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Pending U.S. Home Resales Surge the Most Since 2001

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nvchaz
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June 2 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes climbed 6.7 percent in April, more than forecast and the fourth increase in five months, as lower prices attracted buyers.

The gain in the index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home resales, was the biggest in more than seven years and followed a 3.2 percent increase in March, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The April reading was up 3.2 percent from the same month a year earlier.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=av5wGKcb_auE&refer=home

June 02 - US

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rjon.101
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also for fun read this article
"San Francisco Area Home Sales Surge on Foreclosures "
And notice that the date is from October 21, 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arIDEg9x_xbA

and prices have just gone down since it was written 8 months ago.

Also what is the sales volume in 2009 verses the years 2003 threw 2006, that would be interesting data if anyone cares to share it. For myself I don't see 3.2 % increase in sales volume from the low of 2008 being a signifacant number in demand to matter or that removing 3.2 % more of the houses from the market will push pricing upward. But it is a sign 3.2 % more people can afford the homes. Now the crimp may become those pesky interest rates going up which always seems to drive prices downward. (just don't now why that happens) and maybe they will come back to 4.5% or maybe they will go to 10.5%

thanks for the article I would have missed it today, even though the bad news in the last paragraph is depressing.( both me and the market)

June 02

Spleng
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Sorry choad,

"think the decline will be linear and simultaneous across markets."

Does not equal:

"Actually prices are still crashing and will continue to do so."

"Or are you just a complete blithering idiot?"

June 02

nvchaz
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You think and say it everyday when you make generalized predictions of further declines without regard to market or market segment.

You said it just a few posts ago:

"Actually prices are still crashing and will continue to do so."

Are you really so self unaware? Or are you just a complete blithering idiot?

June 02

Spleng
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nvchoad: "think the decline will be linear and simultaneous across markets."

Hmmm... I've never thought or said this. Once again you're either lying or confused.

June 02

nvchaz
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Splooge:

You, like most simple minds, think the decline will be linear and simultaneous across markets. That's because you haven't taken time to look at the detail... it is just too easy to snap up some sort of generalized chart or report off the internet and post it.

We have bottomed here in Reno on the low-end. There is no reason the high-end won't pancake down into the support. All the locked-out middle income folks and the underlying demographics suggest that.

June 02

Spleng
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Actually prices are still crashing and will continue to do so. The price of a low end Reno house now will be the price of nicer house in Reno later. I agree interest rates are going higher, but wait long enough and this will depress prices even further. Its going to be about what people can really afford once again.

You're still the king of idiotic pronouncements, your posts are chock full. Trying to sell a V recovery was especially choice.

June 02

nvchaz
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My local MLS just recently got around to marking shorts as such. Prior to that all you could know was in comments. I suspect that NAR has no way of identifying shorts on a data feed out of the MLS if that is what they are relying on.

Anyone know where they get the data from?

If they are just sucking in the MLS data then I would think the data is seriously skewed.

June 02

K101
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Well, in our case, we worked through the listing agent. We gave him our deposit check with the first signed contract. That is now taken into account by the title company who drafts the HUDs in connection with the deal. So, I guess technically there is escrow.

June 02

nvchaz
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Well, If you are right, I'll have to agree with you on that then... this data is skewed. They also state a 30 to 60 day ripple of closes and even if the short sale is sucessful I'm hearing 3 - 6 months for that.

Again, assuming the criteria is the same, month over month should be indicative, but I would discount the YOY completely.

There must be a data source from the title companies indicating opening of escrow, or are you stating that listed shorts are opening escrow when they list?

June 02

K101
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Yep.

June 02

nvchaz
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So what your saying is that if they are listed as pending in the MLS (and I guess only about half are), then that is being reported as under contract by NAR?

Not entirely relevent, since the incremental change from month to month is the significant factor if the criteria is the same. Maybe not YOY since shorts were a much smaller piece of the pie last year.

June 02

K101
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"I would think that the approval hurdles would be lept by the time it goes under contract... but maybe I'm wrong about that since I've never done a short sale. I wouldn't think the owner would want to get under contract not knowing the status of the approval by the bank."

My understanding and experience is that the seller does not know whether a short sale will be approved - or even allowed- until a paperwork package is submitted that includes a signed P&S. Thus, the buyer and seller contract subject to the bank's approval. Typically, the house is then shifted to pending status during the waiting period. Quite often, the approval is never obtained due to buyer impatience, insufficient offer, rejection by an investor (in the case of two or more loans), demand that the seller sign a promissory note (which most will refuse), etc. etc. Then, there are the cases where everything falls in line but the house fails to appraise for the buyer's financing (probably happens much less often now), and so on.

June 02

nvchaz
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Splooge:

If the price is right buy now.... you won't see 5.5% in 2012. Nor will you be seeing any deals on the low end -- the fat cats are gonna grab 'em.

I will have my eye out for a move-up in 2012. But at this point I don't care.

You got locked into your past pronouncements so now you look like an idiot when conditions change. You're ripping generalized statements off the web without thinking through them and you fail to recognize markets and market segments.

You really are a tiresome bore.

June 02

workabee
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Pending doesn't mean anything other than hope for a deal. Let's see 'em closed.

June 02

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"I wonder how many pending contracts are signed, on average, for each short sale property listed? I know that many short sale properties in my area go through at least two different buyers before they actually close. In that way, "pending" does not automatically translate to "closing.""
The pending sell data is compare the "woman to woman", april's pending sell compare to march's pending sell, not to march's sold.

June 02

arnie84
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I looked up sales that are under contract in my area & I found out 80% of them say" back up offers" comparde to only 20% that say "pending sale".

June 02

Spleng
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nvchoad you make a good case for waiting to buy until 2012.

June 02

nvchaz
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Yep, if you bothered to read my posts you'd realize that is right in line with my thinking.

After November of this year the housing market is really gonna tank and will be mordibund due to complete credit collapse and PPIP consortiums retaining assets. This will last until 2012. Buy now or forever hold your piece, (at least until 2012)

Splooge -- you are such a victim of your own rhetoric.

June 02

Spleng
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From nvchoads linked article, which closes with some good info making the exact opposite point:

"Home-purchase activity could wallow at moribund levels," said Scott Anderson, a senior economist at Wells Fargo&Co. in New York. The emerging "green shoots" of recovery may be stamped out, "forcing us to yet again downgrade our outlook for the economy," he wrote in a May 29 note to clients.

"A weak job market is another reason economists say any rebound in housing would be slow to develop. The unemployment rate, which reached a 25-year high of 8.9 percent in April, may climb to almost 10 percent by the end of 2009, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month."

"Rising defaults and foreclosures are likely to also keep property values under pressure for months, making buying a home a risky proposition. The U.S. mortgage delinquency rate jumped to 9.12 percent in the first quarter, and the share of loans entering foreclosure rose to 1.37 percent, the Mortgage Bankers Association said last week. Both figures were the highest in records going back to 1972."

June 02

nvchaz
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True, lot of shorts out there.

I would think that the approval hurdles would be lept by the time it goes under contract... but maybe I'm wrong about that since I've never done a short sale. I wouldn't think the owner would want to get under contract not knowing the status of the approval by the bank.

June 02

arnie84
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Yea this news comes out&the bank stocks go down WTF? Go figure.

June 02

K101
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I wonder how many pending contracts are signed, on average, for each short sale property listed? I know that many short sale properties in my area go through at least two different buyers before they actually close. In that way, "pending" does not automatically translate to "closing." Short sales account for about 35% of the listings in my hood.

June 02

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