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- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
As I said in another thread, historic trends and performance of US real estate bubbles and stock markets over the last 100+ years indicate otherwise.
Unlike the volatility of the stock markets where bubbles and downturns are "V" shaped, RE cycles tend to resemble "U" shaped curves.
And given the unprecedented nature of the current RE bubble, many economic forecasts are predicting we could be looking at an "L" shaped curve this time, similar to what Japan experienced in the 90s.
That said, even with the much greater volatility experienced in the stock markets, 20/20 hindsight shows us you were better off investing 9 months after the Great Depression's final rally than 3 months before.
Given the relatively stable nature of historic RE performance (when compared to the stock markets), I can see no reasonable evidence suggesting there is any real risk of missing the bottom by any significant margin.
Further, since I expect more rational levels of appreciation based on fundamentals following the bottom - which I also expect to over correct, and would be surprised if we don't see a plateau or two on the way down - I prefer to exercise discretion and risk missing the absolute bottom, than gamble on this side of the curve.
Unlike the volatility of the stock markets where bubbles and downturns are "V" shaped, RE cycles tend to resemble "U" shaped curves.
And given the unprecedented nature of the current RE bubble, many economic forecasts are predicting we could be looking at an "L" shaped curve this time, similar to what Japan experienced in the 90s.
That said, even with the much greater volatility experienced in the stock markets, 20/20 hindsight shows us you were better off investing 9 months after the Great Depression's final rally than 3 months before.
Given the relatively stable nature of historic RE performance (when compared to the stock markets), I can see no reasonable evidence suggesting there is any real risk of missing the bottom by any significant margin.
Further, since I expect more rational levels of appreciation based on fundamentals following the bottom - which I also expect to over correct, and would be surprised if we don't see a plateau or two on the way down - I prefer to exercise discretion and risk missing the absolute bottom, than gamble on this side of the curve.
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25139
"Since nobody has a crystal ball, timing when to buy a home is like trying to decide when to buy or sell a stock." You are mostly right except about the crystal ball thing. You can know when it is time to buy and time to sell a stock or a house. I like the strategy of buying low as compared to real value and selling high or holding if want. People who were bullish during the bubble or the stock market are in corner licking their wounds and talking about not timing the market. People who timed the market are grateful that they got out before the drop. Focusing on the past does nothing if you don't learn from it. You don't need to buy at the ultimate cheapest price on the bottom ever to succeed in buying a hoe for your family. You need to make sure that you research your market, make a realistic budget before you buy and seek value in your local market. Finding value doesn't require market timing just a little research, persistence and patience for the right opportunity in your market for your family. No crystal ball needed.
I think that if my 10% below current market short sale offer is approved, I am still facing significant risk that my new house will depreciate in value over the next 2 years. But, I am financially able to shoulder that risk and it is the right time to buy for me, all things considered.
- space_acer
- Contributions:4311
"Since nobody has a crystal ball, timing when to buy a home is like trying to decide when to buy or sell a stock."
Please look up financial analysis in your spare time. You know some of us actually forcast financial results for a living.
Please look up financial analysis in your spare time. You know some of us actually forcast financial results for a living.
Pamela:
"nobody has a crystal ball"- do you know how many times that tired line has been thrown out by realtors? I have some questions for you, that don't require my crystal balls:
1. How has employment/unemployment trended recently? do people without homes buy homes, or continue making payments on their current homes? how will this influence prices?
2. How does the highest number of vacant homes ever in history effect housing prices going forward?
3. How does higher than reasonable price/rent ratios effect the decision to buy? With rents dropping in most metros currently, what effect will that have on the decision in the future?
4. How does the highest rate of foreclosure activity ever bode for the future of the market? (despite so many bank/government moratoriums on foreclosures... we are still breaking records)
Anyways, as you can see, it doesn't require my crystal balls at all... but thanks for noticing. all that is really required is an IQ higher than your house pets...
"nobody has a crystal ball"- do you know how many times that tired line has been thrown out by realtors? I have some questions for you, that don't require my crystal balls:
1. How has employment/unemployment trended recently? do people without homes buy homes, or continue making payments on their current homes? how will this influence prices?
2. How does the highest number of vacant homes ever in history effect housing prices going forward?
3. How does higher than reasonable price/rent ratios effect the decision to buy? With rents dropping in most metros currently, what effect will that have on the decision in the future?
4. How does the highest rate of foreclosure activity ever bode for the future of the market? (despite so many bank/government moratoriums on foreclosures... we are still breaking records)
Anyways, as you can see, it doesn't require my crystal balls at all... but thanks for noticing. all that is really required is an IQ higher than your house pets...
ATTENTION USED HOUSE SALESMAN:
I beg you! Please retire the 'Crystal ball' line. Time to get a new buzz phrase PLEASE!!
I beg you! Please retire the 'Crystal ball' line. Time to get a new buzz phrase PLEASE!!
I've got the new line:
"you can't see your bottom because its behind you"
"you can't see your bottom because its behind you"
- Space_Truss
- Contributions:177
Sorry Pamela, but that crystal ball thing really does not make sense anymore.
Last year RE market was similar, but economy was in better shape. All RE commissioners were talking about the crystal ball. Houses lost 10 to 30% nationwide.
Now everybody agrees that we are in the deepest recession of the history, and commissioners are still talking about the crystal ball.
The ones posting here everyday got lost...
Also, please be specific. Like, buying a 100K house in zip code 11111 makes sense and it is worth taking the risk. You don't loose more than 20K. But risking your 600K for a house in zip code 55555 may cost you a 100K.
Last year RE market was similar, but economy was in better shape. All RE commissioners were talking about the crystal ball. Houses lost 10 to 30% nationwide.
Now everybody agrees that we are in the deepest recession of the history, and commissioners are still talking about the crystal ball.
The ones posting here everyday got lost...
Also, please be specific. Like, buying a 100K house in zip code 11111 makes sense and it is worth taking the risk. You don't loose more than 20K. But risking your 600K for a house in zip code 55555 may cost you a 100K.
- Robert McArtor, "AdvantageRobert"
- Contributions:89
This is why the first properties being shown and receiving contracts are REO (Real Estate Owned) Properties and Owners attempting to convince their lender to take a Short Sale. I purchased my primary residence last year from the Bank. Since then, two houses have come on the market in my neighborhood. One is listed 125,000 and the other 150,000 MORE than what I paid for mine.
I always get the question...was it a good time to buy?...It was for me and my family. Everyone needs a place to live....period. If you are looking to buy a home, you simply have to be smart about where and what you are buying. Shop around, ask questions, look at the market trends in that particular area, subdivision, etc.
When you are looking for buy a Bank Owned property, work with an agent that is experienced in this type of transaction. I was able to negotiate ALL closing costs to be paid on top of a huge price reduction.
If you want to stare at the Foxbusiness reports all day and wait for the up-turn....you will miss this opportunity.
Your thoughts?
I always get the question...was it a good time to buy?...It was for me and my family. Everyone needs a place to live....period. If you are looking to buy a home, you simply have to be smart about where and what you are buying. Shop around, ask questions, look at the market trends in that particular area, subdivision, etc.
When you are looking for buy a Bank Owned property, work with an agent that is experienced in this type of transaction. I was able to negotiate ALL closing costs to be paid on top of a huge price reduction.
If you want to stare at the Foxbusiness reports all day and wait for the up-turn....you will miss this opportunity.
Your thoughts?
- Bette Defarm
- Contributions:4697
If you want to stare at the Foxbusiness reports all day and wait for the up-turn....you will miss this opportunity.
Ok, it wasn't the 'crystal ball' line, it was worse... The "miss this opportunity" is the new version of "Buy now or be priced out forever." Using fear tactics on a NAR weary public is just bad business, yet I see this from the marjority of agents. Don't you people read what the hundreds of other agent's are saying or even the thread you're posting in?
Ok, it wasn't the 'crystal ball' line, it was worse... The "miss this opportunity" is the new version of "Buy now or be priced out forever." Using fear tactics on a NAR weary public is just bad business, yet I see this from the marjority of agents. Don't you people read what the hundreds of other agent's are saying or even the thread you're posting in?
- Robert McArtor, "AdvantageRobert"
- Contributions:89
?? - No fear tactics here Bette, just simply working hard for my clients and customers, providing the best possible service using the knowledge of today's marketplace. As a REALTOR, I have the stats to back up the information I provide to my Sellers and Buyers. If my information tells me that the trend is towards REO properties that are 20 to 50% of the current FMV in the area of town they are looking to buy in, that is what I share with my buyers. I am still looking for the thread that says, "Buy now or be priced out forever..". Very tacky. Their are benefits of buying and selling regardless of the trend in the market. Different strategies are used to make it the best possible deal for a Buyer and to obtain the greatest out-come possible for a Seller. We handle the transactions, we don't set the trends, the market does that.
- Bette Defarm
- Contributions:4697
No fear tactics here Bette
Saying "You will miss this opportunity" is perceived by many to be a fear-based tactic, whether you want to accept that is clearly up to you.
I am still looking for the thread that says, "Buy now or be priced out forever..".
That or some variant was expressed so often here I have to wonder if you are joking.
Saying "You will miss this opportunity" is perceived by many to be a fear-based tactic, whether you want to accept that is clearly up to you.
I am still looking for the thread that says, "Buy now or be priced out forever..".
That or some variant was expressed so often here I have to wonder if you are joking.
- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
" I purchased my primary residence last year from the Bank. Since then, two houses have come on the market in my neighborhood. One is listed 125,000 and the other 150,000 MORE than what I paid for mine. "
Just cause a home is LISTED at a particular price doesn't mean it will sell at that price, and me thinks those homes will sit there and chase the market (down). I understand trying to justify your buy and using this as an example for others to buy and I am certain you have used it in your pitches to clients. I could just hear it " I bought and that shows you how confidant I am in this market and I really feel that if you don't act fast you will miss this opportunity." Curious Robert: if you were to show a buyer one of those overpriced listings would you recommend them negotiating a lower price, steer them clear cause the price is in the sky-not worth their time, or would feel that higher price is justified and implore them to put in an offer for full listing for fear they would loose the house to another contract coming in any moment now..... even though your personal comp shows otherwise???
Just cause a home is LISTED at a particular price doesn't mean it will sell at that price, and me thinks those homes will sit there and chase the market (down). I understand trying to justify your buy and using this as an example for others to buy and I am certain you have used it in your pitches to clients. I could just hear it " I bought and that shows you how confidant I am in this market and I really feel that if you don't act fast you will miss this opportunity." Curious Robert: if you were to show a buyer one of those overpriced listings would you recommend them negotiating a lower price, steer them clear cause the price is in the sky-not worth their time, or would feel that higher price is justified and implore them to put in an offer for full listing for fear they would loose the house to another contract coming in any moment now..... even though your personal comp shows otherwise???
- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
If those listings aren't distressed listings then perhaps the seller needs that price to walk away from the sale without short selling or paying money to the bank? Right now in my area any home listd over market is a regular sale and more often than not is tied directly to what they paid for the home only 1-2 years prior even though comps all around show the price is not justified.
- Robert McArtor, "AdvantageRobert"
- Contributions:89
Pamela Mones stated...."you may find yourself waiting too long and see yourself in the rearview mirror wondering how you missed the deal."
She could not be more correct!
Within the past 180 days, 33 REO Properties have SOLD and currently 13 are under contract. Buyers are looking for deals....period.
I think Orison Swett Marden said it well...."Don't wait for extraordinary opportunities. Seize common occasions and make them great. Weak men wait for opportunities; strong men make them."
robert/pamela: other realtors with similar lack of education about finance/economics etc. have been saying the same things all the time.
seriously? Here is your chance! Either post, "yes I am stupid, I spew NAR garbage without thought" or Here are the answers...
1. can you name any asset class bubble, that suddenly turned around and went up after the crash? (florida real estate in the 20's, nifty fifty stocks in the 20's, Japanese land in the 80's, japanese stocks, tech stocks, arabian horses, south sea trading company, arabian horses, tulip bulbs, ???) ALL of these crashed, only to flatten out for decades in price.
If you are going to say, "you will miss the bottom" the burden is on YOU to show why housing will behave different this time, then every other asset class price crash.
2. How will the mounting job losses affect the market going forward? do people without jobs buy homes, continue paying for homes?
3. How will the largest number of unoccupied residential units ever in history affect the market?
4. How will rental vacancies increasing, dropping rental rates affect the already high price/rent ratios in many metropolitan areas?
We are seriously tired on here... support your opinions.
seriously? Here is your chance! Either post, "yes I am stupid, I spew NAR garbage without thought" or Here are the answers...
1. can you name any asset class bubble, that suddenly turned around and went up after the crash? (florida real estate in the 20's, nifty fifty stocks in the 20's, Japanese land in the 80's, japanese stocks, tech stocks, arabian horses, south sea trading company, arabian horses, tulip bulbs, ???) ALL of these crashed, only to flatten out for decades in price.
If you are going to say, "you will miss the bottom" the burden is on YOU to show why housing will behave different this time, then every other asset class price crash.
2. How will the mounting job losses affect the market going forward? do people without jobs buy homes, continue paying for homes?
3. How will the largest number of unoccupied residential units ever in history affect the market?
4. How will rental vacancies increasing, dropping rental rates affect the already high price/rent ratios in many metropolitan areas?
We are seriously tired on here... support your opinions.
- gasgiant
- Contributions:1
I think all of you are profitlessly ganging up on Mr. McArtor (whom I do not know) with ad hominem attacks, speculative assertions, and remarks that reflect your bitterness about the current business cycle.McArtor is obviously a real estate professional, and as a former mortgage professional, I can tell you that he is dispensing sound advice. There's no question that real estate can, unfortunately, become personal because we're dealing with people's homes. This is not a reason, however, for people to berate him or anyone else doing real estate professionally because he uses a turn of phrase you find objectionable.
Right now, it's a buyer's market, and that means that sellers have to decide, rationally and reasonably, if they want to wait months or even years for a higher price, or settle in the interim for something lower. If sellers own their home outright, it's not unreasonable for them to say to themselves, "Let's wait, and in 2-4 years the house will appreciate back to something like a fundamental value.
Right now, it's a buyer's market, and that means that sellers have to decide, rationally and reasonably, if they want to wait months or even years for a higher price, or settle in the interim for something lower. If sellers own their home outright, it's not unreasonable for them to say to themselves, "Let's wait, and in 2-4 years the house will appreciate back to something like a fundamental value.
um yeah... form another account and back yourself from it... hard to see that!!!
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4396
[content removed by moderator for being off-topic]
- Vito Simone, "203kConsultant"
- Contributions:115
The answer to buying now or waiting is the same as it has been forever - or at least for the past 21 years since I started helping people buy homes.
If you do not own a home, then you buy whatever you can afford to buy RIGHT NOW... period. As long as you buy what you can afford and don't get caught up in the "timing" of the market, you can enjoy real estate's value over time.
If you already own, then you have to figure out what you can afford to buy TODAY based on a REALISTIC selling price of the property you own.
Either way, Buy Today, but buy with your head NOT with your crytal ball or rose colored glasses.
If you do not own a home, then you buy whatever you can afford to buy RIGHT NOW... period. As long as you buy what you can afford and don't get caught up in the "timing" of the market, you can enjoy real estate's value over time.
If you already own, then you have to figure out what you can afford to buy TODAY based on a REALISTIC selling price of the property you own.
Either way, Buy Today, but buy with your head NOT with your crytal ball or rose colored glasses.
- Vito Simone, "203kConsultant"
- Contributions:115
The answer to buying now or waiting is the same as it has been forever - or at least for the past 21 years since I started helping people buy homes.<BR><BR>If you do not own a home, then you buy whatever you can afford to buy RIGHT NOW... period. As long as you buy what you can afford and don't get caught up in the "timing" of the market, you can enjoy real estate's value over time.<BR><BR>If you already own, then you have to figure out what you can afford to buy TODAY based on a REALISTIC selling price of the property you own.<BR><BR>Either way, Buy Today, but buy with your head NOT with your crytal ball or rose colored glasses.
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25139
"If you do not own a home, then you buy whatever you can afford to buy RIGHT NOW... " How did that work for people who bough in 2005 in your area? Are they enjoying their underwater homes now? I think this is a very broad and potentially misleading statement. It concerns me.
- interested_observer
- Contributions:517
"The answer to buying now or waiting is the same as it has been forever - or at least for the past 21 years since I started helping people buy homes.
If you do not own a home, then you buy whatever you can afford to buy RIGHT NOW... period. As long as you buy what you can afford and don't get caught up in the "timing" of the market, you can enjoy real estate's value over time."
So you're trying to convince me that it was a good idea to buy a home two years ago for twice what you would pay for the same house today? Regardless of whether or not you can afford something, it never makes sense to buy if prices will be significantly lower in the near future, especially with something as expensive as a house.
If you do not own a home, then you buy whatever you can afford to buy RIGHT NOW... period. As long as you buy what you can afford and don't get caught up in the "timing" of the market, you can enjoy real estate's value over time."
So you're trying to convince me that it was a good idea to buy a home two years ago for twice what you would pay for the same house today? Regardless of whether or not you can afford something, it never makes sense to buy if prices will be significantly lower in the near future, especially with something as expensive as a house.
*bzzzzzzzzt*
buy RIGHT NOW... period.
*whrrrrrrrrrrr*
buy today... with your head
*clack clack clack*
buy buy buy
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
"If you do not own a home, then you buy whatever you can afford to buy RIGHT NOW... period."
I have a friend that bought into that exact advice a year and a half ago. He's pretty pissed at himself for believing that.
I have a friend that bought into that exact advice a year and a half ago. He's pretty pissed at himself for believing that.
- chuckdog24
- Contributions:1520
Yikes, It looks more like a "House of Cards" to quote the CNBC special that re-aired last night.
Are most agents expecting that buyers have no ability to research their markets themselves?
Long term Inflation vs. Housing price graph
Case Shiller City Index - Shows recent trends
Are most agents expecting that buyers have no ability to research their markets themselves?
Long term Inflation vs. Housing price graph
Case Shiller City Index - Shows recent trends
''Weak men wait for opportunities; strong men make them."''
How DARE you call us weak. STRONG men make good decisions for their families. Such as waiting for more stability that will not put the family in a negative equity situation near down the road.
How DARE you call us weak. STRONG men make good decisions for their families. Such as waiting for more stability that will not put the family in a negative equity situation near down the road.
- chuckdog24
- Contributions:1520
More sage advice from Robert
You feel like you're stuck in the renter's rut with no way of rising up out of it and owning your own home.
You feel like you're stuck in the renter's rut with no way of rising up out of it and owning your own home.
Well don't feel trapped any more! A new FREE Special Report entitled "How To Stop Paying Rent and Own Your Own Home" has already helped dozens of local renters get out from under their landlord's finger, and move into a wonderful home they can truly call their own. You can make this move too by discovering the important steps detailed in this FREE Special Report.
Is it me or are there more snake oil salesmen than ever out there?
What troubles me more as a 12 year Army vet is that this guy "serves" servicemen by drawing them into home buying during their short service time in the area.
Churning homes in a 3~4 year time period is a recipe for wealth reduction, not creation. And with a market like this bubble market, it's shameful to see such sales pitches unregulated.
- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
Oh Vito......that is just the saddest post evah.
I agree with Klarek.....but more importantly if I buy what I can afford today I will live in a crap shack compared to my nice rental.........and then next year I can afford to buy a nicer home han what I rent cause I would have waited while prices are dropping like rocks. I am sure my friend who paid $847K for a home that had been purchased new in 2005 for $1.2 million isn't upset that she waited cause she couldn't afford the 1.2 then or now, but she can afford the $847.
I agree with Klarek.....but more importantly if I buy what I can afford today I will live in a crap shack compared to my nice rental.........and then next year I can afford to buy a nicer home han what I rent cause I would have waited while prices are dropping like rocks. I am sure my friend who paid $847K for a home that had been purchased new in 2005 for $1.2 million isn't upset that she waited cause she couldn't afford the 1.2 then or now, but she can afford the $847.
- interested_observer
- Contributions:517
"you may find yourself waiting too long and see yourself in the rearview mirror wondering how you missed the deal."
"If you want to stare at the Foxbusiness reports all day and wait for the up-turn....you will miss this opportunity."
Since the main thrust of the current Realtor/NAR propaganda campaign seems to be the "limited time offer" approach, at some point in the future will you let us know that we've missed out on the limited window of opportunity and it's no longer a good time to buy? I'm pretty sure that will never happen and according to Realtors and the NAR there will always be multiple reasons why it's great time to buy.
If it's always a great time to buy a house, why should potential buyers be worried that they'll "miss this opportunity"?
"If you want to stare at the Foxbusiness reports all day and wait for the up-turn....you will miss this opportunity."
Since the main thrust of the current Realtor/NAR propaganda campaign seems to be the "limited time offer" approach, at some point in the future will you let us know that we've missed out on the limited window of opportunity and it's no longer a good time to buy? I'm pretty sure that will never happen and according to Realtors and the NAR there will always be multiple reasons why it's great time to buy.
If it's always a great time to buy a house, why should potential buyers be worried that they'll "miss this opportunity"?
Should you wait to buy a home?
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- 0.0/5.0
- (no reviews)
Contributions:25Not so today. Just about everybody seems to be holding back, and nobody moreso than home buyers hoping to find a bargain, or at least not pay 'more' for a home than it might be worth next week.
With the confluence of factors currently in the real estate marketplace, you may find yourself waiting too long and see yourself in the rearview mirror wondering how you missed the deal.
What do you think? Ciao and good luck Pamela
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