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Rates on the move again!

The mortgage rate Gods are giving those fence sitters that missed last week another opportunity. I wonder if they will wait again.

Bring on Pasa and the charts.
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August 18 2011 - US
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Answers (4189)

Looks like the inventory buildup has reversed now, ISM Manufacturing down. Construction spending barely positive, also revised down for last month. MBS should rally today, again. Another drama filled week of Data, especially the NFP numbers.
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February 03
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Thanks Paul  Have a great super bowl weekend to you & all.
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February 01
Profile picture for Pasadenan
For Friday, the last day of the month, 4.129% average ZMM 30 yr fixed quote.  Market was fairly flat, except a slight dip at the beginning of the day, which went right back up by closing:









By the way, since there was no U.S. economic news that caused the lower numbers Friday for Treasury yields and mortgage interest rates, I expect a slight increase Monday.  Construction spending consensus is 0% change; that may be a bit high causing some downward pressure, but I expect the Manufacturing indexes to compensate.  The day will be pretty flat, but likely open slightly higher than Friday.  The $10B taper for February should be "old news" by Monday.
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February 01
From Tyler Durden to Debt Ceiling, great input today Pasa.  I'm still trying to get through it all, as it has been a busy originating morning.

user69 
If you are closing in 10 - 14 business days lock by Monday/Tuesday of next week.
Otherwise, it is pretty certain that rates will be in drop mode for the near to medium future,
In any case DO definitely have your loan guy keep a hand on the pistol grip. 
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January 31
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The interesting data item coming up is February 8, when the Debt ceiling automatically resets to the prior debt ceiling, plus the additional debt that has accumulated since the debt ceiling was suspended last October.

Then congress needs to act prior to the treasury running out of money and not being able to pay present bills.

Knowing congress, they are not prepared to act on this at this time.  So the markets will not respond that favorably, which should drive interest rates down; HOWEVER the Federal Reserve is fully aware of this, and intends to prop up the interest rates and the market by increasing the overnight rate as needed.

Congress has about 1 to 2 months to act after the debt ceiling is reached on 2/8/14.  The markets will not notice anything in the first week or so; but depending on what Congress does or does not do, and how the media portrays this, it could lower rates substantially in about 1 month.  But seeing what the FED did in October with the overnight rate, it might not be all that substantial, but will still be some movement.
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January 31
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You guys all rock!  I've been reading posts for about a month now and have learned so much while trying to get my FHA loan.  Do you guys see interest rates keep sliding?  I am currently still floating...
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January 31
Profile picture for Pasadenan
Sorry, data error on the last post; 4 basis point drop in the 10 yr treasury yield; 8/32 increase in MBS pricing.

4 basis point drop in average 30 yr mortgage rate quotes from yesterday's close of 4.163% would be 4.12%

The ZMM hourly averages opened about that point, at 4.11% average at 8 am Pacific Time.  The chart to the right is substantially behind the "interactive chart" linked at the top of the page.  Even the interactive chart is still behind by 2 hours.
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January 31
Profile picture for Pasadenan
8 basis point drop in the 10 yr Treasury yield over night.  MBS quickly followed suit upon market opening raising MBS pricing.  Mortgage Interest rates are paying attention to this overnight economic shift.

It would be very surprising if we see an 8 basis point drop in mortgage rates by the end of the day though.

Did the Zerohedge articles have anything at all to do with the increased foreign investments in U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Mortgage backed securities?
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January 31
Profile picture for Pasadenan
 On today's economic news, both the 10 yr treasury yield, and the FNM 3.5 pricing have remained steady since the markets opened this morning; prior to any U.S. news.  Thus the changes were all foreign overseas investments that occurred during the night.

Overnight rate for tonight and the weekend has been set to 0.04%, maintaining the status quo of last night.

So the news items that didn't move the market:
Personal Income and Outlays
 (income down, spending up)
Employment Cost Index
 (employment costs crept up slightly)
Chicago PMI
 (came in right at consensus)
Consumer Sentiment
 (consumers are optimistic, but came in at consensus)

So the investors are considering it a wash.
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January 31
Profile picture for Pasadenan
More interesting propaganda this week from the same publication?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-29/ira-confiscation-its-happening

Two interesting things about this "interpretation":
1) that the MyRA is supposed to "replace" existing retirement plans... it is not; it is intended to be an additional retirement plan for those that presently only have social security.
2) The government "net worth" is not "negative 16 trillion", that is only the deficit line, it ignores the "assets" line.  As I've pointed out multiple times before, if the U.S. dismantles and auctions off the Nukes, it would completely pay off the debt, with enough remaining to run the Federal Government for an additional 5 years.  And that doesn't even begin to consider all the other assets owned by the Federal Government.

As for whether the MyRA mandates only U.S. Treasury investments; I have no clue; it was only introduced to the public at the State of the Union speech.
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January 31
Profile picture for Pasadenan
(As they always say... "consider the source"....)

From:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

Profile

Zero Hedge was founded in January 2009. Posts are signed "Tyler Durden," a character in the Chuck Palahniuk book and movie Fight Club, reflecting the news site's activist posture. Despite speculation that "Tyler Durden" is a pseudonym of Daniel Ivandjiiski, who was penalized for insider trading in New York in September 2008, Ivandjiiski denies being a founder of Zero Hedge. Rather, he says he is one of several writers contributing to the site under the pseudonym. In an interview, "Durden" said there were four editors at Zero Hedge but another editor says there are up to 40. Editors have experience in various areas of finance and operations, differing from journalists who become experts about finance as they write about it, but have no practical work experience in the sector. The online newspaper publishes anonymously to protect the editors from retaliation for dissident speech. Durden maintains this protects its integrity, objectivity, and independence, as well. Durden cites the First Amendment to the United States Constitution and the 1995 United States Supreme Court case, McIntyre v. Ohio Elections Commission, which upheld anonymity as a right of free speech.
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January 31
Profile picture for Pasadenan
"But what would be the motive of such?" -

"the zero hedge manifesto
Submitted by Zero Hedge on 05/17/2009 20:03 -0500

our mission:

    * to widen the scope of financial, economic and political information available to the professional investing public.
    * to skeptically examine and, where necessary, attack the flaccid institution that financial journalism has become.
    * to liberate oppressed knowledge.
    * to provide analysis uninhibited by political constraint.
    * to facilitate information's unending quest for freedom.

our method: pseudonymous speech...

anonymity is a shield from the tyranny of the majority. it thus exemplifies the purpose behind the bill of rights, and of the first amendment in particular: to protect unpopular individuals from retaliation-- and their ideas from suppression-- at the hand of an intolerant society.

Tyler Durden
You don't have access to this information.
"

Looks like just about anyone can contribute with just about any motive, and they protect anonymity and pseudonyms as that is their method of challenging those in political and economic control.

As I have no info on Tyler, I have no clue what the motives were.  HOWEVER, my guess is that it is big U.S. economic interests trying to convince U.S. and Chinese investors to invest in U.S. Stocks, and not Chinese Real Estate, based on the charts referenced from Bloomberg.
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January 31
"I read that article as 100% "propaganda"... 

I think you might be right.  But what would be the motive of such? 

The 10 YR T-Note Yield slinky-ed down to 2.65% overnight, Stocks are in the toilet out of the gate. MBS are a Pumpin. Lower rates continue to be the theme. 

 
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January 31
Profile picture for Pasadenan
Don't know why that last post double posted, and I really should check the average household size in both countries again (discrepancy on the value in the last two almost identical posts needs to be cleaned up).

4.152% average ZMM 30 yr fixed quote for Thursday:









As can be seen, Thursday's open was quite a bit above Wednesday's close, and Thursday's close was above Thursday's open.  And the after hour quotes are out of the ball-park by a couple basis points.
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January 31
Profile picture for Pasadenan
I read that article as 100% "propaganda"... the title "has burst", but then first line "has to burst"... over 90% households "own", but the construction of housing is still government subsidized, and is mostly high-rise condos.

And family household size?  Certainly not an average of less than 3 as it is in the U.S.

Sure, many people in China don't make a living wage.  But then, many households don't make a living wage here either, and arbitrarily changing the minimum wage is going to do nothing to address that.
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January 31
Profile picture for Pasadenan
I read that article as 100% "propaganda"... the title "has burst", but then first line "has to burst"... over 90% households "own", but the construction of housing is still government subsidized, and is mostly high-rise condos.

And family household size?  Certainly not an average of less than 2 as it is in the U.S.

Sure, many people in China don't make a living wage.  But then, many households don't make a living wage here either, and arbitrarily changing the minimum wage is going to do nothing to address that.
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January 31
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"UPDATED : Wednesday, 27 November, 2013, 3:32am"

Don't know why I read it as "January"; and I kept wondering how it could be only 9 months, and 3 more months to the New Year, as I knew Chinese New-Year is late January to mid February, following a lunar calendar.
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January 31
Bravo!


That article is a couple months old.

Here is a more recent one which implies that it does not matter what they do, the housing bubble is getting ready to burst

 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-28/chinas-households-massively-exposed-housing-bubble-has-burst

no links allowed 

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January 30
Profile picture for Pasadenan
Lets, see; a Chinese Yuan Renminbi is present worth 16.5 cents U.S.

So, that 1.9 Trillion Y in mortgage loans is just $314B.  The U.S. Treasury bought about $40B MBS each month over the past calendar year with imaginary money.  That comes to $480B.  That is for a population of 317.5 million.  China's population is 1355.7 Million, or over 4-1/4 times the U.S. population.

So, if we multiplied the U.S. FED subsidized mortgages by 4.25 times to extrapolate for the Chinese population, how does their mortgage loans compare?

More of the pot calling the kettle black, and scapegoating U.S. economic problems?

So, China is experiencing a housing bubble like we did?  At least they are addressing it, rather than letting it build to a point of collapse as we did.

And the "quotas"?  Mostly reached by the "rush to buy" due to an economic bubble?  It isn't all the banks that reached their quota.  And the quota certainly has a lot of similarities to the U.S. visa and immigration quotas.

Looks like more scapegoating to me.

And how many U.S. banks did we put permanently out of business due to the housing bubble correction that we intentionally delayed on?  Just to transfer those accounts and banking services to the mega-bank corporations?

The article states "mostly small and medium size lenders".  Sound familiar?

Is this one of the economic news items from Wednesday that affected U.S. MBS pricing?  Perhaps one of the economic items I couldn't find?
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January 30
 

More Chinese banks stop mortgage loans as quotas run out


Survey shows the trend that started in top-tier cities has extended to 17 areas as quotas run out and authorities tighten restrictions on prices


http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1366537/more-chinese-banks-stop-mortgage-loans-quotas-run-out 


 
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January 30
Profile picture for Pasadenan
Something is wrong with the mortgage rate chart and the "current rates" posted in the right margin.  It has been giving a "current rate" of 4.15% for 30 yr fixed for most of the day, but checking the interactive graph with the link on the chart, it has been indicating 4.17% for the last several hours, and that is still known to be obsolete by about 2 hours.

I don't know what is causing the delay, but it appears to be substantially confusing to those that don't recognize that it is not "current".
Anyway, the ZMM average increased a couple basis points today... those "reprising for the better" apparently didn't get passed down to most of the robo-quoters.
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January 30
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Thought I would paste the flipped image of the FNMA 3.5 MBS pricing on the 10 yr treasury yield for today to see how it looks:



It didn't track quite as well today as yesterday, but the peaks and valleys still correspond.  It appears about 1 basis point per 3/32 today. 101 6/32 is about a yield of 2.70% annual.
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January 30
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Well, so far we have seen almost no change in ZMM hourly averages (still about 4.15%); but they are a few hours behind, so who knows?  Close yesterday was 4.136% for 30 yr fixed.  Looks like today will be exceptionally flat, with an open and close and average about 4.15%.
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January 30
It's called cushioning, fluff or padding, take your choice. 
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January 30
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So, MBS pricing is back to yesterday's close.  I'm failing to see how that amounts to "repricing for the better"... it should be the same as yesterday's close.


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January 30
Positive Reprices coming in. Some .375% - .500%  better than this mornings opening 
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January 30
It seems like the overnight rate would have been higher. A  loosening of the talons? 

10 yr T-note yield camped at 2.70. 

MBS are recovering losses from this morning. If thing finish on the upside today it would be a strong showing, that despite tapering or economic data, rates will continue their creep lower for some time to come.  
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January 30
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Only thing missing.... the overnight rate, set to 0.04% annual for tonight.
So, they are tapering it back, after their taper announcement yesterday.

Apparently they didn't need to prop up the interest rates for a high GDP, due high unemployment and low pending home sales.  A drop of 8.7% month over month in pending home sales compared to a consensus drop of 0.5% month over month is significant.

I'm sure they will not just blame the weather, but also higher interest rates, and job insecurity.  They forgot about demographic shifts and retiring baby boomers a long time ago.  Not to mention that prices had been rising due to increased demand based on low interest rates.  And that many cash investors had bought when prices were lower, artificially raising housing demand.  Those cash investors have no intention to overpay.  They also forgot that high Realtor fees and other transaction costs have caused people to re-think the "move every 7 years" philosophy and that people are staying in their ownership homes longer.  If they didn't want to stay, they are recognizing that renting is cheaper.

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January 30
GDP - HIGH  Consensus - 3.0%  Actual-  3.2%
The economy is stagnant at best. The growth is due to naturally occurring factors such as inflation and  immigration. Household spending was up, savings were down. Sounds like the Holidays to me

Unemployment - HIGH   Consensus  -  327K  - Actual - 348K
One word... Obamascare. More of the same to come. 

Pending Home Sales - LOW Consensus - -04 Actual -  - 8.7 
Much to be said here. I will let someone else say it. But please do not blame it on the cold weather. 

10 Year T-note yield currently @ 2.70 (stopped, dropped and rolling on the floor) 

MBS - Down early but recovering 

Interest Rates - Rate sheets higher by roughly .25% cost compared to close yesterday 
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January 30
Profile picture for Pasadenan
So reading off the offset and scaling factors from that chart...
4.17% ZMM 30 yr fixed quote average corresponds to 101-0/32 FNMA 3.5 MBS pricing.

and 2-3/4 basis points corresponds to a 6/32 change in MBS pricing.  So that would be about 2.2 (32nds) per basis point.  1/32 corresponds to about 0.46 basis points.  Likely, 1/16 per basis point is a good enough approximation, though it really came out to a bit more than 1/15 per basis point.

With the 23/16% offset that we have been using for the 10 year treasury yield, that 4.17% for 101 FNMA3.5 comes to 2.733% for 10yr T-note yield.


Of course, that is only a "correlation" and not a "causation", and is not a fixed relationship, so that conversion is only approximately good for yesterday.

And as can be seen, the MBS pricing and treasury yield responded immediately to market pressures, but the mortgage rates changes were quite a bit delayed and quite a bit smoothed, so one can't use those conversion factors for mortgage rates anyway during dynamic market movement.  One needs to wait for the "steady state" and factor in the delays.  (Don't estimate based on the transient response).

6 basis points movement peak to trough transient response on the MBS pricing.
7 basis points movement peak to trough transient response on the 10 yr treasury yield.
It appears the 10 yr treasury yield is slightly more volatile than the MBS pricing. though they tracked quite well until near the end of the securities trading day.
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January 30
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