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The Bottom is here, it's official

Profile picture for bakammer
Doomers, Shiller is uncrossing his arms and reaching for his chearleaders outfit. He hasn't picked up the pom pom's yet but statements like: "My guess would be that home prices are going to level off -- they're not going to keep falling,"  Shows he has at least shaved his legs in preparation for putting on the outfit.

http://bloomberg.com/apps ... Y13VdQtLk

Doomers, now is the time to move out of your basement apartment and into the light. Big Daddy Obama will give you $8000 cash to buy. You can still get a 5% rate with any luck. Please do not give me the rent vs. buy lemming mantra about how much you save every year by renting, and how shrewdly you invest your savings for retirement. We all know you spend every nickel you save on Captain Crunch, comic books and pornograpghy.

Open your eyes and see the light, buy now and in 30 years you'll be able to sell your house and retire down south, pay cash for a cabin on the lake and use the rest to suplement a golden retirement. Or, continue to rent, beg your landlord to replace the urine stained carpets from when your dog had an intestinal problem. In 30 years you'll still be renting until arthritis forms your hands into claws, forcing you to quit your job. You'll be forced to live in a state funded senior home where the orderlies beat you when no one's looking and the stronger patients steal your tapiocca pudding.

I say buy now, the bottom is here, Shiller is signing the decree, he was the smart one of Case Shiller anyway, Case is a retard. So it is written, so it will be done.
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July 02 - US

Replies (61)

Profile picture for silent_observer
:-)
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July 02
Profile picture for BMFPitt
Contributions: 1122
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Please do not give me the rent vs. buy lemming mantra about how much you save every year by renting, and how shrewdly you invest your savings for retirement. We all know you spend every nickel you save on Captain Crunch, comic books and pornograpghy.

So you're saying that someone who spends all their money on cereal, comics and pron should go out and get a mortgage?  That sounds like excellent financial advice and leads me to believe that you must be a reputable expert on these matters.

Or, continue to rent, beg your landlord to replace the urine stained carpets from when your dog had an intestinal problem.

So who replaces those carpets if you own?  Would most landlords object to you paying for it yourself?

In 30 years you'll still be renting until arthritis forms your hands into claws, forcing you to quit your job. You'll be forced to live in a state funded senior home where the orderlies beat you when no one's looking and the stronger patients steal your tapiocca pudding.

Obviously the best way to avoid this fate is to overpay for real estate.

I say buy now, the bottom is here, Shiller is signing the decree

No he's not.  He's just saying it's in sight.  And even that depends on where you are.
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July 02
Profile picture for nvchaz
Contributions: 1617
Tee-hee! Classic post! I'm gonna print this out a post it on the office wall of my new home that I bought at 60% off its high.

Anyone seen the Splooge lately?
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July 02
Profile picture for silent_observer
Randy sold in 2005-2006 & bought in mid-2009! wow this the best timing of the market I have seen so far. "Sell at the peak and buy at or near the bottom?"
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July 02
Profile picture for silent_observer
Here is how mine looks after my purchase last year...
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July 02
Profile picture for SoCal BubbleBrain
Hey that is the same thing you posted last October ..

http://www.zillow.com/advice-thread/Housing-bottom-is-here-here's-why/44841/


You must be in some serious negative equity or debt situation wishing for bubble v2.0. And stop confusing realists with doomers. No disrespect but you are one fvcking a$$hole. 
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July 02
Profile picture for bakammer
Loosen up skippy, you still have Case in your camp.
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July 02
Profile picture for SoCal BubbleBrain
LOL. Now be honest, is that what you are hoping for? Another bubble or should I say 'house ATM? HMMMM??
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July 02
Profile picture for bakammer
Bubblebrain, don't fight it, head to the light, all are welcome. I like rolllercoasters too, eventually the ride ends and its time time to get off. It was fun though wasn't it? The crazy rise and inevitable free-fall was something to see. Time to get off the ride, pull the steaks and head out my friend, even the head carnival barker Robert Shiller says it's time to call it a day.

I know it's hard, you were so close, even you on a carnies income could have afforded a home if the prices fell much further. Keep your chin up and don't go away mad, just go away.
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July 02
Profile picture for nvchaz
Contributions: 1617
Classic, bakammer.

Now's it is reality time for the Splooge, SoCal Bubble Monster, Space Case and all their other psychophants. Randy_H Bomb and K101 Jelly have already left the gang -- while the Splooge was wankin' and encouraging others to wank as well, they actually made some smart choices.

Feeling lonely, gangsters of doom?

Anyone seen the Splooge lately? Come out, come out wherever you are!
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July 02
Profile picture for space_acer
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You disappoint me NV... didnt I say prices were going to fall pre 1998 adjusted for inflation?  Did not Randy buy at 1996 adjusted for inflation.  When you gonna give me credit, bubba ?

Not a doomer, Im a realist... and reality is feeling pretty good ! 

How is your crystal ball ?  still cracked ?




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July 02
Profile picture for Caveat Emptor
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just because they bought a house doesnt mean they are out of the gang... unless you know what you are doing you should wait for a better market. the people who you mentioned, bought with huge cash positions which give them the flexibility to worry less about market timing... people who are leveraged 30 to 1 should be VERY VERY wary about buying on the down slope... 2010, 2011 will probably see 5% drops each... even that is a lot of equity for most people and people like randy will be in a better position than most of the people coming to the boards for advice. waiting is sensible, but taking risks is okay if and only if you know what you are into. in the mean time...wait

you can always wait
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July 02
Profile picture for nvchaz
Contributions: 1617
Actually,

I think my predictions are fairly solid. If you make a compendium of my prattlings from March on, (I was fairly new at the research in Jan and Feb. and I made some stupid predictions), I think you will find I am right on target.

October will be the big month as usual. The market and economy will slide into a depression greater than the great one. It will be until 2012 that housing bottoms. I have said this all along.

So why have I advocated buying now? In unique circumstances and markets, there was a small window of opportunity based on supply, incentives and interest rates. This window is closing very rapidly. For the low-income. low-end buyer, such as myself, this combination of factors will not be replicated for many years, perhaps decades, if at all.

I am very happy to have acted on my perceptions and purchased a home that closed last Friday. It is a modest home and I am not a speculator. I think the powers that be never have the interests of the lower-middle class at heart -- that constituency cannot bring significant money interests to bear in the political machine.

With nearly a trillion of foreclosed homes pending, there will not be a garage sale on REOs thus benefitting the poor and lower-middle class. There will be, predictably, a government move to tighten supply to benefit the fat-cats.

We can count on the government to be inefficient and they are now just putting the programs together to effectively "nationalize" the low-end market. The only way the market can properly bottom is for the government or some quasi-government entity to absorb the toxins and the excess capacity.

I got my piece, hope you get yours.
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July 02
Profile picture for azrob
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Some people have found homes at prices/rates compared to rent that make sense. I'll give credit to Randy, and nvspaz,  k101 etc. for that. I saw a couple of homes pop up on my searches today that made me think "hold on now...what about this?"...

Now, my situation is a bit different: I live in a nice home I own, if I buy another, I'm going to have to fight the worst rental market I've ever seen on this home for several years. Continued job losses etc tell me for sure that it ain't getting any better for quite some time.

But I want to reiterate this point: MOST people don't have a clue; they are buying hastily, and patience could have put them in a better part of town, or a nice home in another year or so...
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July 02
Profile picture for silent_observer
Eventhough prices seem to be stabilized I am suddenly seeing a new wave of foreclosures hitting my neighborhood. In our neighborhood we had only one foreclosure so far of the 150+ properties and now I see 2 or 3 popping up. I live in one of the affluent neighborhoods in the bay-area.

See this story on LA Times / CR: "Another Wave of foreclosures"

This $hit is not over yet..
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July 04
Profile picture for White Picture
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Every things said in the article was "I think" or "I guess", there is definite no data support for their comments.
"John Wayne, left, owner of California Realty in Victorville, is helped by an employee as he hangs a sign advertising for future business after California imposed a statewide 90-day moratorium on housing foreclosures."
Without of California imposed a statewide 90-day moratorium (just few weeks ago), there was shortage of foreclosure houses in So. California's metro area. If the article's speculation is true, then the next foreclosure houses will release at earthly next year (if any).
there was more making sense of Azrob's posts or space_acer's posts then that article to me.
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July 04
Profile picture for jimmy57
Contributions: 1470
These days Shiller doesn't make an appearance without touting MacroShares "Housing Up" and "Housing Down"  ETFs.  I no longer trust what he has to say on the subject. It's no surprise to me that he's become more ambiguous in his opinions -- he's invested in the gambling venue now. He wants players, and he's happy whether they bet red or bet black.

But on the ground here in the nicer exburbs of Sacramento, house prices are still falling, the pace of NODs is picking up and hitting higher-end properties.  Everyone knows someone who has lost a job, and people who still have jobs are being careful with their money.

It's true that I now sometimes see listings that for sq.ft., acreage, and price that fit the parameters that I set 2+ years ago.  But I've adjusted my target, because it seems clear that these valuations cannot hold.  And frankly, I feel I need to be more careful in this new economy, because my income -- and my retirement funding --is now more at risk.
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July 04
Profile picture for jkonstant
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So the rate of decline has dropped. So has the rate of lost jobs. A decline is still a decline. I don't understand how things not getting worse as fast is good news.
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July 05
Profile picture for Randy_H
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DMM / UMM won't be very successful.  They aren't really appropriate for what most of us would wish to use them for.  There are good articles on seekingalpha.com about the pros and cons with those Macros.

As to which clubs I've joined or left:  I cannot quit because I never belonged to any club which would have me as a member.
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July 05
Profile picture for L Strasberg
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I recently looked at some rental units and prices in Seven Hills  Seven Hills Rental Rates

Then I looked at a 2 bed condo available in Seven Hills to own for much less per month 2 bed condo on Seven Hills Drive Only $89K

When it's cheaper to own vs renting it's time to buy!  Are you fishing for a deal?
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July 05
Profile picture for Randy_H
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It's been cheaper to buy than to rent for over 2 years for me.  That is *not* the sole determination of whether or not it's a good idea to buy.  It's the easiest to calculate, and thus, the easiest for realtors to mentally grasp.

Unfortunately, the most important determination is the *true value-based price* of the house.  Who cares if renting is 2x or even 3x more expensive on a monthly basis if the house you're buying is doomed to lose half or more of its value?  You see, in the end you still will come out way ahead renting for a while and then buying the same or a similar house for a lower purchase price.  Your interest payments will be lower.  Your property taxes will be lower.  Your equity position will be higher.  etc.

It took us those two years of daily vigilance to finally find a deal that met those conditions.
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July 06
Profile picture for silent_observer
absolutely randy. rental markets are not capturing the value of the home very well but the gap between *good homes* and *bad homes* is getting bigger now. for example, condo vs SFR (in price per sq. ft is different), older condo vs new condo is different, nice looking neighborhood vs shady neighborhood is priced differently eventhough both are in same school district, same zipcode etc., so Linda, all the old school rules of location, location,... crap is playing out in the price and homes with *desired location* are not priced well yet when you compare with renting them + property tax, dues, maintenance etc.,
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July 06
Profile picture for Pasadenan
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In response to the original poster, is it "official" that the "Bell Bottom" jean is "here" and available at the "Gap"?

Or are we talking about someone else's "bottom"?


If you are talking about home prices in this area, they are still rapidly dropping, and will continue to do so for quite some time.
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July 06
Profile picture for klarek the realist
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Let's see here:
-Forclosure moratoriums?  Check.
-$8000 buyers bribe?  Check.
-Stupidly low interest rates?  Check.
-Banks controlling the amount of inventory on the market?  Check.

Those are four (obvious) factors that are manipulating the market.  I've noticed substantial increases in the market prices in the northern VA area and it didn't shock me.  Not.  One.  Bit. 
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July 06
Profile picture for klarek the realist
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Linda, I don't care if it's cheaper to buy than rent (even though it's still not in my area.... rents keep dropping).  I don't want my property to drop 25% in value over the next few years. 
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July 06
Profile picture for silent_observer
Here is a new / updated report from T2 which was discussed here in detail before. Read and enjoy.

We have another 15-20% correction that needs to happen before stability so don't hurry and buy now!
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July 06
Profile picture for lrryjrry
here is another analyst, long way to go: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aWJ1aTFKp35E

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July 06
Profile picture for lrryjrry
I have no idea why we have so low inventory, people buying much less homes on first and second quater on this year compare to last 10 year's first and second quaters.

The banks are just not releasing their huge foreclosed inventory yet.. anyone know why?
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July 06
Profile picture for silent_observer
Manipulation.
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July 06
Profile picture for lrryjrry
I have done a lot of research on the market. I am seeing just a very small increase in sales, and the banks are really holding a lot of inventory and only foreclosed 1/4 compare to 2008, but default notices surge to the highest level.
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July 06

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