Replies (13)
- Clay Branch, "Georgia Loans"
- Contributions:8831
Probably more pain, looks like traders believe we are going to have 4% GDP by the end of 2011. I wonder if the GDP data will be broken out in the future the same way NFP figures are showing Private jobs and total jobs after the census jobs skewed the results. GDP could be reported total, then broken out minus artificially FED enhanced GDP ( formula would be GDP minus 1 ).
- Rudi Hofmann, "LUXURY HOME LOANS CA"
- Contributions:7435
5.000% is the benchmark today. My optimistic viewpoint would be 5.500% as the benchmark by the end of January. Maybe even 6.000%.
In the past month the home buyer has lost about 10% to 15% of their buying power due to the increase in financing.
Happy funding, Rudi
In the past month the home buyer has lost about 10% to 15% of their buying power due to the increase in financing.
Happy funding, Rudi
- Dunes....
- Contributions:3876
1. Refi/Loan Mods will continue to Die out because of the rise in Rates
2. Sales will fall more causing Prices to fall more
3. As a result of the above more people will see themselves as or more underwater with no options and walk
4. The Agents will scream, the Mortgage Brokers will Scream and the Public will scream
5. Rates will drop
The Rates have risen based on smoke and when that smoke dissipates they will fall IMO
Just a couple/few months and we'll be able to return here to see
2. Sales will fall more causing Prices to fall more
3. As a result of the above more people will see themselves as or more underwater with no options and walk
4. The Agents will scream, the Mortgage Brokers will Scream and the Public will scream
5. Rates will drop
The Rates have risen based on smoke and when that smoke dissipates they will fall IMO
Just a couple/few months and we'll be able to return here to see
- Greg Cowart, "Roseville Loan Guy"
- Contributions:649
My prediction for the new 90 days:
The sell-off in treasuries and MBS is about over (although we may not have found bottom yet), the Dow is WAY oversold and is due for a huge correction, stocks will fall, bonds will rise, rates will go back to the mid 4's, maybe the low(er) 4's for a few days in that time.
Even if there is not the huge sell of in stocks that I predict the bond markets are due for correction anyways. Not to mention the yield spread between short/long term rates is out of whack to the point that something has to change to bring it back in line...
Greg
The sell-off in treasuries and MBS is about over (although we may not have found bottom yet), the Dow is WAY oversold and is due for a huge correction, stocks will fall, bonds will rise, rates will go back to the mid 4's, maybe the low(er) 4's for a few days in that time.
Even if there is not the huge sell of in stocks that I predict the bond markets are due for correction anyways. Not to mention the yield spread between short/long term rates is out of whack to the point that something has to change to bring it back in line...
Greg
- sunnyview
- Contributions:26920
I think that the government will do what they can to keep rates low, but I'm not sure that rates will head significantly under 5% anytime in the next 6 months. My guess is that they will travel between 5-5.5%, but we will see. The market feels very erratic to me and seems to be ignoring typical indicators at the moment.
- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4827
What is next is a complete loss of faith in both the government repaying its deb and faith in the dollar retaining its value.
That will translate into even higher interest rates.
That will translate into even higher interest rates.
- Greg Cowart, "Roseville Loan Guy"
- Contributions:649
There may be some lost faith in the US govt repaying their debts but there is more faith in that than any other entity repaying theirs. US debt will always be the safe haven for investor's dollars and the day that it no longer is the case will be the day that no one's currency matters and interest rates, inflation, what the dollar is worth compared to other currencies, etc will not matter to anyone.
- Michael R Hillman
- Contributions:18
Eugene,
We'll be back down to 2.80% on the 10 year before Christmas.
Merry Christmas!
MH
We'll be back down to 2.80% on the 10 year before Christmas.
Merry Christmas!
MH
- Rudi Hofmann, "LUXURY HOME LOANS CA"
- Contributions:7435
One Fee Home Loans (MH),
This is the last business day before Christmas. How's your prediction holding up?
Happy funding, Rudi
This is the last business day before Christmas. How's your prediction holding up?
Happy funding, Rudi
- Greg Cowart, "Roseville Loan Guy"
- Contributions:649
>This is the last business day before Christmas. How's your prediction holding up?
So far I feel like Nostradamus! The bond selloff ended the exact day I posted my prediction (that the bond sell off was about over) and MBS pricing has traded better, or sideways, ever since. Since my prediction rates have gotten better, or at least stayed the same, every day.
If the FNMA 4% MBS holds 98.50 today we're in good shape for a bigger correction/rally!
Greg
So far I feel like Nostradamus! The bond selloff ended the exact day I posted my prediction (that the bond sell off was about over) and MBS pricing has traded better, or sideways, ever since. Since my prediction rates have gotten better, or at least stayed the same, every day.
If the FNMA 4% MBS holds 98.50 today we're in good shape for a bigger correction/rally!
Greg
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:26328
Well, I didn't predict on this thread, but I did on a few others that were asking about rates in January and rates in Spring 2011, and I stated 4.75% ±1%, for both, based on ZMM 30 yr fixed median quote rate for 680+ FICO, 20% down, undetermined fees.
As that median has been holding steady for over 5 days now at 4.7%, I still think my prediction for the new year is in the right ballpark.
The ±1% is for the range of quotes based on fees and other specific loan conditions/loan programs/lender, and for expected continued volatility due to continued international economic news and continued government meddling.
(It would help if Zillow would provide separate quote median trends for different fee percentages, but so far they don't seem to want to spend the resources on that).
As that median has been holding steady for over 5 days now at 4.7%, I still think my prediction for the new year is in the right ballpark.
The ±1% is for the range of quotes based on fees and other specific loan conditions/loan programs/lender, and for expected continued volatility due to continued international economic news and continued government meddling.
(It would help if Zillow would provide separate quote median trends for different fee percentages, but so far they don't seem to want to spend the resources on that).
- sunnyview
- Contributions:26920
Great prediction Greg. You might just have to change your tag to "Nostradamus Mortgage Pro". :)
Pasa you nailed it too. I read your prediction on the other thread and was not sure, but it looks like you were right.
My rate predicting tea leaves were definitely off so back to Amazon they go--Soggy or not. Makes me happy that I didn't need to decide on a lock.
Pasa you nailed it too. I read your prediction on the other thread and was not sure, but it looks like you were right.
My rate predicting tea leaves were definitely off so back to Amazon they go--Soggy or not. Makes me happy that I didn't need to decide on a lock.
- Greg Cowart, "Roseville Loan Guy"
- Contributions:649
The FNMA 4.0 closed at 98.56 (bond market closed early today)! Hopefully holding that line (98.50) will keep the rally going into next week/year...
Rates are up over the last couple weeks...whats next?
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