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- amaryllism
- Contributions:183
i don't think your price will get more aggressive in 8 months (calculating till march, which is what i think of as spring.) i'm not an official doomer, but i can tell you that prices are going to go down, perhaps significantly, between now and spring. traditionally, spring is better for selling than fall/winter, but i don't think spring of 2009 is going to be better than fall of 2008.
you see, you're already getting foreclosures. as more and more option-arms, alt-a's, etc. reset, you're going to see even more foreclosures. (i think 2009 is going to represent a major reset point.) so, unless your idea of "aggressive pricing strategy" is listing at the same price as foreclosures, try to sell now. either way, you very well may have to accept a lot less than you want, or not be able to sell at all.
- ZUser1
- Contributions:71
If it were me I would wait until early Spring. By wating you will get the election out of the way as will the Thanksgiving, Christmas and Near Year's vacations.
Whether the price of houses goes up or down in the meantime is irrelevant because the house you buy will be relatively, correspondingly, cheaper or dearer.
ZUser1
- amaryllism
- Contributions:183
zuser1: that depends. ignoring whether or not she may end up having to sell for less than she owes, it sounds like oregonorbust is moving from one area to another. i really, super, ultra nice house in my area would cost $250,000 (we're talking mansion). that wouldn't get you a 400sq ft shack in most places in california. also, some areas, again california, are having a serious price correction, while others are not (well, not so much).
all of this could mean that she ends up losing big on the selling side and not be able to buy something even halfway comparable in her new area.
- amaryllism
- Contributions:183
a
- amaryllism
- Contributions:183
a really super . . . not i really super . . .
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
It sounds like the only thing that will change between now and next spring is how much money you have on hand, and how much your house will sell for. Since it is almost an absolute certainty that you'll sell for much less next spring, it would seem logical to do so now.
- ZUser1
- Contributions:71
amaryllism: You are correct but that's why I qualified it with "relatively."
ZUser1
- amaryllism
- Contributions:183
but, zuser, you also qualified with correspondingly, which would imply that her buying price would be proportionate to her selling price. buying and selling within the same area should produce corresponding prices, but buying and selling in different areas may not produce corresponding prices.
in fairness to you, i work at a law firm, and have become unnaturally aware of the slightest nuances in verbiage
i still say sell now as opposed to spring. i wish i could see her house, though. if it is a starter home, spring would make more sense, because federal funding for first time buyer programs gets used up by fall (so i understand). so many "ifs" in the housing market.
- ZUser1
- Contributions:71
Thank you for your point of view. Maybe I should have left out the commas and interjected "and/or" but you will know what some lawyers say about "and/or." :-)
There is, IMO, another valid point for hanging on until next spring and is that many savvy buyers will look at DOM (staleness) and pitch their offers accordingly. IMO, Given her circumstances, I think the lady would be better off waiting.
- andyman68
- Contributions:179
You could always put the house on the market until December. If it doesn't sell, pull it and then relist in Feb. This way, you have a chance to sell sooner. If it doesn't sell, then it can be a new listing in the Spring.
I'd say wait until spring. You have a better chance in selling during spring time and higher offers. The $300 billion housing bill will take effect this Oct. 1 and it will help 400,000 homeowners avoid foreclosure or modify their home loans. This scenario will decrease inventories in most markets especially places where it didn't get hit hard. In spring time, you have more serious buyers and less looky-loos.
- Aldreth
- Contributions:4226
Interest rates next year will kill you.
- 2 Big 2 Fail
- Contributions:0
YAWN! More blanket non-fact based statements!
- Aldreth
- Contributions:4226
How does one stop inflation Alpine the all knowing?
- 2 Big 2 Fail
- Contributions:0
IN their latest statements, the Fed Reserve expects inflation to moderate late this year/ early next year. Do some research [content removed by moderator for being a personal insult]
- Aldreth
- Contributions:4226
And why would inflation "moderate"?
- 2 Big 2 Fail
- Contributions:0
I don't know. Why don't you e-mail the Federal Reserve and ask them? [content removed by moderator for being a personal insult], the price of oil has fallen significantly recently. Lower oil prices will reduce inflation since the price of almost everything you buy is connected to the price of oil.
- Aldreth
- Contributions:4226
The price of oil is down quite simply due to very basic chartology. It has fallen below its moving average.
As far as interest rates, I don't need to email the FED because I already KNOW what WILL happen. It is absolutely inescapable. Rates will rise because of a horrible monetary policy and a debasing of the dollar.
Did you know that in 1987 we were a creditor nation? Now we are the largest debtor ever... EVER
We are nearly 15 trillion dollars in debt, and every 15 months it gains another TRILLION.
Rates must rise or we face something truly frightening and the FED simply wont allow it to happen, unless they are trying to destroy the united states economy completely.
- Aldreth
- Contributions:4226
The next decade or so will be the worst this country has seen in a very, very long time.
Selling your home now rather than later is your only choice.
- Captain Hightop
- Contributions:107
If the OP is certain that a move is eminent next year then the only rationale for not selling now is that the prices are going to rise between now and then, either due to an upswing or just due to seasonal variations. A one year window is a very short time and I doubt anyone would recommend buying a house in even normal times if you only were planning on keeping it one year. Given the turmoil lately I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking that big of a bet that I knew the market that well.
Whether it will work or not depends on the area that the poster is going to be selling from. It is possible that things will be better in one year, but who knows? Is it really worth the risk if in one year you are unable to sell at the price you would like? What happens if you can’t sell at that time? Is the move off? Is that a risk you want to take? It's a risk-benefit analysis that only the OP can really answer. Are you a gambler?
- Aldreth
- Contributions:4226
- wetdawgs
- Contributions:26841
Question 1: "in the process of preparing the house to sell" What does this mean? Is this a two week decluttering and freshening of paint, or is there major work to do. If the former, the answer is different than the later.
Question 2: If you sell now and have to bring money to closing, won't you have a very tough winter even if renting?
- mks18412
- Contributions:31
So what the Doomers are saying is do not sell or wait a couple of years. I personally plan on listing March/April of 09'. Are you saying that this is a bad idea. The Doomers keep saying next year will not be any different. That interest rates are going to go way up. That no one will make a profit and I will have to take a loss. How do people know this? Can you please look into your crystal ball and tell what my future holds too? Thanks
'' Can you please look into your crystal ball and tell what my future holds too? Thanks'
I was going to answer with some personal advice having bought and sold several homes in the past. But nevermind. [content removed by moderator for being a personal insult]
- James Peterson, "jpeters32"
- Contributions:48
Where do you live? Every market is different. If you ask on a nationwide level, of course the doomers will eat you up. If you live in a fairly stable market you need to look at the actual #'s this year and see what your local trend is. I know some markets are rebounding in certain areas and other areas are on a steady delcine. What is your average days on market over the last 6 months? How many day's of inventory does your local market have. These are the important questions you need to have answered. Not " Are we going to correct the nation's debt problem or are we heading into a great depression?" Get the facts from a local expert and they can help you answer your questions better than anyone on this post...
- Nauntie
- Contributions:144
One other remote (outside of the DC beltway) impact is the election and the very real potential of not having a federal budget for at least the first six months of the FY, which starts in October 2008. As a federal employee, we are all watching and waiting for the elections, the fall outs and the inevitable "Continuing Resolution" until everyone gets their desks cleared out or moved in. That may impact Federal funding for loans, etc. I'm just sayin.....
- amaryllism
- Contributions:183
zuser: death to the and/or! (a local judge actually said that in open court. i just about gave myself a hernia i was trying so hard not to laugh.)
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
Alpine, oil prices are down to what they were in May. They are still really high.
I can't believe anybody is recommending that they wait until spring. There is not a single economist that predicts house prices will be anything but significantly lower by then.
- amaryllism
- Contributions:183
yeah, i wasn't getting gas for reasonable price in may. i don't know what everyone is talking about there. yeah! gas is only $4 a gallon now! whoopee!
(and don't tell me what they pay for gas in europe either. you can do without a car in europe. heck, you could walk across a country before lunch in europe!)
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
amary, exactly. I keep hearing that Europe laughs at us for "whining" (as Gramm put it) about gas prices. Fact is that our entire economy and society are built on cheap oil. We're really unique in that most of this large country has automobiles and people drive every single day. We simply cannot take this absurd spike in oil prices. It's pretty easy to forget that the median salary is onl $45k, and an extra $2k in fuel costs per year (not just personal gas, but cost of living increases impacted on everything else as well) can send people on the margins into the poor house. It is not cool at all.
Sell now or wait for Spring?
My husband and I are planning to relocate out of state next summer (2009--late summer/fall) and are now in the process of preparing our house to sell. This is a voluntary move, my husband has a job offer, but we are not in financial trouble or needing to move or take this job. (We just really, really want to!:-) Anyways, we had originally thought that we would go ahead and put the house on the market now...if by some stroke of fate, it sells, we will just rent until it is time to relocate. The biggest problem is that, like almost everywhere else, we are competing with some foreclosure/short sale comps in the neighborhood. Anyways, if we list now, we have more time/exposure, but if we wait for the Sprimg to list, we could price our home more aggresively (husband is an independent contractor and he gets paid in the spring...but we have no income coming in in the winter and all of our cash reserves are needed to get us through until more money starts coming in in the spring). We already know that we will have to go to closing with some money and we are prepared to do that, but any ideas on what to do as far as listing now or waiting for the Spring and listing at a more aggressive price when we would have more wiggle room on price?
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