Alerts are a great way for you to stay up-to-date on things you care about. We will email you a list of the new items that match your criteria at a time of your choosing.
Oh boy! Its starting!
Closed escrows are up 68.4% from last year...
You guys going to answer this?
Sac is getting close to 50% off peak. Somethings gotta give.
The bottom?
Rob
Its hard to tell with only one month. I would need to see more data. The most telling statistic was the incredibly low new listings for the month, given that it was april. The only thing about pendings I care about is the trend in % that does go to final closure.
The big question is have people just given up and won't be listing because they are underwater but are willing to carry or will foreclosures begin to skyrocket in a few months as people have given up and will just let the foreclosure process put their house on the market. Its obvious from the price declines that there are a lot of underwater people in that area. Could it be a bottom - possible.
Regards
Since September 2009
Elizabeth,
Can you post the data for May? I haven't seen anything on it yet.
way too early to wave the "bottom" victory flag elzibeth_1... (there's more? cloning?)
Check out nasdaq collapse after tech boom, or just about any other famous bubble, there is always an early bottom, followed by more crash... California is entering a recession, the effects of which have not started on real estate yet... and foreclosures are still coming fast and heavy...
1. it could be a bottom, but way way to early to cheer.
2. it could be some pentup demand taking advantage of the first serious foreclosure/builder liquidations. Will the demand last longer or the foreclosures? only time will tell.
3. how bad will the recession be? small like all others in the last 30 years, or is this one a systemic end to a 50 year credit driven false economy? If the recession lasts more than 1 year, and proves steep, there will be more price drops, together with rent drops.
nasdaq graph, note the first steep drop, followed by recovery of half the drop, THEN, the drop continues in earnest... and stays down all the way till today...
California April 2008 Home Sales
May 22, 2008
http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/RRCA080522.aspx
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is at record levels, financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is at a six-year low. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, non-owner occupied buying activity is increasing, DataQuick reported.
So who is buying that is driving sales higher ?
Space,
You have anything specifically on Sac Town?
If I ever saw an agent not say everything is all rosy in the real estate world I would die of shock.
I'm an agent, check some of my postings...
You are an odd exception Rob. I admire you for that.
I'm in sac and prices are continually dropping. I've never seen prices drop so much so fast. Honestly, it's amazing..depressing...something.
Didn't April set foreclosure records for NOD's and what not? Those won't even hit for another 90 days?
What bottom?
Price drops in Sacramento have also been extremely patchy. The downtown core has not dropped much in price since there was not much building in the area. The suburbs have been hammered...and in some cases are now selling for beneath replacement cost. Who's going to buy all those houses that are 3000 square feet and 45 minutes away with the price of energy what it is?
Sactown had it coming...real estate was spec'd out of control here. It's also the ugly stepchild of San Francisco and LA..it needs to be cheap by comparison.
warrior, I don't know if I ever mentioned it, but I spent two years in Davis... I liked Davis, but didn't think much of sac-o-tomatoes... (god I miss skiing at tahoe though!!!!!)
I still don't understand how anyone can say we're close to hitting bottom when there's many 2006 ARM's out there resetting in the next 3 years and if prices have reached 2003 prices how can they refinance? Hopefully they are all saving what they are saving from their super low interest loans.
Maybe they can't refinance... but it seems there are people lined up to scoop forclosures at this price? Maybe?
Didn't know that Rob...Davis is pleasant, but life there is pretty much all about UCD. Not a whole lot else happening. The central valley..Daivs included..can just be a gnarly place to live. All the pollution gets trapped here by the mountains and it is hot as h*ll. It really does need to be relatively cheap.
Tahoe is certainly a gem...and not just the lake and the skiing. There are botannical preserves in the greater Tahoe forest (butterfly valley) that will blow you away. It's definately worth fighting for.
"I still don't understand how anyone can say we're close to hitting bottom when there's many 2006 ARM's out there resetting in the next 3 years and if prices have reached 2003 prices how can they refinance? Hopefully they are all saving what they are saving from their super low interest loans."
don't forget about the new FHA loans, the loan limit was increased to over 700k with only 3% down and with poor credit history. many of the people who face the coming ARM reset will be able to refinance.
it could be a dead cat bounce....but at least a temporary bottom is in. couple months ago when the prices where falling like crazy many people were still saying "it's a great time to buy"...today while prices in some areas of the country begin to stabilize, 90% of the people are predicting that the prices will fall at least another 20-40%....and this is a good indicator of a bottom :)
look at the above NASDAQ chart after 9-11 and in mid 02...I trade stocks for years now, and remember very well all the negative comments ppl made about the market back then...
I also remember all the positive comments back in 2004-05 from almost everyone I talked to about housing being the best investment ever: "no matter what price you pay, and no matter what rate/loan you got yourself into"....this was a sign that the top was near....
When they don't drop any more for 6 months and all the foreclosures are settled then maybe you can say it's the bottom and I just don't see evidence of that happening any time soon. (IMO) but what do I know. That's why I like to hear all the opinions on Zillow.
don't forget about the new FHA loans, the loan limit was increased to over 700k with only 3% down and with poor credit history. many of the people who face the coming ARM reset will be able to refinance.
Not many will be able to refinance when they are more than 20% underwater on their LTV. If they could have refinanced they would have already. In addition, FHA has adopted a second appraisal requirement for houses in declining areas.
Outside of california and the washington DC area there are only a few counties (131) that qualify under the FHA guidelines for over 417K (this is out of a total of over 3,000 counties) and only 102 counties in total (including CA and wash DC - over half btw) that have loan limits over $550,000
I would beg to differ on refincings helping any at this point
I agree, not everyone will be able to refinance, but some will, and some already did, even if its' only 10-20% of all the pending foreclosures, it will slow down the decline.
they are calling the bottom in phoenix for similar reasons: prices have already dropped alot, inventory has dropped a little over the last few months, sales have come up alot...
nevertheless, foreclosurse and NTR (90 day before foreclosure) keep climging. today alone, 400 more people got their 90 day late notice, that may be a one day record. So the question remains, is this a temporary spring/ "honey look how much the price dropped" buying boom, that will fade in another month or two? or is it sustained buying that will last for years? It is JUST ENOUGH buying to keep the foreclosure from piling up on top of each other, and I'm not seeing any evidence that foreclosures will slow down any time soon, if the buying fades into fall, which it commonly does, the market will become identifiably worse very quickly.
FHA loans are great, but are pretty hard to qualify for. The reason most of these troubled borrowers went to the more exotic products was that they did not qualify for FHA loans. And even if they do qualify now, they need a 3% equity cushion minimum based on a conservative FHA appraisal -- if they bought from 2004 forward, there is no chance of that.
The idea that fha refis could stop 10 to 20% of pending foreclosures is wildly optimistic.
advertisement
... and, it's free and anonymous
Zillow® Advice depends on each member to keep it a safe, fun, and positive place. If you see abuse, flag it. More on our Good Neighbor Policy
Sacramento as a case study
sponsored by
neverborne
Contributions: 123
View full profile
http://www.sacrealtor.org/documents/about/statistics/April2008.pdf
Since Sacramento has been leading the charge in this whole mess, seems like our stats might be noteworthy. April MLS show prices continue to dump at an incredible rate, but now... the inventory is starting to move. Anybody smell a bottom here or is this just a dead kitty/spring bounce.
If you find this content is in violation of our Good Neighbor Policy, please let us know and we will review it.
We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.