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Replies (14)
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4396
Those accuracies are every home valuation website's dream.
It is 1.2% error on the 1st one.
2.7% error on the second one.
and 2.8% error on the third.
there is the other worst website which proven that nothing on this sad world is better than Zestimate.
http://homesand.net/QuickComps.aspx?1522+28th+Ave+W+Seattle+WA&citystatezip=98199?Map=1?AllComps=True
http://homesand.net/QuickComps.aspx?2512+28th+Ave+W+Seattle+WA&citystatezip=98199?Map=1?AllComps=True
http://homesand.net/QuickComps.aspx?2511+29th+Ave+W+Seattle+WA&citystatezip=98199?Map=1?AllComps=True
It is 1.2% error on the 1st one.
2.7% error on the second one.
and 2.8% error on the third.
there is the other worst website which proven that nothing on this sad world is better than Zestimate.
http://homesand.net/QuickComps.aspx?1522+28th+Ave+W+Seattle+WA&citystatezip=98199?Map=1?AllComps=True
http://homesand.net/QuickComps.aspx?2512+28th+Ave+W+Seattle+WA&citystatezip=98199?Map=1?AllComps=True
http://homesand.net/QuickComps.aspx?2511+29th+Ave+W+Seattle+WA&citystatezip=98199?Map=1?AllComps=True
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4396
2.7% error on the second one -> 6.25% error on the second one
- dwbowers
- Contributions:9
Here's a recent example that shows that Zillow estimates are still seriously inaccurate.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2463-Montavista-Pl-W-Seattle-WA-98199/48726748_zpid/#%7Bscid=hdp-site-map-list-address%7D
Zillow values this house at over $900K. The house sold for $540K in 2003 and I would expect the home to be valued much closer to that amount than $900K.
The owners have been trying without success to sell this house for over $900K for a very long time. Now they're trying to rent it at an inflated unrealistic amount. Zillow's rent estimates may be more on target than their valuations.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2463-Montavista-Pl-W-Seattle-WA-98199/48726748_zpid/#%7Bscid=hdp-site-map-list-address%7D
Zillow values this house at over $900K. The house sold for $540K in 2003 and I would expect the home to be valued much closer to that amount than $900K.
The owners have been trying without success to sell this house for over $900K for a very long time. Now they're trying to rent it at an inflated unrealistic amount. Zillow's rent estimates may be more on target than their valuations.
- wetdawgs
- Contributions:26850
Could you expand on your logic a bit more? The Zestimate on the house at the moment is $867k, and the owners didn't manage to sell for an asking price of $949k. How does that prove the Zestimate is seriously inaccurate?
The data you could present that would make your argument more convincing: 100 most recently sold in a community sales price vs Zestimate the day of (or before) closing and show that there is a statistically significant difference compared to the values Zillow presents in their section on Zestimate Values and accuracy. (Simple statistics - I'll even accept a p value of 0.05)
Or, were you trying to redirect us to an advertisement for a lender?
The data you could present that would make your argument more convincing: 100 most recently sold in a community sales price vs Zestimate the day of (or before) closing and show that there is a statistically significant difference compared to the values Zillow presents in their section on Zestimate Values and accuracy. (Simple statistics - I'll even accept a p value of 0.05)
Or, were you trying to redirect us to an advertisement for a lender?
- dwbowers
- Contributions:9
wetdawg, the house example I presented sold for $560K in 2003. What makes this house worth $867K today? According to Case Shiller home prices have fallen back to 2003 levels in Seattle. I've been watching the Magnolia market closely and homes that are selling are selling at about 2004 level prices.
The example I showed was on the market for a very long time last year at a highly inflated price and now the owner is trying to rent it at an inflated price. Zillow estimates are inflated.
When I see Zillow estimates this far out of whack I submit them here as examples so maybe Zillow staff will correct their estimates.
No, I'm not trying to direct you to any advertisements.
The example I showed was on the market for a very long time last year at a highly inflated price and now the owner is trying to rent it at an inflated price. Zillow estimates are inflated.
When I see Zillow estimates this far out of whack I submit them here as examples so maybe Zillow staff will correct their estimates.
No, I'm not trying to direct you to any advertisements.
- SoCal_Engr
- Contributions:5666
None of your examples with hard data is outside 7%. That's pretty good for an AVM.
Your last example juxtaposes your estimation of value agains the AVM. Until the house actually sells, it's essentially a he-said-she-said.
While $50K is nothing to sneeze at, it makes a huge difference if that is the error margin on $100K or $800K.
Cheers
Your last example juxtaposes your estimation of value agains the AVM. Until the house actually sells, it's essentially a he-said-she-said.
While $50K is nothing to sneeze at, it makes a huge difference if that is the error margin on $100K or $800K.
Cheers
- wetdawgs
- Contributions:26850
Two of the three would make Zillow statisticians very happy - doing better than they claim for the Seattle area The third hasn't sold so it is impossible to evaluate in the model
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21466
For some discussion on Zestimate tolerance range, you might want to read the thread:
Research on Zestimates part 2
For a few of the many other "free" machine generated opinion of approximate value sites, you might want to look at the thread:
What is the most complete list of Home Estimating websites that you have seen?
Machine opinions of approximate value were never meant to be predictions of potential "sold" price. If that is what you though it was, you are mistaken.
Besides, many CMA's are more than 20% off from eventual sold price, and those had site visits, unlike machine generated opinions.
By the way, have you ever collected data on the price of Gasoline at various locations in the same area on the same day for the same grade/product? How about a pair of Jeans?
Zillow's standard deviation of the mean is not much different than these other typical commodities. There is no such thing as a "true value", nor "absolute worth".
The reason individual estimates will not be closer to eventual "sold" price is because the prices paid on the market for homes in an area at any given point in time very extremely widely, just like gasoline or jeans.
If it wasn't for "price persistence" and taking an average of 6 months to sell, home values would fluctuate as wildly as the stock market or commodities.
If you want "fixed" values and "fixed" prices, you will need to move to a communist country. It is just not going to happen in a capitalistic economic system.
Research on Zestimates part 2
For a few of the many other "free" machine generated opinion of approximate value sites, you might want to look at the thread:
What is the most complete list of Home Estimating websites that you have seen?
Machine opinions of approximate value were never meant to be predictions of potential "sold" price. If that is what you though it was, you are mistaken.
Besides, many CMA's are more than 20% off from eventual sold price, and those had site visits, unlike machine generated opinions.
By the way, have you ever collected data on the price of Gasoline at various locations in the same area on the same day for the same grade/product? How about a pair of Jeans?
Zillow's standard deviation of the mean is not much different than these other typical commodities. There is no such thing as a "true value", nor "absolute worth".
The reason individual estimates will not be closer to eventual "sold" price is because the prices paid on the market for homes in an area at any given point in time very extremely widely, just like gasoline or jeans.
If it wasn't for "price persistence" and taking an average of 6 months to sell, home values would fluctuate as wildly as the stock market or commodities.
If you want "fixed" values and "fixed" prices, you will need to move to a communist country. It is just not going to happen in a capitalistic economic system.
- Vince Curtis, "SoCal Appraiser"
- Contributions:4699
Just shows how good Zillow is..some appraisals dont even get that close...
- dwbowers
- Contributions:9
If the home recently sold then it would be reasonable to expect that the Zestimate would be equal to the sales price. There's no reason to have a 5-7% difference on an estimated value if the house just sold since the value of the house should be determined based on the sales price.
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25139
The houses that I have seen sold recently on Zillow do move closer to the actual sales price within about 4-6 weeks in my area. I found that out first hand when I bought an ugly house for less than the going rate per square foot that was in a great neighborhood. After I bought the Zestimate on the house dropped within about 5% of my purchase price.
It has gone up over time from that price because Zillow can see through the numbers on the other sales that I got a good deal. Besides the house is cute as button now that it has been reworked.
It has gone up over time from that price because Zillow can see through the numbers on the other sales that I got a good deal. Besides the house is cute as button now that it has been reworked.
- wetdawgs
- Contributions:26850
"If a home recently sold, it is reasonable to expect that the Zestimate would be equal to sale price" Yes, that is fine for a day or two around the date of the sale closing but the data and the calculations are not static If one were to close on a house today, next week and next month will have different numbers.
Zillow does their values/accuracy calculation using the Zestimate as calculated perhaps the day before the closing date vs the sales price, and then comes up with their % median error. They don't recalculate the day before value and claim 0%. Yes, they do use the new number in the calculations moving forward.
Zillow does their values/accuracy calculation using the Zestimate as calculated perhaps the day before the closing date vs the sales price, and then comes up with their % median error. They don't recalculate the day before value and claim 0%. Yes, they do use the new number in the calculations moving forward.
- Piero Marinucci, "CallPiero"
- Contributions:68
You're right, zestimates for individual properties are wrong, probably 90% of the time.
I think consumers should feel somewhat comfortable with Zillow's numbers on a town, maybe ZIP code, level, but trying to drill down too close to individual properties leads to confusion, and consumers don't know why ro how it works.
I think consumers should feel somewhat comfortable with Zillow's numbers on a town, maybe ZIP code, level, but trying to drill down too close to individual properties leads to confusion, and consumers don't know why ro how it works.
- wetdawgs
- Contributions:26850
@Piero: Can you share with us some statistics on CMAs vs selling prices? I see many happy to criticize Zestimates, but my limited personal experience is that CMAs offer a larger deviation from selling price than Zestimates in my area
Proof that Zillow Estimates are Not Accurate
Sold $969 but Zextimate is $981
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1522-28th-Ave-W-Seattle-WA-98199/48943054_zpid/
Sold $799 Zestimate $849
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2512-28th-Ave-W-Seattle-WA-98199/48663464_zpid/
This home here has been for sale a very long time and the Zestimate is higher than the list price. Obviously the home can't be worth the Zestimate price otherwise it would have sold.
For Sale $749 Zestimate $770
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2511-29th-Ave-W-Seattle-WA-98199/49084172_zpid/
Zillow has a long ways to go to improve their estimates. The examples above are only a few of the many errors I routinely see on Zillow.
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