Profile picture for Cobrand Demo4

XYZ Brokerage

Email: ryan@xyzbrokerage.com

Phone: (206) 555-1234

Website: www.xyzbrokerage.com

Back to Results

Tools

Partner Tools


Predictions--4+ Years Later

October 2002, Money Magazine indicated whether they thought 5 cities were "ready to burst." Let's compare their predictions to the data from this site:

http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/

Boston--they said no. Median price then about $340,000, now about $390,000.

San Francisco--they said yes. Median price then about $500,000, now about $750,000.

Naples FL--they said maybe. The site I'm using doesn't have the data for that--someone else will need to provide it.

Detroit, they said yes. Again, the site I'm using doesn't have the data.

Seattle--they said yes. Median price then about $230,000, now about $375,000.

Colorado Springs, they said maybe. Again no data.

Of the ones they said yes on, only Detroit probably proved right. The other two were up about 50%.

The one they said no on, was only up about 15%.

I don't know what went into making their predictions, but it was presumably a lot more than what most of those here put into making their predictions.

Predicting real estate prices is nearly impossible. The NAR proves that year after year.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 24 2007 - US

Replies (58)

Profile picture for !bank_owned!
means absolutely nothing...nothing significant happened in and around Oct 2002. 2003 to early 2006...well, that's a different story. many things went wrong, and they went wrong for a long time.

as someone mentioned in another post, the housing market has hit an iceberg and it's only a matter a time when it begins sinking and fast.

Kary, this is not a prediction...this is fact. deny it all you want and 1 year from now you'll finally say to yourself "wow, this is really bad!!!" that said, enough of the nonsense and statements like "predictions are exactly that...predictions."

this is the law of economics and forces that are beyond anyone's control. the damage has been done...it just takes time for it to rear its ugly head.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 24 2007
Profile picture for aBT2B
Contributions: 407
lol

wow, kary actually dug up his old magazines to prove us something but unfortunately, it has got totally nothing to do with whats happening now.

good try though.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 24 2007
Profile picture for Space_Truss
Contributions: 177
Even European TV and newspapers are talking about the collapse in US housing market and its short term effects on stock markets.

Probably here in States, no body wants to publish a realistic forecast on TV, which would really kill the market and the economy. Sorry, Glen Back was talking about the collapse two days ago, and on his show president of somewhere (I don't remember) was talking about a big crisis.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 24 2007
Profile picture for dnesemeier
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 1379
It's important to believe everything we hear on TV. Just in the last 10 minutes I learned:

Every weight loss product really works (I thought you could just stop eating and get the same result).

You can completely erase puffiness and crow's feet and look 10 years younger in 90 seconds (simply amazing!).

When you go fishing you will ALWAYS catch huge, whopper fish when you use a chartreuse/pink wigglin' tickler spinner bait.

You can take one herb tablet once every two months and your colon will work perfectly (what's wrong with oatmeal?)

Nothing sucks like and Electrolux.

If you buy the right carpet cleaner, stains will NEVER come back. Eureka!

It's all true!
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
What it proves is that people were talking about the real estate bubble back then. Making predictions back then.

If you think that doesn't show something, find me a source that has made predictions about real estate prices, and was accurate. You will not be able to do that. That is a fact.

What you think will happen in the future: opinion. Value--$0.00.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
Profile picture for lucydjacobs
Contributions: 1271
After the LA riots following the Rodney King case verdicts in early'90, business articles talked of how Southern Californians were leaving that life of commuting misery and big-city ethic tension for other states, and the real-estate market would collapse.

Well, he market kind of got hotterand hotter and hotter.

So ya never know.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
Profile picture for jdsdaddy
Contributions: 504
You are absolutely right that an individual opinion has little to no value. But what if that opinion is shared by many and growing daily? Will that not have a negative effect on home values?

Many people bought during the boom based on predictions that values would only rise. Can't the opposite hold true now?
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
Yes, it can have an effect. The news reports of the last few weeks might possibly hurt the market more than the actual impact of the changes in financing.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
Profile picture for !bank_owned!
Kary and Daniel, really tired of this non-sense you guys speak of. Tell you what...why don't we put a little wager on this?!

I bet each of you $100 that one year from today (Aug. 25, 2007) the So Cal median price market will be at least 20% below what is was in July 2007. If I'm wrong, I'll pay each of you $100 and pay via PayPal.

$100 isn't a lot of money I know but I will enjoy relishing in the fact that I WILL take your money.

You guys willing to put your money where your mouths are?
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
Profile picture for !bank_owned!
bump
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
Profile picture for dnesemeier
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 1379
NO! My interest is on the right coast, Virginia, one each.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
Profile picture for aBT2B
Contributions: 407
i want in on this too.

easiest $100 i ever made!


the more foreclosures there are, the more house prices will go down....

and there is a concrete economic law to it...

ever heard of supply and demand?
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
Why would I want to bet on the CA real estate market? First, I'm not making any predictions. Second, I really don't think much of California. Why should I bet on a state's economy when they created an electrical energy crisis that just about forced it into bankruptcy when there was a simple solution? I'd rather bet on the Raiders winning the Superbowl! ;-)
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
Profile picture for aBT2B
Contributions: 407
yeah,

thats what i thought you would say...

lol
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
Profile picture for Walty804
Contributions: 1660
lame comment;

" I really don't think much of California"

why would you bag on a state that some of your peers work in.

lame.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 25 2007
Profile picture for aBT2B
Contributions: 407
he was at a loss of words, i'm thinking...

he might as well just wave the white flag....
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Profile picture for Aratinga
Contributions: 429
Karey wrote:
"If you think that doesn't show something, find me a source that has made predictions about real estate prices, and was accurate. You will not be able to do that. That is a fact."

Uhhh, don't be so sure, Karey.

Here's a scarily prescient article written in November of 2005, while the California housing boom was still in full swing: http://piggington.com/node/596/print

Significant quote from above article:

"It is obviously not the case that fully half of all homes are being bought by the most highly-paid 9% of San Diegans. Instead, what's going on is that people are getting around the low affordability by making very small down payments and getting "creative" loans whose monthly payments start quite low but increase over time (interest-only, negative amortization, adjustable-rate, or "option ARM" mortgages). This kind of borrowing is quite prevalent?of all San Diego mortgages issued in 2004, 80% were adjustable-rate, 47% were interest-only, and 27% involved no down payment. Similar statistics apply to all of Southern California.

While this "buy now, pay later" strategy has worked well thus far, it has rendered the Southern California housing market unusually vulnerable to rising interest rates or tighter lending standards. If rates were to rise or lending standards tighten (e.g. higher required down payments, lower acceptable payment to income ratios, or fewer "stated income" loans), large swaths of potential buyers would effectively be priced out of the market at current home valuations.

Moreover, if rates are significantly higher when all those ARMs start to adjust, some of the more overleveraged ARM-holders might find themselves unable to afford the higher payments and be forced to sell their homes. The resulting increase in "motivated sellers," combined with the above-described inability for homes to be purchased at current prices, would almost guarantee a significant home price decline."
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Profile picture for Coconutcream
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Profile picture for Tuckerton
close Profile picture for Tuckerton

Tuckerton

Little Egg Harbor

Real Estate Agent

View my 4 listings

Contributions: 219
Kary, you had me laughing here. You and Dan making bets with wanta be grim reapers who hide theiir identity to protect their right to stupidity. If you ever collect, let me know and I'll buy you lunch. Good post but why bother?
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Walty wrote: "lame comment;

" I really don't think much of California"

why would you bag on a state that some of your peers work in.

lame. "

There are real estate agents in all 50 states. Do I have to be positive about local governments in all 50 states just because real estate agents work there? That's rather silly.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Aratinga wrote: "Karey wrote:
"If you think that doesn't show something, find me a source that has made predictions about real estate prices, and was accurate. You will not be able to do that. That is a fact."

Uhhh, don't be so sure, Karey. "

I'm sorry, I should have been clearer. Rather obviously there have been entities predicting a downturn in the real estate market. I'm talking about an entity that makes specific predictions on a regular basis (e.g. prices will go up or down X% next year) and is accurate.

The NAR would qualify, except for the accuracy part.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Profile picture for Walty804
Contributions: 1660
kary-

silly is trying to clean up your comment by saying it was goverment motivated. you were clearly in defence mode to another post.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Walty, who do you think I was referring to when I said "they" created an electrical crisis? I was referring to the state legislature that passed the poorly drafted measure practically unanimously, the state's governor that was recalled (who mis-managed and prolonged the crisis), and the governor before that (who signed the legislation)

I'm a strong believer in the local economy affecting local real estate prices, and local government plays a big roll in the local economy.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Profile picture for Walty804
Contributions: 1660
kary, ok thats fine but thats not what your tone reflected for me resding the original post. it sound more like bagging on california because the guy who you were provoked by was from there and challanging you to some bet. buddy.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Profile picture for !bank_owned!
that's what I thought!

how's this if you accept the wager, I'll gladly reveal my real identity, work email address and cell phone number. oh yeah, I'll also reveal my paypal account name since you'll need that to make payment.

hey Tuckerton, I forgot about you...I'll gladly extend this offer to you. I have nothing to hide...my "anonymous" identity means nothing. I'll gladly reveal it if you guys are willing to put some skin in the game. If NOT, I'll understand and FULLY REALIZE that ALL of YOU ARE AGREEING WITH ME...that the MARKET IS GOING DOWN and GOING DOWN HARD!

Of course, it may also mean you don't have a $100 to spare since you'll need to save every penny during the impending and massive correction!

In either case, my offer is still on the table!
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Nope, I only mentioned CA because that's the market that the proposed wager was based on. Oh, and BTW, I am a Raiders fan, so I would rather bet on them winning the Superbowl, even though that's a huge longshot.

If I were going to bet, I'd probably bet against our market in that a decline from last year in say September, 2007's figures is not all that unlikely given how long it's been going up, and the news of August. But I've been expecting that for a few months based on our inventory and it hasn't happened yet. It's part of the reason I don't like making predictions--these things are impossible to predict.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Profile picture for !bank_owned!
bump
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Profile picture for Seattle Agent
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 464
kary, you rock.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Profile picture for Walty804
Contributions: 1660
wrong. he rattled you. your cool was lost for a moment.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007
Profile picture for mrfnuts
Contributions: 1353
I would like to add, that if this thread began with an October 2002 Money Magazine article, I would like to show you the June 13th, 2005 Time Magazine Cover:

http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,1101050613,00.html

This is not an argument for whether real-estate is going up or down, but, merely to point out that just because 1 magazine predicted incorrectly in 2002, does not mean someone predicting similar things to said 2002 article today are incorrect.

What media should say is irrelevant, it fact, at best once the mainstream media catches on to some sort of investing venue, all the easy money has been made, and the trend is nearly at the end.

I still advocate, that if I can rent the equivalent property (same neighborhood, distance to work, taxes, city services, you name it.... consider an option of the same house) for about a third to one half of the monthly after tax costs of owning it, than obviously there is a disconnect between asset value and income potential.

You don't have to call it a bubble, but, I simply make the point that IMHO it's a far better deal to rent at this time.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem
Close
Content Flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 26 2007

Have a question? Ask it here.

What's this?
Close

By starting a discussion, you can expect more of an interactive, back-and-forth experience where the conversation can go in many different directions.

Or start a discussion

 
Most Active Real Estate Agents
Subscribe via RSS
  1. 435 listings
    Local Expert
  2. 297 listings
    Local Expert
  3. 219 listings
    Local Expert
  4. 179 listings
    Local Expert
  5. 143 listings
    Local Expert
Related Discussions
Discussion Slim chances of getting mortgage approval with not enough for full closing costs?
  • Last reply by Miriam Peck
  • 40 minutes ago
Discussion What should my offer be?
  • Last reply by Miriam Peck
  • 50 minutes ago
Discussion How long to wait for property under contract?
  • Last reply by Cindy LaPeer
  • 2 hours ago
Discussion Buyers agent on hourly/fixed fees
  • Last reply by NWHome.us
  • 5 hours ago
Discussion Seattle Area November Home Sales Up vs '08, Down vs. October
  • Posted by Sam DeBord
  • 6 hours ago
Current Last Week
Need a Mortgage?

Zillow Mortgage Marketplace

  • Competitive rates
  • Accurate, custom quotes
  • Thousands of lenders

... and, it's free and anonymous

Get instant mortgage quotes
Estimated purchase price Current mortgage balance Desired loan amount
98104

Learn about Zillow Mortgage Marketplace

Zillow Poll:
Suggested by Toodlesbug
Instead of desert landscaping, I want
Be A Good Neighbor

Zillow® Advice depends on each member to keep it a safe, fun, and positive place. If you see abuse, flag it. More on our Good Neighbor Policy

pageName