Please help me price this house

Profile picture for orange hammer
Hey, thanks in advance for your help. I am a first time buyer. I have found a house I like.
My realtor doesn't seem like the aggressive type. Nevertheless, I am the type who wants a good deal so I might have to be the one to push for the best price. But I don't want to be
too far off base, either. The house I found is at this address: 11400 W. 45th PL Wheat Ridge, CO. The asking price is 150K. The Zestimate is 170K. The last time it was sold was 1991 for 62K. I remember reading somewhere that I should account for 4% in appreciation for each year to get a fair idea of what the house is really worth, thereby not being skewed by the housing bubble years when appreciation jumped high. I added 4% each year
from 1991 to 2010 (19 years), compounding the 4 % appreciation each year, and by this method
the house would be worth about 130K. However, Zillow's price chart goes back 10 years,
and 10 years ago the zestmate for this house was 150K, which is exactly what
the asking price is now. So....  I am new to this so I am welcome to your suggestions and criticisms. Thanks.
ps.. for the record, the house backs up to a industrial rental business. They rent
cranes, etc. I think I would rather have a rental business behind me than another house.
So this is a selling point, in my opinion. Thanks again. 
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January 17 2010 - Wheat Ridge
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Answers (5)

Best Answer
Profile picture for sunnyview
The other posters have good advice to offer and I definitely agree with them. You should not base your offer on Zillow. A local Realtor needs to give you a CMA (comparative market report) of similar houses that have sold in the last 60-90 days and an explanation of whether prices in your area are tracking up or down based on the closed/new listings on the MLS. 

You can use this calculator here to see what the appreciation for your area has been, but it is a very rough guide and I have personally seen problems with the numbers that it gives especially if a house was purchased below the going market and then fixed up. The Zestimates on Zillow can be less helpful than the charts for your larger area or zip code like this one here. If you want more chart data go to the homes main page and click o the small chart to get more info. Charts are not a replacement for good Realtor advice, but they can you get a feel for you local market and help you ask better questions of your real estate professional. Zillow is good tool, but you need local eyes to help you submit a solid offer. There are lots of professionals in your area on Zillow that can help if you do not have an agent already.
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January 18 2010
Profile picture for Homes by Jess
Zillow's estimate is not something you should base an offer on. Nor are county assessments. Your realtor should be giving you an accurate competitive market analysis to determine value. The market in the past has no bearing on what's going on right now as far as trying to compute value using old numbers. My advice to you is don't look at a price range you can't afford hoping to get into something for a steal, it doesn't work. It will only frustrate you and the reality is homes sell for what they are worth. No seller is going to take $130K if the numbers say they can sell for $170K. Just to avoid a lot of frustration stay within your means. I hope this helps.

P.S. the commercial property in the back may not be a selling point to many people so this is something to consider for re-sell.

Jessica McAnally
Your Castle Real Estate

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January 23 2010
Profile picture for jkonstant
Unfortunately any method used to detemine value will likely not take the heavy equipment rental neighbor into consideration. This is an example of how something outside the four corners of the real property (land) can have a negative (or positive) influence. I'm sorry to sound so skeptical, but I just don't see much likelihood of appreciation with the sort of neighbor that might attract the EPA's attention. Ask yourself how much more valuable and desireable it might be if you adjoined a park. Think resale.
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January 19 2010

The 4% appreciation method is a weak method of analysis to obtain value. There are several methods typically used, but the most common is a comparable market analysis. As Alisa Hagner said, you should ask your broker to produce a CMA (comparative market analysis) to support the value. If it can not be supported, your broker should be able to tell you precisely what range is acceptable. Zillow prices are not a perfect reflection of value, though they are very good, I would look at the range as particularly helpful. Also, in today's market, value is not correlated to what a buyer will pay. Often it is more a reflection of how despirate the seller is. Finding that information is key to getting the best deal. Good Luck!

If you have not signed a written working relationship with a broker, try using one of the active zillow contributing Realtors. We know Wheat Ridge and can help you find the best value!

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January 18 2010
Profile picture for AlisaDenver
Ask your broker for a written CMA.  Did you sign a Buyer Broker agreement?

Then what you need is called an appraisal.  If you are getting a loan an appraisal will happen right after your inspection. 
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January 17 2010
 

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