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Replies (12)
- 2 Big 2 Fail
- Contributions:0
The bubble hit in 2003, not 2001.
- Terri Linnell, "DebtsNMesses"
- Contributions:6728
- Bitter Renter Ron
- Contributions:1402
Did he just admit there was a bubble?
- Terri Linnell, "DebtsNMesses"
- Contributions:6728
roflmao! OMG, Ron! YOU ARE SO RIGHT!
- Bette Defarm
- Contributions:4697
Holy crap, world peace is next...
- 2 Big 2 Fail
- Contributions:0
I put my lower Manhattan apartment on the market in 2001 and did not sell until 2003. During the 2 years, I got NO OFFERS as did most people. Trust me, there was no bubble in 2001. If there was, where were the multiple offers? Where were any offers?
Just because something is on the internet does not mean it's true.
Just because something is on the internet does not mean it's true.
- Terri Linnell, "DebtsNMesses"
- Contributions:6728
Alpine, there was no bubble for YOUR area maybe, but NOT for mine or many other areas.
- farmd0g
- Contributions:702
Alpine sometimes dips a toe into the dark side. Adds a bit of spice, I understand.
A bit like the young European nobles during the plague years who used to drink and duel each other in commoner pubs.
A bit like the young European nobles during the plague years who used to drink and duel each other in commoner pubs.
- John MacArthur, "jmac"
- Contributions:13
There is not one bubble. The real estate market bubble sounds like a large boil when in reality it was more like a sporadic acne outbreak. Your personal market just feels like that prom night pimple that showed up when your date was at the door.
- CORONA NICK
- Contributions:2218
He sure did...
- 2 Big 2 Fail
- Contributions:0
ALso, I was selling an aparment in lower Manhattan a few weeks after 9/11, so you do the math. A bubble in Manhattan right after 9/11? Now that makes no sense!
- Terri Linnell, "DebtsNMesses"
- Contributions:6728
Well Alpine, then thank 9/11 for slowing the entry of the boom. Every time we have a fire here (and I mean a BIG fire that looses over 2,000 homes, and destroys over 150,000 acres), there is so much fed money pouring from the sky, our prices go UP!
Back to the topic at hand. Remember, the target fall is from peak, if your area didn't peak as high, it's unrealistic to think it will tank as hard.
Back to the topic at hand. Remember, the target fall is from peak, if your area didn't peak as high, it's unrealistic to think it will tank as hard.
Some Misconceptions about the Process
The 50% that everyone is talking about is 50% from market peak. BUT IF YOUR MARKET DID NOT DOUBLE... it's not realistic to see a 50% drop!
So how do you time it? I think an earlier thread said it nicely. 2001. That's when the bubble hit.
Does that mean that you aren't risking anything, that you've hit the bottom? NO. The bottom for my area is somewhere around 40-65% from PEAK. Why am I buying? Because I'm targeting 2001 prices, around 45% drop from peak. Will it drop more? Yes. Are rents rising? Yes, that's another reason i'm buying.
Should others follow suit? NO. Examine YOUR market. Since my area is one of the first areas to deflate, THEN most of the rest of the nation decided to follow, I am about 1 full year ahead of other areas on the slide.
Use socal to show direction of your market, not degree.
Appraisals are handy tools, but still only a tool. They do not reflect real price, because they use homes purchased w/in the last 6 mos... and 6 mos ago it was a diff market. So why did I say don't bid above appraisal? Because the banks won't loan above it, therefore, very few qualified buyers CAN go above it. So why should you do it? Well, you shouldn't.
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