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- chuckdog24
- Contributions:1520
James, The Case-Schiller index supports your optimism about the status of the Portland market (as well as the Seattle market). As a regional hold out in the declining national market, how much of your local market prosperity do you contribute to Californians migrating north to more affordable coastline cities?
- Terri Linnell, "DebtsNMesses"
- Contributions:6728
As the NAR is quick to point out (because they don't want the focus to be on the national at this moment) some markets ARE doing well (even if MOST markets are not). We use factual data here as much as possible, and share it among each other. I would migrate out of here in a heartbeat if my hubby would leave my family! --he loves his inlaws :-( But who am I to complain?
- Bubbleburst
- Contributions:378
"With all the media out there promoting a doom and gloom market, is that really working on the public or do you use factual data inorder to come to a conclusion? " Do you really think this is all the medias fault. Many seem to blame them. No one was blaming them when they reported on RE being red hot. Looks like more hypocrisy from a Realtor.
- Aldreth
- Contributions:4226
The Portland market is horrible, so is the Seattle market. Get a grip.
- ReedNeighborhood
- Contributions:19
I don't know if the data is out yet to support that the "Portland market is horrible," but the operative word here ought to be "yet." I'm not a realtor, and don't have access to a lot of the serious/legit data out there, but I have my own data. I track a number of houses on the market from opening day to sale date (I know, what a nerd) in order to see what the difference ultimately is. Almost nothing seems to be going for asking price these days, and an awful lot of houses in my datasheet of 100 or so homes for sale are dropping 5-10% and sometimes more.
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
Aldreth, that is why you are so missed here.
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
Also, I noticed that the Portland inventory is 44% higher than it was six months ago. I'd be wary of buying there, that is an indication of a future drop in values.
- chuckdog24
- Contributions:1520
I agree that "yet" is the key word to describe the Northwest market. That growing inventory & the generic housing woes will soon take root in that mossy NW soil.
- James White, "jamesjwhite"
- Contributions:38
Our appreciation is still 7+%. It is a buyers market and a great time to buy. A lot of property is still on the market because of national media attention and a lot of sellers are ready to look closer at the offers that are presented. I like the market and I'm closing transactions to the benefit of my clients. Most of you are proving to me what I believed to be true, the media has done it's job once again and most believe TV.
Thanks for the input!
Thanks for the input!
- chuckdog24
- Contributions:1520
James, Great time to buy??? That's a bit over the top for ANY zip code in the nation at the moment.
Glad that you "like the market".
The question to buyers in your area is: Would you buy at the peak of this graph & expect home prices to continue to outpace inflation by this drastic of a rate?
http://macromarkets.com/csi_housing/MSA/portland.asp
Catch a falling knife & you're sitting on the bottom of the world!
Glad that you "like the market".
The question to buyers in your area is: Would you buy at the peak of this graph & expect home prices to continue to outpace inflation by this drastic of a rate?
http://macromarkets.com/csi_housing/MSA/portland.asp
Catch a falling knife & you're sitting on the bottom of the world!
- chuckdog24
- Contributions:1520
I'm still blown away by the NIMBY (not in my back yard) type of thinking by some agents/cheerleaders. Can homes appreciate at 7+% indefinitely? Yes if inflation is also 7+%. (be careful what you wish for)
The darn media finally turned the headlights on a situation that many of us saw comming years ago. The new aged economics that the NAR was selling have now been exposed, leaving some scrambling to blame the media for the bad press.
The darn media finally turned the headlights on a situation that many of us saw comming years ago. The new aged economics that the NAR was selling have now been exposed, leaving some scrambling to blame the media for the bad press.
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
" Our appreciation is still 7+%. It is a buyers market and a great time to buy. "
Both of those statements are completely false. Again, inventory is 44% above what it was six months ago and the median price there is down 8%. It is an AWFUL time to buy, despite what the leeches say.
Both of those statements are completely false. Again, inventory is 44% above what it was six months ago and the median price there is down 8%. It is an AWFUL time to buy, despite what the leeches say.
- portland_real_estate
- Contributions:1
The inventory is up. But prices seem to be doing okay.
It apears the media is reporting that Oregon's forclosure rates are lower than other areas. I read it has the 3rd lowest foreclosure rate. What is the rent to price ratio in Portland?
- BuyEqualsRent
- Contributions:1491
It's amazing how some people still insist on posting garbage like this. 7% appreciation? 9 months ago, maybe...
James - I have friends who invested in portland and they have -ve equity rightnow. Also, my friend is loosing money every month by renting out the house. I wouldn't buy ANY WHERE in america rightnow unless you get super-duper deals. You should only buy if you have +ve cashflow on rentals or if your rent vs buy makes sense. AKKA - based on my research there too many properties are on rental market and vacancy rate is pretty high. It is not a good place as JAMES projects.
- BuyEqualsRent
- Contributions:1491
Portland and Seattle are not in any way special or immune. They are just later in the curve than most markets, because the tech bust in 2001 hit them harder than most places. But they both ran up over 100% in seven years. Not in any way sustainable. Even a 30% drop doesn't get them back to historical norms.
- Aldreth
- Contributions:4226
<---Sell?- . . .
- Contributions:3384
The chart units are too course, and the data ends too soon, and the chart is not looking at individual house sizes in individual neighborhoods; thus cannot make a blanket statement, but the chart appears to indicate the peak of the bubble in that area is near; and the best time to sell is right before the peak when the buyer does not realize the prices are about to start falling.
- . . .
- Contributions:3384
It is interesting to see the "average" change in value on the chart over a 30 year period. 7% annual would be an increase of 1.967 times in 10 years 7.177% would be double in 10 years; I use a rule of thumb that in most sectors, prices double every 10 years, which really means that the value of the dollar decreases by 50% every 10 years.
So, what does the chart indicate for the averages?
7.58% annual when averaged on a quarterly basis, or 2.076 times in 10 years
7.13% annual when averaged on an annual basis, or 1.991 times in 10 years.
The rule of thumb is only a rule of thumb; it is not some magic formula that gives an accurate value in all cases; it just gives a quick means of comparison.
Again, the value has not appreciated at all in 30 years; the dollar has only become worth less by 3 decades of cutting the value in half. In otherwords, the dollar is only worth 12.5 cents compared to the value at the beginning of that chart.
Living here in Oregon. I can say in any area where it was over built with lots of new contruction for sale, then throw in a big helping of existing homes for sale the market is soft and the prices are slipping and it will go down this year as people slash the prices to unload homes.
Lots of people from out of state bought homes in bigger towns as "flips" or rentals and are now dumping those homes.
The smaller towns with less housing units, and no new contruction to compete with. They holding their own but are not making any price gains and its taking a long time to get those sold too. Oregon's market is slummpy and stale. Oregon just got to the bubble party a little later.
- Aldreth
- Contributions:4226
A dollar is only worth a dollar.
The chart shows what appreciation levels have been for quite a long time. As anyone can plainly see, they have outpaced inflation for a long, long, long, long, time. The chart shows exactly what is happening around this country. FLEDGELING APPRECIATION FOLLOWED BY... GUESS WHAT... NEGATIVE APPRECIATION.
I've got a dollar, and it still buys a large candybar.
- . . .
- Contributions:3384
And I used to buy that same large candybar (before they swapped out the real ingredients) for $0.10
The dollar will always decline in value over time. Sure there is fluxuation; but if you look at 10 years or more, the dollar will always decline in value. Even when there was a metal standard behind it, it still declined in value.
Same with all currencies. It is especially true in nations with progressive taxes as the government gets to collect a larger share.
As far as negative appreciation; watch the day trading and see major positive and negative appreciation in the same day.... It is meaningless; one cannot time rapid price fluxuations sufficiently. But for housing; one could buy at the valleys and sell at the peak if they had the resources and could wait an average of 7 years per cycle. Not something for most of us since we really only have resources for the house that we live in and don't like moving, and 6%+ comes off the top for commissions.
Where is James White, the original poster who told us how good the market was in october? where is krismer? suze, and the rest of the sunshine crowd???
- . . .
- Contributions:3384
But even if it does appreciate at an average of 7% annual... if the average interest rate is 7%; and you have maintenance, taxes, upkeep.. Has one gained anything?
The only benifit is a place to live; or in the case of not living there, possibly some rent income.
- BuyEqualsRent
- Contributions:1491
The way the dollar is going right now, inflation is going to smack us in the head in about 12 months...
- Jesse Knight, "Realtor_Online"
- Contributions:56
I believe the Portland market is good. It's obviously not as "good" as it was a couple years ago, but homes are still appreciation, the market's still turning, and foreclosures aren't particularly high. Keep in mind that there's more than one reason to buy a home. So many of us fell into the "appreciation is king" thinking. We were looking at real estate purely as an investment. We all know that historically real estate is a very safe investment. That knowledge coupled with the high appreciation rates turned everybody into pseudo-investors. It was all about appreciation, tax savings, HELOCs, etc. Keep in mind, though, that most people actually buy a home as a place to live. We buy homes to be home owners. We buy homes to raise our families in. We buy homes because we get transferred to new cities. We buy homes because we no longer want to pay rent. We buy homes to live in our "dream neighborhood". We buy homes to feel like we're growing up.
Basically, there are a lot of reasons to buy a home that has nothing to do with investing.
People buy homes when they need to buy a home!
- Jesse Knight, "Realtor_Online"
- Contributions:56
And, yes, there are very good reason why Portland's market has remained steady. The Urban Growth Boundary artificially limits supply. New homes are not as desirable here as in many other places, so we don't have as large a glut of new construction sitting on the market. Portland currently has continuous population growth. Nowhere is immune from a down market, but Portland is about as insulated as it gets.
- Aldreth
- Contributions:4226
Uhh, portland is negative.
- BuyEqualsRent
- Contributions:1491
And moving south very fast. The areas that held up better over the past 12 months will fall faster than the rest as the money supply tightens. Investors fled to those areas hoping to keep the deals going. Once that money is removed, things will adjust fast. Just look at the rate-of-change for inventory in Portland and Seattle.
Portland Oregon - The Market is Good
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