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Replies (11)
- Debra (Debbie) Rose, "Livingston NJ"
- Contributions:2733
imo, it never was useful, and has always been flawed.
my personal zestimate is 15% OVER what I could get in today's market.......how useful is that?
my personal zestimate is 15% OVER what I could get in today's market.......how useful is that?
- Sharon Lewis, "Sharon Lewis"
- Contributions:3923
Here is how zillow arrives at what it has always called a 'zestimate' sounds like guesstimate, right?
http://www.zillow.com/wikipages/What-is-a-Zestimate/
http://www.zillow.com/wikipages/What-is-a-Zestimate/
- Wes Black
- Contributions:509
Looks like the controversy over Zestimates continues.
- jrtpapa
- Contributions:84
realtor.com has guesstimates also. They just hide em better. Plus they supply a clunky interface. What's not to like?
Zestimates were "off line" in many areas yesterday due to synchronization problems with many of the different servers used for the site. In many cases, they were showing tax assessed value, which is substantially different in many areas, especially California that is impacted by Proposition-13. Zillow reported a little while ago that the Zestimates are back on line in most areas. They believe they have the synchronization issues resolved, except in a few small pockets.
As for the quality? It depends on what you are referring to. If you are hoping for the fluctuations to disappear, no such luck yet. If you are referring to the tolerance range, I've seen narrower tolerance ranges posted several times compared to previous over the past 12 months, thus it is improving. And in some of the non-disclosure areas where the trends were fairly flat way below market value, it appears the estimates are oscillating around numbers that are closer to the list prices in those areas.
As for the quality? It depends on what you are referring to. If you are hoping for the fluctuations to disappear, no such luck yet. If you are referring to the tolerance range, I've seen narrower tolerance ranges posted several times compared to previous over the past 12 months, thus it is improving. And in some of the non-disclosure areas where the trends were fairly flat way below market value, it appears the estimates are oscillating around numbers that are closer to the list prices in those areas.
- Michael MacDonald
- Contributions:25
I find the Z-estimates significantly under true market value in my marketplace.
What I DO like about Zillow is they list properties similar and close in proximity to the subject which are currently listed for sale....this IS a very good market indicator.
What I DO like about Zillow is they list properties similar and close in proximity to the subject which are currently listed for sale....this IS a very good market indicator.
Missouri is a "non disclosure" state; the sold prices are not in the county records. Zillow only gives it a "1 star" in their "about Zestimates" link at the bottom of the page. They state 1-star means they don't have the data to calculate the tolerance range. (Meaning no "sold prices").
It is believed they are modeling to the list prices, and using an adjustment factor for typical sold to list price ratio.
Still, the statistical distribution should be about the same # high as too low. But random studies do indicate they still have a bias at the very high-end properties, estimating them on the low side, simply due to not enough data in that range. Though the modeling is not linear, there still is a skew at the high end that the present modeling has not resolved yet.
Most other AVM's don't attempt to model for non-disclosure areas nor the very high end properties.
It is believed they are modeling to the list prices, and using an adjustment factor for typical sold to list price ratio.
Still, the statistical distribution should be about the same # high as too low. But random studies do indicate they still have a bias at the very high-end properties, estimating them on the low side, simply due to not enough data in that range. Though the modeling is not linear, there still is a skew at the high end that the present modeling has not resolved yet.
Most other AVM's don't attempt to model for non-disclosure areas nor the very high end properties.
"Most other AVM's don't attempt to model for non-disclosure areas nor the very high end properties."
Sounds like they are just smarter than Zillow, unless of course the Zillow strategy is just to be controversial in order to attract additional users.
Sounds like they are just smarter than Zillow, unless of course the Zillow strategy is just to be controversial in order to attract additional users.
- Frieda Triebel, "Frieda Triebel"
- Contributions:234
Zestimates are not apprasals. The folks at Zillow have not visited the properties; rather, they are calculating a 'zestimate" based on data obtained from public records.
- droopyd
- Contributions:403
Providing a very broad "tolerance range" of (using a real example) $445k-$875k doesn't mean a whole lot.
If you know something about the distribution, it means quite a bit. And Zillow publishes enough data on the distributions to know it is not a normal distribution, but has a kurtosis greater than 1.
As for people being smarter not attempting things?
There are only 5 reasons people don't attempt something:
1) No interest
2) Don't know how
3) Don't have the resources or time
4) liability issues
5) are too afraid.
I don't do those specific calculations because I don't have the resources.
It appears that many AVM's don't do them because they don't have a method.
You don't get better at something by refusing to try. Nor by not analyzing your results and making changes. Nor by caving into demands of people that say you are "wrong" when they have no new data and no improved methods to suggest.
Yes, people stated Amelia Airheart was stupid for flying over the ocean alone. I disagree. Great people are not bound by fear, and take risks to explore the frontiers and human potential.
As for people being smarter not attempting things?
There are only 5 reasons people don't attempt something:
1) No interest
2) Don't know how
3) Don't have the resources or time
4) liability issues
5) are too afraid.
I don't do those specific calculations because I don't have the resources.
It appears that many AVM's don't do them because they don't have a method.
You don't get better at something by refusing to try. Nor by not analyzing your results and making changes. Nor by caving into demands of people that say you are "wrong" when they have no new data and no improved methods to suggest.
Yes, people stated Amelia Airheart was stupid for flying over the ocean alone. I disagree. Great people are not bound by fear, and take risks to explore the frontiers and human potential.
Quality of Zillow estimates -- has it dropped all over?
Apparently someone got into the zillow computer database and totally mucked it up. The database is no longer useful
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