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Recovery is imminent for California's economy and housing market

Profile picture for Tap012
Contributions: 220
Economists predict California's recovery will start in the middle of this year. Also, they forecast that house prices will rise in 2010 in CA by 0.8% and 1.6% in Orange County.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cal-econ18-2009jun18,0,6354615.story

"An economic recovery will begin in the middle of this year, but many Californians won't feel the benefits of it until 2010, forecasters at Chapman University said today.

That's because the Golden State is in its deepest and most profound recession since the Great Depression, dragged down by sluggish construction activity in both the residential and nonresidential markets.

The Chapman forecasters expect nonfarm payroll employment in California to continue falling through the end of the year before beginning to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2010. California will lose an estimated 437,000 jobs in 2009 and an additional 56,000 jobs next year, they said.

Chapman forecasters expect home prices to strengthen in 2010 as banks become more willing to lend to prospective buyers and fewer new homes come on the market. Home prices will rise 0.8% in the state and 1.6% in Orange County after falling by about 25% a year the last two years, the economists say.
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June 17 - US

Replies (16)

Profile picture for Spleng
Contributions: 4633
"If you believe us, recovery is imminent," said James Doti, president of Chapman University."

If you believe us?  LOL these guys and Tap012 are going to be gulping down heaping portions of crow.

Recovery is imminent for California's economy?  Are you brain dead?
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June 17
Profile picture for space_acer
Contributions: 4346
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"But that's created a pent-up demand for products such as electronics that consumers have been waiting to buy until they feel more optimistic about the future, Adibi said. The manufacturing and transportation sectors will also grow as other countries ramp up their own stimulus packages, helping retailing grow globally."

Here is the kicker... and if see higher demand grow, what then?
All the electronic and high tech consumer/corporate demand will be filled by Chinese factories and their cheap labor.  The operating margins have been falling because such products are deflationary.  Who are you going to hire because of this new demand?  

 WE DONT MAKE ANYTHING ANYMORE!

These writers are living in the prior century! 





 
 

 
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June 17
Profile picture for BMFPitt
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I'd rather bet the Detroit Lions will win the next 5 Super Bowls.  At least I'd have the chance that 31 plane crashes would make it possible.
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June 17
Profile picture for SoCal BubbleBrain
Cut tappedout some slack. The kid is in his/her early 20s! 
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June 17
Profile picture for real estate mike
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"recovery is imminent" Imminent means about to occur. What will cause this imminent housing recovery? Treasury printing money that doesn't exist, tax payers money for downpayments to permanently pump up housing, huge job creation in U.S., stronger stock market without fundamentals, costs of materials becoming so high from inflation that existing housing becomes in demand? The recovery is coming but not imminently, so sad.
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June 17
Profile picture for dacolan
Contributions: 474
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With the state budget upside down by a record amount (lots of state employees about to be laid off - and the Feds have already denied the aid request by our state gov't), compounded by rising taxes, the car dealerships that are about to be closed, the glut of the housing bust yet to be realized (Alt-A/Option ARMs won't peak until 2011, most of which are in CA), rising fuel and energy costs, and unemployment already at generational highs... how can these quack 'economists' possibly believe that tripe they're peddling.
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June 18
Profile picture for kelargo
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June 22
Profile picture for Lady Chattel
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If we think it, breathe it, feel it..........we will make it come true.......come on everyone.....let's drink from the fountain of stupid and chant over and over "the recovery is imminent"
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June 22
Profile picture for Walty804
Contributions: 1660
its really simple...the housing market recovers when all the other markets recover too...no sooner...no later. when you see the ecomomy recover you will see the markets recover and vice versa.
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June 22
Profile picture for space_acer
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Back in early-mid 90s most other states did recovery much earlier than California.  


Perhaps someone should define what recovery actually means?

If history is any guide, the jobs we lost never came back. 

 
 
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June 22
Profile picture for Caveat Emptor
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its really simple...the housing market recovers when all the other markets recover too...no sooner...no later.

err right, its that simple. you ought to be chair of citi...
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June 23
Profile picture for jal74
Contributions: 969
Read their June 2008 forecast to understand just how wrong these economicsts from the podunk university can be

http://www.chapman.edu/images/userImages/cwilliam/Page_4388/June2008PressRelease.pdf

Regards
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June 23
Profile picture for nvchaz
Contributions: 1617
The recovery is intimate!

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June 23
Profile picture for Walty804
Contributions: 1660
err right, its that simple. you ought to be chair of citi..

so you have another solution i am sure!

 long and complex full of graphs and charts, links and data?
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June 23
Profile picture for edtilton
11.5% of the workforce is out of work. Unless you believe that all of them will find work before they run out of unemployment checks, we haven't hit bottom
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June 23
Profile picture for space_acer
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Since March 2009

and the Exodus continues.....
Golden State losing folks as old Dust Bowl beckons

The result was five consecutive years when California saw more residents going to other states than coming. Although many stayed closer to home – Nevada, Oregon, Arizona – the mid-South saw a large influx.From 2004 through 2007, about 275,000 Californians left the Golden State for the old Dust Bowl states of Oklahoma and Texas, twice the number that left those two states for California, recent Internal Revenue Service figures show. In fact, the mid-South gained more residents from California during those four years than either Oregon, Nevada or Arizona. The trend continued into 2008

http://www.sacbee.com/ourregion/story/1944947.html?ref=patrick.net
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June 23
 

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