Rates on the move again!

The mortgage rate Gods are giving those fence sitters that missed last week another opportunity. I wonder if they will wait again.

Bring on Pasa and the charts.
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August 18 2011 - US
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Profile picture for Pasadenan
It appears that all the investors have decided that the BLS numbers today are meaningless now, as the 10 year treasury is now back to where it was yesterday.  No change because there was no real change.
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September 05
Pasa, that's the story of my 2014. So close but so far.

Good job Clay!  As a consolation prize you can borrow the van for the weekend.
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September 05
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By the way, what were Paul's numbers one month ago?  I think he may have just predicted them a month ahead of time...
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September 05
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"But the markets will rally because it means a delay to the end of QE?" -

Rally, maybe, but delay end of QE3?  Highly doubtful as it will end before the next FED meeting, and we don't need it anymore.  The FED has so much of the U.S. Treasury and MBS debt paper that they can keep playing with what they have to still manipulate the economy and monetary supply.  Sure, they are not going to be increasing the amount of cash injected into the economy out of thin air, but they are expecting the minimum wage increases to do that instead, expecting wage increases across the board, thus a devaluation of the dollar, which has been their goal all along.

FED MBS buying with imaginary money ends at the end of this month; only $5B to be bought this month.

FED Treasury buying with imaginary money ends at the end of next month; only $10B to be bought this month.

BLS needed to report low jobs numbers this month to avoid reporting low jobs numbers too close to the election.  This gives them room to play with the numbers for election purposes as the election nears.
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September 05
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I would rather believe ADP than BLS anyway.... but Clay is the winner, as the only one that stated below consensus range...

No one could predict such a set of numbers because... the fluctuation is as wide as Zillow Zestimates.

Actual BLS compared to my estimate?

BLS    Mine    Item
134k    198k    private
8k        5k        government
142k    203k    total net new
6.1%    6.2%    U3 Unemployment
0.2%    0.1%    m/m hourly wage increase
34.5    34.5       avg work week hrs

Now, with so few new jobs, how did U3 stay so low?

8 basis point drop response in 10 year treasury yield, but it has already recovered 4 basis points as everyone knows BLS's numbers are distorted worse that Zestimates.  Probably software glitches from people that went to the same schools.


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September 05
Just cut my guess of 284K and cut it in half...it's been that kind of week.

But the markets will rally because it means a delay to the end of QE?

I think I just saw a couple floor boards buckle too.
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September 05
The roof roof, the roof is on fire... burn the mofo down... maybe not. Sorkin is going to cry. Liesman's nerd glasses fogged up. Rick Santelli has a pickle in his pocket. "The spiral goes on" Zandi doesn't believe the data. HAHAHHAHAHAHHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAahahahhhahhah!
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September 05
So much for the Bond Rally being over. The 10 Year dropped from 2.47 to 2.38 in about 45 seconds. Hovering around 2.40 is much better ( for us ) than getting 300K jobs and going up to 2.60.

The equity bulls are stunned! NFP did the same thing in 2013, July was 201K, then August was 149K. 
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September 05
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September 04
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September 04
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And while we are trimming the Government "fat" as promised by politicians that do nothing about it, we can get rid of the Federal Department of Education as well.  It has done nothing but create extra red-tape, extra expenses, and manipulation of statistics to hide problems.  It is redundant to State government offices and local school boards anyway, and provides no real benefits to the local programs.

Didn't George Bush promise to get rid of 3 Federal departments, but then couldn't remember which ones he wanted to get rid of?

How about HUD, FDA, and ED?  And since the Pentagon spends more money than anyone else at the Federal level, how about we get rid of the Pentagon too?  Their nuclear bomb collection doesn't protect the people, it only produces additional risk.  Same with their huge stock pile of chemical weapons they have no clue what to do with.
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September 04
If HUD goes away what will become of our Good Neighbor Next Door marketing campaign?

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September 04
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"Let the NRA take over the whole shebang?" -

No, get rid of the preferential policy and enforcement system at the Federal level so that NAR won't have as much policy lobbying influence, get rid of the HUD-1 reporting forms that seem to go nowhere and are not effective at enforcement, and let the States handle their own enforcement since licensing is a State issue, not a Federal one.

Would that make the U.S. Fair Housing Act unenforceable?  It never has been enforceable and never has been enforced.  It is almost impossible to document a discrimination case, and most of the complaints filed seem to go nowhere.

The bigger issue is the destruction of communities to build HUD "projects" with HUD money, to put wealth in the pockets of developers while forcing long term residents out of the city, and providing property tax kickbacks to local community governments in the form of "Community Development Block Grants" and redirection of incremental property tax changes after the designation of a "community redevelopment area" away from State and County uses and back to the local area, supposedly to use for investing in that Community Development Area, but invariably used for "pet projects" instead.  And worse, once declared a HUD project area, it carries that stigma forever and thus increases crime and decreases any possibility of economic improvement.  And the building quality standards?  Much worse than what they took by eminent domain and tore down.  So buy accepting the Federal government matching money, one is essentially designating an area to be an official slum and ghetto.

Sure, they say it is all about making housing "affordable", but subsidizing housing drives housing prices up, not down.  Get rid of the subsidies and all the pricing will drop across the board.

Can't afford to live anywhere?  Then those businesses that survive off of labor at minimal wages will need to find other ways to get their work done, or will need to find other ways to provide housing for their workers instead of requiring the tax payer by way of HUD to subsidize their business by paying for their worker's housing.

If it is a disability issue, it shouldn't be going through a Federal Government housing office directly to Landlords and Developers in the first place!

We don't need HUD, it is unnecessary "red tape" and a waste of tax payer money.
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September 04
Let the NRA take over the whole shebang?

Such a high number seems to go hand and hand with the last reported pumped up GDP.
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September 04
I agree with Paul's number but for Sept. I am going with 188K for Aug. CNBC had a ton of analysts, today, declaring the Bond rally is over. Really?         
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September 04
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"Put the FED to bed" -

And replace them with "what"?  Congress doesn't know how to run any monetary policy, nor could the U.S. Treasury manage the money printing and minting by themselves.  Nor could we trust the President to oversee the Treasury Monetary policies directly.

It is hard to get rid of a system if one doesn't have a clear proposal for the alternative.  I haven't looked to see what Ron Paul was proposing.

I would like to see us get rid of HUD though.  And FDA too.  And we should get rid of Voice of America as well as it just makes it too obvious that the entire U.S. government is about propagating propaganda.  Yes, we all know that the government does more propaganda than any other government that has ever existed.... but we don't need to tell the whole world that.
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September 04
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Wow!  Last month you stated "below consensus range", and this month you are stating "above consensus range"?  Expecting BLS to play games with the numbers again?

Perhaps because the election is approaching so quickly?
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September 04

 I am going to say for NFP 284K net new.

The van is still around. 

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September 04
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Net new jobs predictions for tomorrow?

ADP consensus was 223k private, but came in at 204k private.  July was 198k private, 11k government, 209k total net new.  Consensus is 220k private, 10k government, 230k total net new, range 195k to 279k.

Was government still hiring in August?  More summer youth worker intern jobs?

I'll go with 198k private, 5k government, 203k net new., which is still within the consensus range, but below consensus.

Average Work week is expected to have not changed; still 34.5 hrs/week average.
Unemployment (U3) was 6.2% for July; consensus is 6.1% range 6.0% to 6.2%.  I'm going with 6.2% as I didn't see much hiring and unemployment claims for last week was at 302k when consensus was 300k and prior week was 298k.

Consensus on average hourly earnings is 0.2% increase month over month. 0.1% to 0.3% range.   I expected some increase in July due to the change in minimum wage.  It didn't show up; it came out 0% increase in July.    Maybe a delayed reaction to the change in minimum wage?  I don't see 0.2%.  Either 0% or 0.1%.  I'll go with 0.1%  maybe July was just a round-off issue and the affects of raising the minimum wage will show up in the round off the other way for August.

Is Paul still offering the Van for those that it it on the nose?

Other predictions before tomorrow morning?
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September 04
"Home on the 'Tight' Range" continues to play

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September 04
It was looking pretty good for the Bond market after ADP data, then investors started mulling over Draghi's asset purchase plan. 10 Year now around 2.43.
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September 04
Interesting consensus numbers for today, flat on ADP and down on ISM Services. 8:15 for the first shoe.
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September 04
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September 04
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September 03
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September 03
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September 02
Pasadenan - if there was a road/highway going through (not over and winding over like the 2) the mountain directly south of here my property value would go way up! An "east/west" freeway farther south than the 58 would help also. The 58 was fine for a short cut to Vegas when I lived by Edwards AFB but now it's just too far north... Right now everyone's stuck with the 138 and I'm sure you know what a nightmare that can be (cement truck on a two lane highway with no passing comes to mind). It does snow here... Not as much as Wrightwood but it's still snow! ;)
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August 31


Rates will continue their agonizingly slow trickle down this week (less a major world event etc.This would add gravity) 

 
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August 31
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August 31
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Well MND has put back Friday's chart now.  No clue when as I didn't check since last time I posted.  Too busy studying under the sink photos...
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August 31
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