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As far as predictions, I think it is going to really depend on area. Our Philly house was only $40k - how much could it possibly drop? Heck the mortgage is well under 400/mo (with PITI), and that is so much less than rent here.
But our Seattle area house? I cringe every time I look. There are many area in that region that are fine, and ours will be eventually because it is a really nice area and below the jumbo. Other areas? Most of California, full of unsustainable building (sure, let's build houses >1.5 hours from any area where there is living wage jobs, people will commute)? Florida, where a good portion of the population is retired ex pat's from New England (fixed income)?
Any area in the jumbo loan category is going to have a hard time. It is exceptionally difficult to get those houses loans right now and given the economy most folks aren't plunking down the amount in cash, even if they have it. Plus since there are such low sales in that category in most areas there are very few comps, which makes appraisal value an issue.
I really hope all these comments about our economic down turns are at the extreme negative end. I'd like to believe we are on the track to a recovery if even it's slow. The housing sales is up, the consumer confidence is up, the stock is heading up regardless the 10.2% unemployment... many many indicators are showing position ways. I've been battling to purchase a home in Austin. A Certain bracket of the homes are not moving, nor pricing changes. I think the statements of more lower housing prices really only affect majority part of real estates, but not some others.
Please don't forget. Americans had also made a lot of money during the boom. We just have to spend carefully on what we have right now to ride out this tough time. It was nice to be able to eat out almost everyday in the past, but now, not able to eat out doesn't mean we are starving/suffering. Most of us are just got too used to live in comfortable life style, and cry for anything less than luxuries.
Since September 2009
"Americans had also made a lot of money during the boom."
DYeh,
Actually, this is NOT exactly true.
According to the last Census, the 2001-2007 economic expension was heavily skewed towards high-income Americans rather than broadly shared by the entire population. The top 1% of households -one percent- received 2/3 of the growth in national income.
At the same time the income of a median household fell to its lowest level since 1997.
I think they are also pushing "healthcare" to pull people's minds off the economy too. Why else would they be pushing a bill that doesn't accomplish hardly anything they are touting and costs a ridiculous amount of money AND drives up healthcare costs for nearly all Americans?
Since September 2009
"Vivienne.......wow, I didn't expect that from you ;-) "
Lady,
I am a CITIZEN first, and a REALTOR distant second.
And I only quoted the Census ;-)
Since September 2009
... and, it's free and anonymous
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Prices are Going to Significantly Lower
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DebtsNMesses
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Since July 2009
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There is NO way, with this kind of true unemployment being at 1 in 5 out of work, that home prices are even near the bottom, nor is any sort of 'recovery'.
Honestly, I'm not overly worried about US, as you all know we prepared for it, but I am greatly concerned about 'the people', every single person is being affected and all this hype about a 'jobless recovery', recession is ending, BS is just that. It's IMPOSSIBLE to sustain these rediculous housing prices with so many people out of work.
I can honestly see another 50% drop coming... anyone care to name their number? We can meet back here next year and compare! lol
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