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Should I buy now or wait?

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December 18 2008 - Irvine
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Klarek had this to say:  ""Also, you remove a remark I made about Pasa being a drama queen, labeling as a personal insult, but allow NTETS to call me a scumbag, in a post halfway down this page - which I DID object to, with no action taken?"  Talk about a drama queen."

Yeah, I forgot you're the eloquent one who suggested that another poster, whom you disagreed with, to "STFU!" 

That, sir, or madam, is typical of the lack of communication skills of members of Zillow's doom & gloom squad.

Again, stop whining, Klarek.
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December 01 2009
Pasadenan, you're being paranoid, which is typical for you.  If you took the "deranged poster" remark personally, when no name was attached to it, that MAY be a simple case of "if the shoe fits, wear it."

And for you to make a remark, stating that you suspect that I'm "calling Zillow daily"  perhaps you should recall that you and I have been involved in this discussion for about 48 hours.

Actually, back when you WERE stalking me, displaying what you purported to be my home address, David Gibbon and Spencer Raskoff DID call me, to see what they could do to ease the tension that juvenile behavior caused.

You need to stop back-peddling, with your BS rationalizations.  What you did with your avatar yesterday was grossly offensive - that's why Zillow removed it immediately.  For you to then REPOST it, in defiance of Zillow's guidelines should have warranted a much stiffer penalty than a 10 minute "suspension".

Let me make this perfectly clear, Pasa.  You were wrong in what you did.  You did the exact same offense toward me back in April, with NO punishment that I'm aware of, and you did it twice yesterday.  The fact that you are still allowed to post here is amazing.
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December 01 2009
Sorry Lindsey but as you can see this has deteriorated ... locking this thread. C'mon guys, PLEASE!
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December 01 2009
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"I never stated that you are deranged - my opinions, mentally, don't count here."

"I have NO reason to contact Zillow's staff unless it's to complain about deranged posters who resort to insults and/or disparaging cartoons in their feeble attempts to bring a discussion to an inglorious thud."

Certainly I didn't try to bring any discussions to an end, and I didn't use any comics, and I don't consider most of my postings to be insults except when a person appears to insult themself..  But Zillow staff did state to me they were being called daily about my posts, and they would appreciate it if I wouldn't respond as it was taking a substantial amount of their resources.  And since of course I want them to spend the resources on the improvements we've talked about, I was more then willing to accommodate their request.
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December 01 2009
Klarek stated: "wanted the moderators to cut off our voices because they threaten your industry's monopoly on information."

Wrong!  I asked that offensive statements and cartoons be removed, and most of them were.

Stop whining, Klarek.
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for klarek the realist
"Also, you remove a remark I made about Pasa being a drama queen, labeling as a personal insult, but allow NTETS to call me a scumbag, in a post halfway down this page - which I DID object to, with no action taken?"

Talk about a drama queen.
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December 01 2009
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Bob: "Unfortunately, if you go back to the beginning of this thread, and scan to the end, there are plenty of examples of goon-like behavior from the Doom & Gloom Squad. ( Klarek's yelling at someone yesterday to STFU! is a prime example.)"

We had asked Linda a dozen times to stop promoting herself and stop repeating the b.s. about "interest rates are low so you should buy now".  I think my STFU was well-deserved.

You of all people have no right to call dissenters "bullies".  You're a tyrant, a poster-child for NAR, and full of crap.

Bob: "Obviously, Zillow's penchant for coddling, or tolerating many of the bullying goon-like behaviors exhibited by some, perpetuates an attitude of this side vs. that side, when in fact we should all be civil, trying to foster diplomatic conversations."

Says the lying industry propagandist that wanted the moderators to cut off our voices because they threaten your industry's monopoly on information.  You are one classless dude, Bob.
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December 01 2009
Also, you remove a remark I made about Pasa being a drama queen, labeling as a personal insult, but allow NTETS to call me a scumbag, in a post halfway down this page - which I DID object to, with no action taken?

Another example of a double standard when it comes to Realtors, it seems.
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December 01 2009
David, I didn't attack anyone - I merely issued a truthful response to Pasadenan's babble, below, and made some personal comments about each of them - they WERE directed at me.

It is quite laughable that you are making me out as the bad guy in this scenario.

Regarding suspensions, did Pasadenan agree to abide to your policy -AGAIN - and was given back his posting status?  Would it be that easy for me, as well?  Or do Realtors have a more stringent set of guidelines to follow?

How about you admonish Pasadenan to cease and desist talking about the reasons he was all too briefly suspended, yesterday, as opposed to be allowed to verbally justify his offenses?
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
As bob is quite aware, the only reason I looked up his business address last March is that he continued to post that prices were rising in his area.  So I posted "what area?", and he posted "look it up", that he had no time to answer such trivial questions.  So I did, only so that I could check the Zillow trend data for the areas he was talking about.

Yes, his profile now claims most of the areas he sells real estate in, which I assume to be what he was referencing back in March, but he never did clarify.  His profile states "South Orange County".  Typically I would consider Tustin as central Orange County and not south; but perhaps just semantics.  But it does surprise me that he didn't list Las Flores.  I'm sure it was just an over site.
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December 01 2009
Bob - did you not read my request? Did you not understand it? Name calling and personal attacks are not tolerated here. This is YOUR final warning in this regard; do it again and your account will be suspended pending your agreement to abide by the Good Neighbor Policy. Please respect this request and take a more professional approach to these discussions.
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December 01 2009
Pasadenan stated: "He ( Me.) continues to look to see if I posted something ( Uh, no, I recieve email notifications that there have been additions to the thread.) 

So I post data relent to the area, and he replies "just stick to the topic".  And then posts that I'm "deranged". ( I never stated that you are deranged - my opinions, mentally, don't count here.)  

And then posts that I've been stalking him. ( You did - which David Gibbon would verify.  Posting photos of what you purported to be my office address, and posting what you thought was my home address.  My office address is on my profile, and can easily be Google mapped.  My home address is none of your business.)  

And then posts that he never had any peace because of me. ( I stated that things between you and I have been relatively peaceful in the past 6 months, meaning we hadn't had a heated discussion about anything - like in this thread.) 

Then called Zillow's customer service number and had me banned for changing my avatar." ( I filled out a Flag which anyone can do. They acted on yours faster than most because of your previous history of abusive behavior, and the nature of your offense.)

[PERSONAL INSULTS REMOVED BY MODERATOR]
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December 01 2009
NTETS stated: "Includes data and transactions through 09/30/2009"

Agreed.  And since it is year over year data, that means that the starting period was no sooner than 9/30 of 08 - a full four months prior to the February 1st, 09, which I have been using as my earliest benchmark.

Subtle distinctions, perhaps, but relevant, nonetheless.
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for Mr Caveat
where do you get your 11 month old data figure?

david's link "Includes data and transactions through 09/30/2009"

i think i have a pretty good understanding of the meta-data zillow uses for their calcs, but if you can prove that its months old, by all means... i'll switch my vote in a heartbeat 2008 data is insufficient to generate any inference about 2010

of course, you do realize that in order for that to be true, the information provided by dataquick would have to be 11 months old too...and S&P, and others too... zillow uses thousands of data sources, probably 10s of thousands
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December 01 2009
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The link I gave was the identical one as given by David, except I set it to 1 year instead of 5 years.  It is current to last month.  I also posted the link to the curve that is current to this week.  The "local Info" pages lag slightly behind the other Z-index trend charts to allow more time for all the sales to be recorded and collected.  You can turn on the curves for any area you want, and you can select all units, condos, or single family, and you can select number of bedrooms if you use all units.

I have not provided any national data on this thread.  Only local data readily available on this website, provided by the generous people that provide this forum for discussion, with no user fees.

I have not written anything to argue with Bob since he has not been able to understand what I have written in support of Zillow's reference information; but have written only to clarify what information is readily available for those that would like to consider it.

But, for some odd reason, he keeps trying to attack me for anything I write.  He continues to look to see if I posted something, just so that I can be "attacked".  So I post data relent to the area, and he replies "just stick to the topic".  And then posts that I'm "deranged".  And then posts that I've been stalking him.  And then posts that he never had any peace because of me.  Then called Zillow's customer service number and had me banned for changing my avatar.

Really, the entire discussion is whether Zillow trend curves are useful, or if it is more helpful to have Median data that reflect a change in mortgage policies that doesn't state anything about value change of a fixed selection of units.  But in the meantime, many of us are being accused of things falsely for some unknown reason, but it appears to me that the only reason I'm attacked is I find Zillow's data more helpful that DataQuick's.
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December 01 2009
I appreciate your link David, but it differs somewhat from the discussion we've been having.

Most of Pasadenan's ponifications were in response to MY statement that since February 1st of 09, the median price in Orange County - not just Irvine - has risen 7.9%, according to Dataquick, as reported in the O.C. Register.

YOUR link differs in that it is based on figures as of last November, probably 13 months ago. ( It also only includes 4 of 20 neighborhoods.)

Since then, Pasa has attempted - as an outsider, not living in Orange County, or probably not reading the Register - to try to overpower my statement with his assertions that:  Number one, the Register isn't a credible source, which is poppycock, and number two, that Zillow's methodology is a superior venue for house value extrapolation, than Dataquick's.

I have kept trying to bring Pasa back to local sources, but he kept spewing mostly irrelevant National sources.  And then, when he didn't get his way - in overpowering my position - he turned to aberrant tactics, just as he's done in the past.

Let's talk Oranges, not apples, shall we?
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for Mr Caveat
i would think you would have closed the thread by now DG, the debate is pretty much over... especially if this is, as i suspect the thread where pasa made his NRA comments, of course i missed the whole thing so blah...

not a formal request, but i think the thread more than served its purpose
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
David -

Thank you for posting that link again.  I posted it a couple pages back.  But the only response I got was that it was irrelevant and flawed.

And thank you for letting me continue to post, even though I really should be doing something else that is more important right now.
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
DataQuick provides summary Real Estate recently sold data for many areas across the nation, to people that pay for their service.  Many newspapers like to quote DataQuick's reports, as many newspapers have many paid Realtor ® advertisements, and many of their readers look to their paper for Real Estate information.

Though much of their website is "pay for use"; their "news" section is readily accessible.

http://www.dqnews.com/

I have no objection to DataQuick's information nor methodology.  I only object to the misinterpretation of their data and the misapplication of their data.

And for me, it is not really the information I want in the first place.  I want trend curves for a consistent set of housing units; not just what recently sold.  Zillow's data is much more relevant for me, which is why I come to this site.  Yes, I would like full histograms, and would like upper and lower quartile index trends, and the standard deviation for upper and lower chi functions; and I would like them to publish their curve fit coefficients for each estimate... but I really can't expect them to provide everything I want for free while they still have so much more to do.  The "local data" pages are many times improved over last year and the year before.  The quarterly reports are excellent.  Many of the specific estimating errors I noted in Summer 2007 were corrected by October 2007.

Zillow serves an entirely different purpose than DataQuick, and has an entirely different revenue model.  For me, and my needs, and my desires, Zillow is much more useful to me.
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December 01 2009
Yowzer; cat, meet pigeons. 

Not to interrupt this debate but I just wanted to pop in here and remind you to please keep it civil. You're all obviously entitled to your opinions about the market, each other's points of view and even about Zillow, but personal attacks and insults will be deleted. 

And a reminder if you haven't already used our recently launched local market analytics, please check it out! Here's the data for Irvine. Knowledge is power people; you're far more likely to actually influence this debate by dropping a few well-researched stats than by calling each other names.

Thank you!

Bob; FYI you should be happy to know that Zillow's database includes the data source you consider pre-eminent. ;-)
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December 01 2009
Pasadenan stated: "No CMA will EVER hold up in court nor an IRS audit.  Realtors ® are not licensed appraisers."

I have provided numerous CMA's to courts in order to help the Judge establish a value on a property in a divorce or probate proceeding.  No, they're NOT a licensed appraisal, nor would they be presented as such.

They are, however, 100% more acceptable to a court than a "Guesstimate" from Zillow - for one primary reason.  The Realtor has actually seen the inside of the house.  Zillow will never be able to replace that dynamic. 
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December 01 2009
NTETS, your insults are unworthy of someone attempting to carry on a discussion - just as some of mine are.  Obviously, Zillow's penchant for coddling, or tolerating many of the bullying goon-like behaviors exhibited by some, perpetuates an attitude of this side vs. that side, when in fact we should all be civil, trying to foster diplomatic conversations.

I have no problem being civil and attempting to put forth a logical platform of my ideas.  That's the way things SHOULD be around here.

Unfortunately, if you go back to the beginning of this thread, and scan to the end, there are plenty of examples of goon-like behavior from the Doom & Gloom Squad. ( Klarek's yelling at someone yesterday to STFU! is a prime example.)

I, for one, am not about to be bullied or ridiculed by juveniles without issuing an appropriately assertive response.

As for Dataquick, they are probably a local source of real estate information, but they are regarded in this community as a pre-eminent source for same.

As I have stated repeatedly, real estate is local.  Zillow's innaccuracies are not just an Orange County phenomenon - their WAG's are a National occurrence.
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for frisky1
link

"That's one reason banks look to us Realtors for valuations on their forthcoming foreclosures"

That may change if this continues-- attached article from Sarasota Herald Trib about the growing practice of RE agents undervaluing short sales (for their own pocket buyers/investors) so they can flip those properties immediately for much more money to the general public.
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for Mr Caveat
i again contend that zillow's median data is highly accurate, even when individual home prices can be off by 100k or more. its about sample size.

in formal argumentation, this is called a part to whole argument, you argue that 1 data point is off therefore the whole zindex is off. that is simply not true bob. no, i would not use my zestimate as a listing price. yes, i would call someone who did foolish... still, if you know nothing about the accuracy of the chart dont try to "infer" why zillow data would be inaccurate. and dont lead others in making the same assumptions that you do.
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
No CMA will EVER hold up in court nor an IRS audit.  Realtors ® are not licensed appraisers.

And someone that doesn't understand why a Median Index is 98% accurate when an individual estimate is only +/- 15% accurate obviously doesn't understand statistics.  That is like trying to ask one or two people who they would vote for and use that to estimate the outcome of an election!  Sample size is exceptionally relevant.

But because people don't understand something, they just state that is highly flawed and shouldn't be considered.

Really, it would be worthwhile taking a statistics course, or even a physics course.

(By the way, Zillow's index is the "median" after throwing out highly inconsistent data, not the "average".  Yes, better documentation on that could be helpful.)
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for Mr Caveat
My possibly innaccurate "label" refers to a small contingent of Zillow thugs who swarm down on anyone - Realtor or ordinary people, alike - who happen to post anything positive about real estate.

because you do so in such an inaine heavy handed way, if you posted reasonable forecasts and reasonable suggestions rather than "this is the best market in 100 years, so buy buy buy" you would be received far more warmly, believe me, its been tested.

absolutely no single person in the united states, should actually believe for any reason that interest rates are the only thing that effects property values. nor 2006 prices, nor unemployment data.

you look like a jackass when you ignore everything nasty because your "veiw" is rosy... actually its worse, you look like a scumbag.

i tend to be very moderate relative to klarek and pasa, yet i too find it highly highly offensive that people like you and linda and viv post half truths and flat out lies because it might encourage other people to have a rosy outlook like yours.
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December 01 2009
Pasadenan pondered: " But those that continue to argue that Zillow's primary mission of providing data to the general public is worthless really should be questioning why they would even want their name on a site that primarily caters to the people that come to the site for the information that Zillow so painstakingly works to provide."

No one stated that Zillow's information is "worthless".  Only that it tends, on a regular basis, to be wildly innaccurate.  Plus or minus 25% is NOT an acceptable criteria for a bank making a loan, a buyer contemplating a purchase, or a homeowner contemplating a sale.

That's one reason banks look to us Realtors for valuations on their forthcoming foreclosures, and some of my clients seeking an accurate estimate - from me - in order to seek an reassessment of their tax bill.
( A service which I provide at no charge, among numerous others.)

Accuracy is important for some situations.

As for Zillow working "painstakingly" to provide accuracy, their programmers need to work a little on finding a way to be a tad more correct.
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December 01 2009
This is an interesting linky
Here's a highlight.
The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo notes demand for Orange County housing (as measured by deals put into escrow the past 30 days) as of last Wednesday is at a low last seen in March …

Bob reminds me of those girls on the Reality TV show "Million Dollar Listing", except all grown up, and more sensitive.
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for Mr Caveat
bob phillips, zillow's data trends and their zestimates are COMPLETELY distinct animals, zillow's zindexes and similar data tend to be vastly superior data tools because the data is collected faster than even NAR sourced reports, and more importantly, zillow's computer banks doesnt use median data, they actually use averages for different house types so it eliminates the volume bias that median data has. when 10 people buy a 100k home and 10 people buy a 200k home, the median is 150k. when 15 people buy a 150k home and 5 people buy a 100k home the median falls to 137k which is ridiculous, IF these homes are not all identical. comparing the ratio of high to low income buyers does not indicate any reliable trend in real estate and zillow, unlike both case shiller and other NAR median price reports, can rebuff such inconsistencies, making it the better source for this type of data.

pasa, you can comment on "dataquicks", i've never heard of them
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December 01 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
And for those that are still having difficulty comprehending the difference between a median of ONLY the properties that recently sold, as compared to ALL the properties in a given area...

All that DataQuick's increase in Median means is that more "Higher End" homes recently sold, which only means that Jumbo Loans have become more readily available, and that limits on conventional loans increased.  It tells you NOTHING  about the change in value of any group of homes, nor even the change in value of the dollar.

So, while there has been a change of what types of housing units have been placed on the market, shifting more toward the higher end, the "values" of most areas in Orange County have dropped year over year.

Yes, there was some increase since April 2009 and present in many areas, but not sufficient to account for the drop, and typically only about an $8k to $20k rise, that can entirely be attributed to the Federal Government propping up the housing prices by an $8k give-away.

Again, Zillow provides the data people are looking for, and not just info about the change in Jumbo loans.
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December 01 2009
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