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Rates on the move again!

The mortgage rate Gods are giving those fence sitters that missed last week another opportunity. I wonder if they will wait again.

Bring on Pasa and the charts.
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August 18 2011 - US
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Answers (4128)

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6 days ago

Upcoming Changes to the Establishment Survey Data    |

Effective with the release of July 2014 data on August 1, 2014, the establishment survey will implement new sample units into production on a quarterly basis, replacing the current practice of implementing new sample units annually. There is no change to the establishment survey sample design. More information about the quarterly sample implementation is available at http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesqsi.htm.

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6 days ago
Profile picture for Pasadenan
4.025% average ZMM 30 yr fixed quote for Wednesday:








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6 days ago
No weigh! It's already starting.

 "Dow Average Tops 17,000 as Payrolls Rise" 


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-03/u-s-stock-index-futures-little-changed-before-jobs-data.html

 
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6 days ago

Nice job Pasa! You were close to winning the van. We will roll it over until next month.

 

Treasuries feeling the pain. MBS are following suit. 

Get used to hearing about the Dow being over 17,000 all weekend 

 

Does this represent the people whose benefits have expired 'or' a mixed bag??

 

 "The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 

293,000 in June to 3.1 million; these individuals accounted for 32.8 percent of the

unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has decreased

by 1.2 million. (See table A-12.)"

 

 

 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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6 days ago
Profile picture for Pasadenan
Well, it was "within the consensus range", and "higher than consensus", but it was a  higher than I expected, and "government" was MUCH higher than I expected.

It came in at 262k private.  (I said 260k private, ADP stated 281k private).
It came in at 26k government.  Consensus was 1k government; I stated 2k government.
288k total net new jobs.

What are all these government jobs that were created in June?  Summer youth work programs at less than minimum wage?  Part time internships for teenagers?  Military drone operators for Iraq?

And did you notice they revised the May numbers up by 7k?  Well, only "sort of"; that 1k net new government jobs "vanished".   That means that BLS was off by 100% on their report of net new Government jobs last month.  Of course, we can't believe the revised numbers either, so we have no clue how far they really were off.  So what will happen to the 26k net new government jobs reported for June?  Are they "imaginary" also?  Will they also disappear at the beginning of August, with the government claiming they never existed in the first place?

I thing Eric Arthur Blair (AKA George Orwell) knew something about the BLS that most Americans don't, as he wrote about the "mini-Tru" (ministry of history and statistics revision) in 1948.

6-1/2 basis points rise in the 10 year treasury yield in response; settling back 1 basis point.


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6 days ago
Pasa wins! I left an "8" off.

Did investors already trade on the increase from the ADP number or will the 10 Yr take another hit? Here it comes.
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July 03
I am going with 208K NFP, 322K initial claims, 55.5 ISM.
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July 03
Profile picture for Pasadenan
Wow!  I just realized I misspelled a simple word!  Maybe that is why Clay didn't post?  Will Clay WEIGH in ... not "way in".

It's just a few more hours now; that's all the time we've got...
Employment situation  to be published 8:30 AM Eastern Time; that makes it 5:30 AM Pacific time; and it is already 10:10 PM Pacific Time, so only 7 hrs, 20 minutes to go.
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July 02
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I like the creative license plate number!
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July 02
Oh ya the van!  And it will be packed full of mortgage back securities. Anyone who hits the number on the nose gets it.

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July 02
Profile picture for Pasadenan
So, Paul states below consensus range, thus mortgage interest rates will go down.
And I state above consensus, but within consensus range, so mortgage interest rates will go up.

And Clay?  Will he way in before tomorrow?  What about Hamp and Ted and Go Huskers?

Didn't Paul state last month that we was giving away a van this month?
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July 02
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That chart Paul just referenced, referenced in...


(Not uploaded to Zillow)
It will be interesting to see if it auto-updates after tomorrow...
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July 02


 

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Historical Data


 http://ycharts.com/indicators/us_change_in_nonfarm_payrolls

 
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July 02
Any other bets before BLS releases the numbers before tomorrow morning?  

NFP - 192K 
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July 02
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Overlay for the day, including yesterday:


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July 02
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And the 15 year fixed rate candle chart for June, for comparison:


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July 02
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3.986% average ZMM 30 year fixed rate quote for Tuesday:








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July 02
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Mortgage rate data is back on line again, and it appears they posted the missing data.

I'll see if I can update the charts....
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July 02
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Consensus on BLS non-farm payroll is 211k net new jobs, range 199k to 290k; 1k net government jobs gained.

Based on the very high ADP number, I'm guessing that BLS will inflate the numbers and state more net new jobs created... perhaps 260k private, 2k government.  (Still within consensus range).

But perhaps...  it is possible the government wants the FED to continue the purchase of treasuries..., thus they may under-report the net new jobs to make the FED think they need to keep increasing the monetary supply with slowed QE3 tapering.

Any other bets before BLS releases the numbers before tomorrow morning?  (Yes, it is THURSDAY this week instead of Friday, due to Friday's Holy-Day.  (Freedom from U.S. Government Oppression and declaration of Independence from U.S. taxation without representation).
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July 02
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ADP reports higher than expect net new private jobs, at 281k.  Consensus was 213k, range 190k to 240k.  Prior month was 179k, and not revised.

This may mean BLS reports higher numbers tomorrow as well, which will make people think the economy is "all better" and thus stocks will rise, and mortgage interest rates will rise too.

A 4 basis point rise in the 10 year treasury yield in response.

Gallup also published their job creation index, and payroll to population numbers.

In other economic news:
Factory Orders  down, below consensus at bottom of consensus range

and
Petroleum Status inventories down.  But production up, and gas sales up, interpreted as more active economy, thus rise in Stock prices, drop in Treasury prices, drop in MBS prices, rise in Treasury yields, rise in Mortgage interest rates.

Janet (FED Chair) was also speaking today,
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July 02
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Zillow broke their average rate information and interactive chart again.  The quote volume for the day clearly indicates they "stopped counting" at 9 am Pacific Time yesterday morning.

I'm posting the charts anyway, but it is hard to see the actual trend for yesterday with the ZMM just "stopping"; and it appears that the average for the day is actually higher than indicated (based on the 10 yr treasury yield trend)...







(I'm not posting an updated candle chart, as I don't have the Max, Min, or Close data for yesterday due to the quoting statistics just "stopping").

I found out today that the 7 day chart now has hourly data.  (It used to only have 4-hour data).  Perhaps they will update that, and I can get yesterday's data later.... but I'm thinking they won't go back and fix the "missing data", and that it still will be missing.
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July 02
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Overlay for Tuesday:


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July 02
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Yesterday was about as flat as it can get.

Today's news:
PMI Manufacturing Index  up

ISM Mfg Index down

Construction Spending down

10 year treasury yield increased overnight from international trading; but this morning's news was essentially a "wash"; little movement.
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July 01
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3.965% average ZMM 30 yr fixed quote for Monday:








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July 01
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Overlay for the day:


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June 30
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While we are on the subject of messing up the translations; the book of Jonah states Jonah was swallowed by a "large fish".  But the Greek Septuagint translates it as "whale".  Though Jesus likely did speak Greek for trading purposes when doing carpentry, he didn't speak Greek most of the time, but rather Aramaic.  So he wouldn't have ever said "whale", but rather "great fish"... 

It turns out that the throat of a whale is too small for a man to pass through.  But it was never a whale in the first place.  Some English translations fix this Greek translation error.  Others just translate the Greek, to be true to the original manuscripts of those writers, that copied from a source that had a minor translation error.

Everyone knows a "whale" is NOT a "fish", it is a "mammal".  Apparently those 70 translating into the Greek had some difficulty getting an accurate translation for that word.
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June 30
MBS are rallying,  rate sheets continue to improve


 
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June 30
Profile picture for Pasadenan
And on the economic news of the day...
Chicago PMI  down

Pending Home Sales Index up

Dallas Fed Mfg Survey  up

10 year treasury yield after movement both ways is essentially a wash.
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June 30
And here I was under the impression all this time that this was the Eye of the Needle

 

 ... a gate in Jerusalem called the eye of the needle through which a camel could not pass unless it stooped and first had all its baggage first removed.

Mangled Greek?

 No wonder the camel couldn't get through the eye/aka gate...it never was there in the first place. 
(Wait until I see that Sister Margaret Mary from 3rd grade) 
 
 
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June 30
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