Rates on the move again!

The mortgage rate Gods are giving those fence sitters that missed last week another opportunity. I wonder if they will wait again.

Bring on Pasa and the charts.
  • August 18 2011 - US
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Answers (4814)

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4.130% ZMM 30 yr fixed quote average for Friday:








  • April 12
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  • April 11
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Overlay chart for the day (FNMA3.5; 10yr treasury):


  • April 11
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4.115% ZMM average quote for the 10 am Pacific time hour... not at all clear if that is the start of the hour, or the end of the hour.

The under 4-1/8% hours yesterday were:
10am: 4.12%
11am: 4.117%
12pm: 4.117%
1pm:  4.118%

So we sort of are doing a bit better then yesterday; but it really depends on how the other numbers come in.

You will notice that the "tick up" in the chart to the right disappeared now.  The number they indicate for "today" in the chart i(and the table below) s the running average since midnight, updated on the hour; but a couple hours behind due to their programming bug and their "caching" the data.
  • April 11
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Cue the reprices for the worse..?  They should not be so brutal is they come. 
Monday awaits with decent momentum for rate sheets none-the-less 


  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h81Ojd3d2rY

 
  • April 11
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Both 2/3 and 3/3 were Mondays, and no doubt influenced by the lingering effects of weekend robo-quoter speculation. The rate sheets today are for the most part a bit better than they were on those days. 
*Worth mentioning is there have been some pricing improvements for lower credit scores and higher loan to values coming in from a multitude of lenders in the past couple weeks. This has influenced a general tighter spread between mbs and rate sheets
  • April 11
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Mortgage News Daily's 3 month chart to compare with Zillow's:



Both MND and Zillow indicate a "low" on 3/3/14 that is lower than today, but an even lower low on 2/3/14.

That is the day people really should have "locked"; but probably wouldn't have been an option for people in process now.  Zillow's chart indicates 4.083% average 30 yr fixed quote for 2/3/14.
  • April 11
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A very wee bit better on the rate sheet pricing today at opening Laddy... fir the fact that rates held dir ground and did not sell off today (so fir) is a sign of dem trending lower.
  • April 11
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Zillow' hourly numbers are still coming in higher than the 4 "low" hours yesterday... of course with the delay in posting, were are not seeing the most current hours yet.  (Notice the "tick up" on the 3-month chart in the right column on this page, for today).

Zillow's numbers are still not as good as March 3 this year, the day I was asking if people should lock.

What are you seeing on the rate sheets?  How is it comparing with mid-day yesterday?
  • April 11
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Hello Refi-boom 
  • April 11
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4.141% average ZMM 30 yr fixed quote for Thursday.  Hourly quotes averages did fall bellow 4-1/8% for 4 hours yesterday.  30yr average fell 5 basis points from prior day.  15 yr ZMM average quote and 10 yr treasury fell 6 basis points from the prior day.  Mortgage News daily 30 yr fixed quote survey fell 7 basis points from the prior day:








  • April 11
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10 yr treasury yield was down to 2.61% annual when the Producer price index for final demand came in at 8:30 am Eastern Time, and then rose 1 basis point to 2.62% after the announcement.  Producer price index final demand month over month change came in at 0.5 when consensus was 0.1, range -0.1 to 0.3.

As Clay pointed out, it was a change in methodology that came up with different numbers, and thus was primarily ignored by investors as it there was nothing to compare the numbers to.

FNMA 3.5 went up slightly at 8:30 am Eastern time, but then dropped back more than it rose.

Consumer Sentiment is now in; 82.6, when consensus was 81.0, range 79.5 to 82.5.  As it came in slightly above consensus, it should put upward pressure on stocks and treasury yields and thus also mortgage rates.  Numbers released just before 10 am Eastern time; 10 yr treasury yield rose 1 basis point, then fell right back down again.

Remember Consumer Sentiment is not a percentage.  If one wants a percentage scale, they need to multiply by 2/3.  That would put it at about 55.1%, which is right about at historic average.
  • April 11
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From Briefing:

The consensus is having difficulty forecasting the PPI following the methodology change.
Under the previous PPI methodology, price growth for finished goods was down 0.1%. That was very close to the 0.1% expectation. 
  • The entire increase in producer prices was the result of a bounce in prices for final demand for services. After declining 0.3% in February, these prices increased 0.7%, which was the largest monthly gain since January 2010.
  • Final demand for trade services increased 1.4% in March after falling 1.0% in February. This was mostly the result of a 3.3% increase in margins for apparel and jewelry retailing.
  • Prices of final goods demand were flat after increasing 0.4% in February.

More methodology change,,,,, The consensus for CPI next week will be interesting since it too has been around up .01. 

  • April 11
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PPI - That must be one of the reports that was caught in the rain
 

  • April 11
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LOL, cant believe those PPI numbers!!!!!!!
  • April 11
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The long Bond is currently at 3.478, looks like the prediction of 3.5 - 3.75% growth in the 2ND Qtr is fading. If this keeps up the 10 year may drop below 2.60 unless the Mich Sent number comes in at 85 :). The other 2 data points, PPI, should be dead on the consensus numbers.
  • April 11
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Overlay for the day including yesterday:



(And yes, those cyan lines are straight from the Mortgage News Daily site, with a little "manipulation" to get rid of background, change colors, flip vertically, and scale.  Also had to spit and separate at the 8am hour to align the prior day.  FNMA 3.5 coupon price)
  • April 10
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I'm singing in the rain. Laughing at the clouds. Blah blah blah....

I love the "no such thing as good news" days.
  • April 10
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Nasdaq down 2.8%, treasuries to 2.62, FNMA 4.0 up 13/32.  Certainly not a boring day.
  • April 10
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The rain makes the reports all wet, the ink runs and they become illegible... nothing left to do but speculate

 
Rate sheets priced as low as they have been in sometime...  the eminent possibility of a pull back lingers 

 
  • April 10
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Plus it was rainy several days, and we've been told repeatedly that weather really impacted various reports.  ;)
  • April 10
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New Unemployment claims for last week released today indicates fewer new claims filed by about 10%..., but they are blaming that on "Easter"; and the market seems to have moved the opposite direction than a low unemployment claims number would imply.
  • April 10
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Thanks China
  • April 10
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10 yr treasury yield is down to 2.63% now.

MBS pricing saw a similar corresponding rise.
  • April 10
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Rolling, rolling, rolling...
  • April 10
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4.186% average ZMM 30 yr fixed quote for Wednesday:






  • April 10
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Overlay for the day including yesterday:

  • April 09
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Ted, good to see you sticking around. 

 Clay I thought I saw the roll wrap up on MND but it could have been MW.

  "gad fly"??  That's sometimes fitting for you.  I can only imagine what you were being a pain in the rump about. 
 
People tell me I look like the winded guy from the boy scout show ;]
 
 Pasa, is that you? 


 
  • April 09
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Here's what happened in rate markets today, courtesy of MND: 

" Rates began the day higher, but many lenders are set to end in line with yesterday's rates after this afternoon's FOMC Minutes. These are the meeting minutes from the Fed's 2-day policy discussion that results in their official policy announcement. Rates had risen after that March 19th announcement and today's Minutes release provided an opportunity for the Fed to further explain some of the factors that may have concerned markets back in March. Of particular note, the Fed expressed its own concern that markets had misconstrued a shift in Fed forecasts for the first rate hike as a movement in a less accommodative direction. In general, "Fed accommodation" has been beneficial for interest rates.

While most lenders began the day with weaker rate sheets, many of those have been recalled and new, lower rates have been issued (aka "positive mid-day reprices"). For some lenders, this merely gets them back to yesterday's latest levels. Others are slightly worse still, while a few are better. On average, rates remain just slightly higher than yesterday, but very close to unchanged. The most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for best-case scenarios remains 4.375%, with 4.5% nearly as prevalent. Adjusting for changes in closing costs, rates rose 0.01% today."

  • April 09
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I didn't get the assembly line explanation on MND regarding the roll so I found a detailed description here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE-8yO3fnJ4

Thumb for the gadfly.

  • April 09
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