Rates on the move again!

The mortgage rate Gods are giving those fence sitters that missed last week another opportunity. I wonder if they will wait again.

Bring on Pasa and the charts.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
August 18 2011 - US
We think we've answered this question for you!
  • Be a Good Neighbor. Be respectful and on-topic. No spam or self-promotion! See our Good Neighbor Policy.
 
 

Answers (4425)

Profile picture for blue screen died
I guess I"m just slow.  I just realized I could do a script for the color corrections and cropping for the 5-minute treasury yield chart.  I guess I can do that for the MBS chart too, but I'm presently not sure of the means to do the text flipping after the main flipping as the Y-scale axis is not consistent in position nor number of text items.

Anyway; anything to reduce time to generate the charts and produce better quality.  It is "good practice".  And the skills for using the photo program can be used for other things as well.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 11
Profile picture for blue screen died
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 11
Profile picture for blue screen died









  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 11
Profile picture for blue screen died
20/32 price decrease for FNMA 3.5 overnight

  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 10
Profile picture for blue screen died









  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 09
Profile picture for blue screen died
Poor correlation today; but then, little movement:

  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 09
Profile picture for blue screen died








  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 08
Profile picture for blue screen died
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 08
Profile picture for blue screen died
Well, checking Paul's guess for July at the end of July:
"I am forecasting 187K NFP and 6.3% unemployment rate"

On 9/4, Clay states "188K for Aug"

So Paul's guess for the prior month is only slightly better than Clay's guess for August, with the net new Jobs coming in at 142k.

187k is still 31.7% "high" compared to BLS' "actual".

Of course, there is always the possibility that Clay has the "real" number of net new jobs, in which case the BLS' estimate is just "low" by 24.5%

Since Zillow recently stated a change in Zestimate of 25% or more was a "glitch", and less was not, If Clay has the "real" number, than BLS' number must be within their tolerance range?

But if those "consensus" people were "right" instead, at 230k?  Then BLS is low by 38.3%.

So, how can people complain about the tolerance margin on Zillow estimates when the "statistics" that their tax dollars are paying the BLS to do has a much wider tolerance margin?  And as near as I can tell, the BLS is not producing anywhere near 21 Billion estimates per year.

I think we should fire all 2400 BLS employees.  Their department isn't useful as their surveys and analysis doesn't seem to be any better than numbers produced by the private sector and academia.

So that makes 5 Federal Government departments we can cut.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 06
Profile picture for blue screen died








  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 06
Profile picture for blue screen died
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 05
Profile picture for blue screen died
It appears that all the investors have decided that the BLS numbers today are meaningless now, as the 10 year treasury is now back to where it was yesterday.  No change because there was no real change.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 05
Pasa, that's the story of my 2014. So close but so far.

Good job Clay!  As a consolation prize you can borrow the van for the weekend.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 05
Profile picture for blue screen died
By the way, what were Paul's numbers one month ago?  I think he may have just predicted them a month ahead of time...
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 05
Profile picture for blue screen died
"But the markets will rally because it means a delay to the end of QE?" -

Rally, maybe, but delay end of QE3?  Highly doubtful as it will end before the next FED meeting, and we don't need it anymore.  The FED has so much of the U.S. Treasury and MBS debt paper that they can keep playing with what they have to still manipulate the economy and monetary supply.  Sure, they are not going to be increasing the amount of cash injected into the economy out of thin air, but they are expecting the minimum wage increases to do that instead, expecting wage increases across the board, thus a devaluation of the dollar, which has been their goal all along.

FED MBS buying with imaginary money ends at the end of this month; only $5B to be bought this month.

FED Treasury buying with imaginary money ends at the end of next month; only $10B to be bought this month.

BLS needed to report low jobs numbers this month to avoid reporting low jobs numbers too close to the election.  This gives them room to play with the numbers for election purposes as the election nears.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 05
Profile picture for blue screen died
I would rather believe ADP than BLS anyway.... but Clay is the winner, as the only one that stated below consensus range...

No one could predict such a set of numbers because... the fluctuation is as wide as Zillow Zestimates.

Actual BLS compared to my estimate?

BLS    Mine    Item
134k    198k    private
8k        5k        government
142k    203k    total net new
6.1%    6.2%    U3 Unemployment
0.2%    0.1%    m/m hourly wage increase
34.5    34.5       avg work week hrs

Now, with so few new jobs, how did U3 stay so low?

8 basis point drop response in 10 year treasury yield, but it has already recovered 4 basis points as everyone knows BLS's numbers are distorted worse that Zestimates.  Probably software glitches from people that went to the same schools.


  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 05
Just cut my guess of 284K and cut it in half...it's been that kind of week.

But the markets will rally because it means a delay to the end of QE?

I think I just saw a couple floor boards buckle too.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 05
The roof roof, the roof is on fire... burn the mofo down... maybe not. Sorkin is going to cry. Liesman's nerd glasses fogged up. Rick Santelli has a pickle in his pocket. "The spiral goes on" Zandi doesn't believe the data. HAHAHHAHAHAHHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAahahahhhahhah!
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 05
So much for the Bond Rally being over. The 10 Year dropped from 2.47 to 2.38 in about 45 seconds. Hovering around 2.40 is much better ( for us ) than getting 300K jobs and going up to 2.60.

The equity bulls are stunned! NFP did the same thing in 2013, July was 201K, then August was 149K. 
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 05
Profile picture for blue screen died








  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 04
Profile picture for blue screen died
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 04
Profile picture for blue screen died
And while we are trimming the Government "fat" as promised by politicians that do nothing about it, we can get rid of the Federal Department of Education as well.  It has done nothing but create extra red-tape, extra expenses, and manipulation of statistics to hide problems.  It is redundant to State government offices and local school boards anyway, and provides no real benefits to the local programs.

Didn't George Bush promise to get rid of 3 Federal departments, but then couldn't remember which ones he wanted to get rid of?

How about HUD, FDA, and ED?  And since the Pentagon spends more money than anyone else at the Federal level, how about we get rid of the Pentagon too?  Their nuclear bomb collection doesn't protect the people, it only produces additional risk.  Same with their huge stock pile of chemical weapons they have no clue what to do with.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 04
If HUD goes away what will become of our Good Neighbor Next Door marketing campaign?

  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 04
Profile picture for blue screen died
"Let the NRA take over the whole shebang?" -

No, get rid of the preferential policy and enforcement system at the Federal level so that NAR won't have as much policy lobbying influence, get rid of the HUD-1 reporting forms that seem to go nowhere and are not effective at enforcement, and let the States handle their own enforcement since licensing is a State issue, not a Federal one.

Would that make the U.S. Fair Housing Act unenforceable?  It never has been enforceable and never has been enforced.  It is almost impossible to document a discrimination case, and most of the complaints filed seem to go nowhere.

The bigger issue is the destruction of communities to build HUD "projects" with HUD money, to put wealth in the pockets of developers while forcing long term residents out of the city, and providing property tax kickbacks to local community governments in the form of "Community Development Block Grants" and redirection of incremental property tax changes after the designation of a "community redevelopment area" away from State and County uses and back to the local area, supposedly to use for investing in that Community Development Area, but invariably used for "pet projects" instead.  And worse, once declared a HUD project area, it carries that stigma forever and thus increases crime and decreases any possibility of economic improvement.  And the building quality standards?  Much worse than what they took by eminent domain and tore down.  So buy accepting the Federal government matching money, one is essentially designating an area to be an official slum and ghetto.

Sure, they say it is all about making housing "affordable", but subsidizing housing drives housing prices up, not down.  Get rid of the subsidies and all the pricing will drop across the board.

Can't afford to live anywhere?  Then those businesses that survive off of labor at minimal wages will need to find other ways to get their work done, or will need to find other ways to provide housing for their workers instead of requiring the tax payer by way of HUD to subsidize their business by paying for their worker's housing.

If it is a disability issue, it shouldn't be going through a Federal Government housing office directly to Landlords and Developers in the first place!

We don't need HUD, it is unnecessary "red tape" and a waste of tax payer money.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 04
Let the NRA take over the whole shebang?

Such a high number seems to go hand and hand with the last reported pumped up GDP.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 04
I agree with Paul's number but for Sept. I am going with 188K for Aug. CNBC had a ton of analysts, today, declaring the Bond rally is over. Really?         
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 04
Profile picture for blue screen died
"Put the FED to bed" -

And replace them with "what"?  Congress doesn't know how to run any monetary policy, nor could the U.S. Treasury manage the money printing and minting by themselves.  Nor could we trust the President to oversee the Treasury Monetary policies directly.

It is hard to get rid of a system if one doesn't have a clear proposal for the alternative.  I haven't looked to see what Ron Paul was proposing.

I would like to see us get rid of HUD though.  And FDA too.  And we should get rid of Voice of America as well as it just makes it too obvious that the entire U.S. government is about propagating propaganda.  Yes, we all know that the government does more propaganda than any other government that has ever existed.... but we don't need to tell the whole world that.
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 04
Profile picture for blue screen died
Wow!  Last month you stated "below consensus range", and this month you are stating "above consensus range"?  Expecting BLS to play games with the numbers again?

Perhaps because the election is approaching so quickly?
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 04

 I am going to say for NFP 284K net new.

The van is still around. 

  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 04
Profile picture for blue screen died
Net new jobs predictions for tomorrow?

ADP consensus was 223k private, but came in at 204k private.  July was 198k private, 11k government, 209k total net new.  Consensus is 220k private, 10k government, 230k total net new, range 195k to 279k.

Was government still hiring in August?  More summer youth worker intern jobs?

I'll go with 198k private, 5k government, 203k net new., which is still within the consensus range, but below consensus.

Average Work week is expected to have not changed; still 34.5 hrs/week average.
Unemployment (U3) was 6.2% for July; consensus is 6.1% range 6.0% to 6.2%.  I'm going with 6.2% as I didn't see much hiring and unemployment claims for last week was at 302k when consensus was 300k and prior week was 298k.

Consensus on average hourly earnings is 0.2% increase month over month. 0.1% to 0.3% range.   I expected some increase in July due to the change in minimum wage.  It didn't show up; it came out 0% increase in July.    Maybe a delayed reaction to the change in minimum wage?  I don't see 0.2%.  Either 0% or 0.1%.  I'll go with 0.1%  maybe July was just a round-off issue and the affects of raising the minimum wage will show up in the round off the other way for August.

Is Paul still offering the Van for those that it it on the nose?

Other predictions before tomorrow morning?
  Flag content
Close
Report a Problem

Please enter a valid email address.

Close
Content flagged

We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

Close
We're Sorry
This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.
September 04
Related Questions
Rates on the move again!
Latest answer by blue screen died
3 minutes ago | 4425 answers
Can I assume my sons mortgage?
Profile picture for Andrew Byrd
Latest answer by Andrew Byrd
1 hour 28 minutes ago | 4 answers
i need a loan for less than 50000 dollars. where is the best place to apply for one?
Profile picture for gator70
Latest answer by gator70
4 days ago | 22 answers
Investment property mortgage rates
Profile picture for Hamp Yonce
Latest answer by Hamp Yonce
4 days ago | 7 answers
Is the 10 year bond yield the best indicator of mortage rates,or is there abetter indicator
Profile picture for blue screen died
Latest answer by blue screen died
4 days ago | 69 answers
Mortgage Rates
 
Be A Good Neighbor

Zillow Advice depends on each member to keep it a safe, fun, and positive place. If you see abuse, flag it. More on our Good Neighbor Policy.

 
 
 
Sign in with Google