Rates on the move again!

The mortgage rate Gods are giving those fence sitters that missed last week another opportunity. I wonder if they will wait again.

Bring on Pasa and the charts.
  • August 18 2011 - US
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Answers (4801)

 "For every action there is a reaction of equal or greater force?"

i don't subscribe to application of physics to financial markets
  • December 10
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"in desperate search for justification only to feel good that there is logical explanation..." 


Markets were flat today, nothing to see here...  

OR
 
 For every action there is a reaction of equal or greater force? 
  • December 10
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"The U.S. stock market is mostly responding to Congress delayed action on the budget, as usual."

I disagree just like I disagree with "stocks sink w/ oil" headline... everlasting human search for cause and effect, even if such is connecting dots postmortem in desperate search for justification only to feel good that there is logical explanation... 

Cheers!
richard
  • December 10
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  • Neil RZillow
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  • December 10
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"stocks sink with oil" -

Remember, correlation does not imply causation.

No question that low oil prices affect foreign economies and foreign stocks, and many U.S. energy sectors... but it also increases the bottom line for many U.S. manufacturing and transportation business, and increases consumer spending in Retail.

The U.S. stock market is mostly responding to Congress delayed action on the budget, as usual. If economists don't see it, they are wearing blinders.
  • December 10
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Overlay chart is ready to post,... there is a "disconnect" at market opening between the 10 year treasury and FNMA 3.5 MBS pricing... 4 basis point shift in the alignment. At close of market, this meant interest rates are approximately 2 basis points above yesterday on average.

(still can't post images).

Remember, as of the last time Congress delayed passing a budget and delayed authorizing borrowing, as soon as Congress made their decision, even before the President signed the bill, 10 year treasury yields went up, stock values went up, and mortgage interest rates went up.

This is a "temporary" low, only until Congress acts, which we already know they eventually will, it is only a question of "what they will do",and "when".
  • December 10
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  • December 10
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Today

 The topic of Oil caused the big pop in the 10 year auction 

Tomorrow and beyond 
 
The 10 Year going to 1% could maybe impact interest rates? 

I am not so sure the shutting down of the govt matters because there are no real sock me in the nose type economic ramifications.  Just a bunch of fluff. Life goes on. 
  • December 10
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Well, that's what Clay said...

 

 Info From The Bond King:   10 Year at 1.00 if Oil Drops to $40

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/jeffrey-gundlach-webcast-december-9-2014-12

Saudi oil minister: Why should we cut production? 


 
  • December 10
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No, today it is not "all about oil", it is mostly about Federal "politics". The oil report was published at 10 AM eastern time, and the charts indicate less than two basis point change following. The larger change starts at 1 pm Eastern Time, which corresponds to the 10 year treasury auction, and continues through the 2 pm hour when the Treasury budget report was released. Yes, there is an increase in oil reserves, fed by more imported oil, due to dropping oil prices, due to less demand in other countries and no cut back in pumping by the supplying countries. But the change doesn't affect stocks and securities very much, compared to the risk of the Federal Government not paying its bills. The deadline for passing some legislation on the budget issue is tomorrow, otherwise, some bills cannot be paid, as there is presently a $56.8 Billion deficit (November). As the budget is not balanced, something must be done to authorize borrowing, and authorize paying bills for employees... If no budget, then most government employees don't get paid, other than self-funded programs like "social security" that are not budget items. Congress only has until Midnight Eastern Time to act. But likely they will "punt" giving themselves only another week at the outside. Yes, it is possible they can postpone the decision until they get back from their break after the "new year", but more likely they want to resolve it this year, as the change in elected Senators may make the budget process even harder next year. Remember, the last time this came up, congress decided to put the issue off until "after the election". It is now after the election, so the time of reckoning has come again.
  • December 10
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Dragged down by the stone... It's all about OIL. 
  • December 10
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10 year treasury yield drops to 2.16% today...

About the only economic news (other than the budget impasse) is the oil report and the Treasury Budget. Also the 10 year treasury auction.

Treasury deficit decreased, so that should have raised stocks and interest rates, but the congress budget impasse trumps that.
  • December 10
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that should have read "read" not "ready".... the edit button is not working for me either...
  • December 09
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Maybe it is an indication Zillow customer service wants to post them? The thread views go down when Zillow posts my charts, indicating people are coming to ready comments about the market dynamics, not just look at charts without interpretation.

By the way, it appears that the drop in rates and stock market is actually related to the Federal Budget again... Congress only has until Thursday to pass a budget or the spending limit is reached. Likely, Congress will "punt" giving a few more days to pass a budget. I don't expect a shut down at Christmas... but it will result if they can't come to some agreement. But for the most part, they agree, it is mostly the executive order regarding immigration, and the mandatory health insurance law that is holding things up. Not to mention, it only got out of committee today...
  • December 09
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Sorry Pasa, the layover charts I posted were apparently banished to HTML Island

 "An error happend (spell check me) . If this problem persists you might contact the administrator"

  • December 09
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Wooo Nelly

  • December 09
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  • December 09
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I see it lets you upload images... the overlay chart for the day is ready to upload, but it won't let me upload it. There is not even an option on my profile page to upload a new avatar.

I don't know if they did it on purpose, or if it was just one of their typical "changes" to break things. I'll send you the overlay, in case you want to post it...
  • December 09
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  • December 09
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I can post any chart already uploaded to the internet. I can't upload any images to this site. I did not try loading the images to my profile avatar yet though...
  • December 09
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testing


 
  • December 09
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So you can pour a virtual vodka cranberry but you can't post a chart?  
  • December 09
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but I can't edit any post... so leaving out part of the html is problematic.
  • December 09
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  • December 09
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I can post images referenced from other websites too...

http://alfoart.com/images/gif_glass.gif

I just can't load any to the site... (I can even still enlarge them...)
  • December 09
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Testing from Planet Chrome 

 
  • December 09
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Should I have Neil post charts again since Zillow disabled me from posting images yesterday, or should I just "forget it"?
It appears they disabled the posting image posting with style sheets turned off shortly after I reported some other website "bugs". I guess they don't like being told there is bugs on the website. OR, maybe they didn't like my comment on the thread: http://www.zillow.com/advice-thread
/Potential-Upcoming-Changes-to-your-Zestimate/557169/
  • December 09
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Pasa, stay away from the TV!!    

Bonds and rate's are getting an early Christmas present in their stockings again today.  Stocks, it's coal for you (or crude in this case)





  • December 09
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can't post images again...
  • December 08
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broken again...
  • December 08
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