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Pasadena false median bottom due to $8k deadline rush to buy...

Zillow median trends to this week:
Pasadena:

http://images3.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6106/IS14ak4q56dcw4j.jpg

By neighborhood:
(1) North Arroyo  (2) North Central (3)  North East
(4) West Center  (5) Mid Center    (6)  East Center
(7) South Arroyo (8) South            (9)  South East

1:

2:

3:

4:

5:

6:
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September 16 2009 - Pasadena
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Profile picture for blue screen exile
7:

8:


9:


1) http://images2.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6107/ISts4skctc2zz7.jpg
2) http://images2.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6107/IS14ak8kdabf9ur.jpg
3) http://images1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6107/IS14ak9ygokdfab.jpg
4) http://images3.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6107/ISts4q3cj55w2r.jpg
5) http://images1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6107/IS14akaqeybteoz.jpg
6) http://images1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6107/IS14akb76psa74z.jpg
7) http://images3.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6108/IS14akpdnznd95v.jpg
8) http://images1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6108/IS14akpzx273j4z.jpg
9) http://images1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6108/ISts49fb8s16eb.jpg
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September 16 2009
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By ZipCode:
91101:

http://images1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6108/ISts47eyrzcqzn.jpg
91103:

http://images1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6108/IS14aktprbo5iub.jpg
91104:

http://images3.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6108/ISts466sh2kiw3.jpg
91105:

http://images2.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6108/IS14akv3azlz4ir.jpg
91106:

http://images3.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6108/IS14akvv5bb6zz7.jpg
91107:

http://images2.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6108/IS14akwmvoy6rhf.jpg
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September 16 2009
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San Marino (91108):

http://images2.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i1/i6108/IS14aky16zbl4tf.jpg
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September 16 2009
Profile picture for blue screen exile
Links for up to date charts (since the posted charts and references will become old):

Pasadena
(1)NA    (2)NC    (3)NE
(4)WC   (5)MC    (6)EC
(7)SA    (8)S       (9)SE

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September 16 2009
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91103       91104
91105       91101     91107
                91106
                             91108 (San Marino)
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September 16 2009
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So, when do the charts indicate the "bottom" occured, and what was the minimum Median?
Pasadena - early May         $514k
North Arroyo - mid June      $723k
North Central - late May      $360k
North East    - late April       $632k

West Center - late April       $374k
Mid Center    - late Feb        $469k
East Center  - mid May        $538k

South Arroyo- early July       $787k
South          -  late Feb         $436k
South East  -  late Dec         $560k

91101 -  late March    $394k
91103  - late April       $431k
91104  - early May      $492k
91105  - early July       $821k
91106  - mid Feb        $458k
91107  - early May      $575k

San Mareno (91108) - late August   $1,310k
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September 16 2009
I agree -- this is likely a false bottom. I believe home values have further to fall in Pasadena (10% more?) over the next 12 months.

We shall see though...
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September 18 2009
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I feel sorry for people eager for their $8000 tax credit.  They'll be underwater in a year.
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September 18 2009
Nice post Pasa.

Good to see that you guys are keeping up the good fight to help inform the buying public.

I hope things only go 10% further down in my hood -  we'll see  8)
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September 18 2009
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I disagree -- I think we've hit bottom in LA.
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September 18 2009
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Great graphwork Pasa! I think that people can get a lot of good information.
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September 18 2009
Profile picture for blue screen exile
What is really difficult to interpret is why neighborhood 8 (South) & 91106 zip code is so different in response compared to neighborhood 7 (south Arroyo) & 91105 zip code as well as San Marino 91108 zip code.

Obvously the condos and the areas closer to the central district are pulling the median down and allowing the low end rush to buy to appear to cause a steep rise.  But this makes it very difficult to track what is actually occuring in actual neighborhoods that are much more similar to San Marino
and the San Rafael area of Pasadena.

From the graphs and median values, it appears that higher priced homes and neighborhoods have not rose, but have leveled out.  Even these I expect to continue to decline if the lower priced homes start dropping or slowing in sales due to lack of an "incentive"; but of course Congress is going to pass some kind of incentive for 2010 as they want to keep the housing market propped up for employment and income tax purposes.
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September 19 2009
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droopy-d -

Wishful thinking.  The only think that can keep Los Angeles county from dropping futher is that it is "built out".  But it is only sort of built out, people are still building, and the population is not rising.  LayOffs and downsizing are occuring in many fields.  Even the entertainment industry is feeling preasure to move elsewhere.  Sure, some sectors are strong, but not sufficient to counteract the downward preasure in the numerous other sectors.  School Enrollment is down across the board, both public and private.  Costs have risen, but funding has tightened.  All city, county and state budgets are strugling.  It is not going to turn around overnight.

Yes, the minimum condo "for sale" price dropped from $300k down to about $100k in Pasadena in less than 1.5 years.  And I don't think any condo prices will go below $75k, but that doesn't mean there isn't downward preasure across most other market sectors.  The Federal Tax Credit incentive is not enough on its own to deal with the massive number of loans that have little to no equity and are a strain for the household budget.  Though the government wants to prop up the market and devalue the dollar to get us out of this, we really aren't paying enough attention to the demographics shift and what that implies for the economy.  Nor are we paying enough attention to the sustainability issues of our present "throw away" society and the mindset shift that is slowly occuring and is being forced by lack of landfill capacity.

Sure, NASA is doing well (Federal deficit Funding), an BioTech is doing well, and medical is doing well (imported labor for serving aging population), but these can't make up for the other economic trends.
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September 19 2009
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"I disagree -- I think we've hit bottom in LA."

You probably thought the same thing two years ago as well.     

link
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September 21 2009
Profile picture for blue screen exile
Too bad I didn't start this as a "question" instead of a "discussion".  As a "discussion", it is impossible to select a post as "best answer".

Klarek's first post would have been selected as "best" if I had posted as a "question".  Karek's second post would get "second" choice if his first post was not there.
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September 21 2009
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Median Change from last year to minimum,
  and from minimum to present
  and recent change per month:

                   % cg     %cg-up    %cg/mo
Pasadena        -6.4%    1.8%    0.40%
North Arroyo    -10.2%    0.4%    0.14%
North Central    -13.3%    1.9%    0.50%
North East        -4.7%    1.9%    0.39%

West Center    -4.1%    0.8%    0.16%
Mid Center      -2.9%    3.6%    0.53%
East Center     -7.2%    1.3%    0.32%

South Arroyo    -3.8%    0.1%    0.05%
South              -2.2%    3.4%    0.50%
South East      -0.7%    3.0%    0.34%

91101              -3.2%    2.4%    0.41%
91103              -6.7%    2.8%    0.57%
91104              -8.7%    2.4%    0.56%
91105              -4.3%    0.1%    0.05%
91106              -2.3%    4.4%    0.62%
91107              -6.4%    1.7%    0.38%

San Mareno     -9.7%    0.2%    0.18%
  91108
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September 22 2009
 
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