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"The Housing Market is Nowhere Near Bottom"

Profile picture for Spleng
Contributions: 4633

"Let's start with supply. First, there are a ton of existing homes on the market -- right around 4 million (charts are from Calculated Risk)."

"And this is before we get into the issue of foreclosures."

"This translates into a little under a 10 months supply. Also note that this number -- months of supply -- has been increasing."

"So -- we have a ton of supply on the market. Unfortunately that has not translated into a big enough cut in prices to stimulate demand. Here is a chart of the Case Shiller home price index."

"Notice that prices increased about 90% in 6 years, yet have barely dropped in comparison to the massive run-up they had during the early 2000s. Simply put, we have a long way to go before we start seeing prices hit an inventory clearing level."

"And who's going to buy these houses?"

"Job growth has been dropping, which is leading to"

"Dropping income, and"

"Dropping consumption. In addition, it's not like Americans can take on much more debt."

"The basic economic facts are very straightforward: inventory is really high and demand is dropping. That means we can expect more price drops for the foreseeable future."

 

The Housing Market is Nowhere Near Bottom
(each statement above accompanied by chart, nice succinct presentation)

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April 28 2008 - US

Replies (98)

Profile picture for JimSulli456
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 2863

I'm waiting to see what kind of "election year pranks" are pulled.  They will be coming soon.

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6654
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Since September 2009

The real fun will be when the candidates start making pledges to help property values rise.  That'll be a hoot.

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for JimSulli456
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 2863

Scares me a little.

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for Spleng
Contributions: 4633

"They will be coming soon."

 

Not a rollicking good time, but very informative documentary re: "electronic" voting machines.

 

Hacking Democracy

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for JimSulli456
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 2863

Interesting stuff

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for JimSulli456
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 2863

You know what I find a little weird though...it's an election year, and gas is through the roof.  Isn't that one thing that normally is down in an election year.

 

Are the gas companies, and the governments on the outs?

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for Spleng
Contributions: 4633

"Are the gas companies, and the governments on the outs?"

 

I wouldn't think so with our oil men in charge of both.

 

The laws of nature though trump all.

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for JimSulli456
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 2863

Hmmm.

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for plarusa
Contributions: 861

The Housing Market is Nowhere Near Bottom...

 

Your begin one of these just about every day, don't you?

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for Spleng
Contributions: 4633


"Your begin one of these just about every day, don't you?"

 

Lately I've been inspired by the hate-tard to post more then once a day. =)



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April 28 2008
Profile picture for space_acer
Contributions: 4346
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Since March 2009

"The real fun will be when the candidates start making pledges to help property values rise."

 

I will expect that from the Demo'a more than the Republicans...I expect McCain to be more

realistic and tell it like it is!  It may not be pretty but he may be more honest about it...  so

no pledges there...

On the other side... "Evita the Ice Princess" will say anything to get elected, and tax the crap

out of everyone.. but many more people will ask.. "What planet does does she live on?' than

ask for a pledge to help property values rise..

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for Spleng
Contributions: 4633

1. Home Prices Should Fall
2. Some Borrowers Should Be Renters
3. There Should Be Consequences

 

Three Reasons Why a Mortgage Bailout Is a Terrible Idea

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for John McCain

f u c k you spleng.  Too bad there WILL be a bailout since nobdoy gives a sh!t abotu what you think

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for Waiting4Ever
Contributions: 683

no need for a bail out

the market will fix itself

and bush said he would give it the veto

 

anyways

 

good luck

 

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for guavaboy

Who will buy?

 

If you live in a desirable area, foreigners.  Already started.

Next, investors.

Last, future homeowners.

 

No need for bailout.  Market will correct as it always has. 

 

Only fools think markets move only in one direction.

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April 28 2008
Profile picture for basbh
Contributions: 148

I'm amazed at how many user names Alpine has, Goes to show he/she has an identity crisis on his/her hands.

 

Anyway, yes, 2008 will be even worse than 2007. This shouldn't come as a surprise to all except for the most dimwitted individuals.

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April 29 2008
Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6654
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Since September 2009

Wow, guava, I'm impressed.  You actually do get it.

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April 29 2008
Profile picture for guavaboy

Wow, klarek.  I'm surprised you get it.

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April 29 2008
Profile picture for SoCal BubbleBrain

good guava. All you needed was a hug.

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April 29 2008
Profile picture for guavaboy

See... no need for bashing here guys.  We are all adults here, I think?  So can we all agree that housing is a good long term investment vs renting?   And that there are good deals out there if you look for them?  C'mon, the light side is much better than the dark side.  Join me!

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April 29 2008
Profile picture for SoCal BubbleBrain

The mistake made by many 'cheerleaders' is assuming all posting against buying when fundamentals are out of line, especially in severely declining markets, is.. wea re all bitter renters that will never buy (or afford to buy as you may think). Many here *are* going to buy but when they feel the time is right in their markets. I agree, housing is a good long term investment, I would not hold the mortgage to 2 if I thought otherwise. But in *certain* areas, buying *now* is a losing proposition. That's all.

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April 29 2008
Profile picture for guavaboy

Wow! Socal.   Welcome to the light side.  We are both in total agreement.  "Certain" areas are very bad to buy in now.  Each buyer must do his or her due deligence.  But the flip side is that the are "certain" areas that are good to buy in as well.  That's all I'm saying.

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April 29 2008
Profile picture for JimSulli456
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 2863

Just like there are "some" cheerleaders that put on the blinders, there are "some" doomers that do the same.  I can think of one off the top of my head that posts everytime about how the decision to buy was a bad choice.

 

It has to be an informed decision...and the information should be on your market, how long you will be there, price compared to comps...and so on.

 

I would say that the cheerleaders need to understand the concept that in many cases, it's smart to rent...and the some doomers need to realize that in some cases, it's smart to buy.

 

Then we can all get along and gang up on the trolls, and the drive-by posters.

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April 29 2008
Profile picture for guavaboy

JimSulli that was the most fair and balanced, intelligent post I've read on the boards.

 

Thank you.  Very refreshing.

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April 29 2008
Profile picture for Spleng
Contributions: 4633


 "I would say that the cheerleaders need to understand the concept that in many cases, it's smart to rent..."

 

Like now.

 

"...and the some doomers need to realize that in some cases, it's smart to buy."

 

In a few years.

 

 



 

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April 29 2008
Profile picture for kresge
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 1

Spleng,

 

You make some very interesting, and often valid, claims. However, how do you account for the fact that in many areas of the country the real estate market, though soft compared to recent boom years, is rather healthy? Further, I find it fascinating that the local papers where I live cite numerous, and accurate, statistics showing a worsening market "nationally", but fail to point out that, at least locally, the numbers aren't nearly as dire.

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April 30 2008
Profile picture for weeber

SPLENG

I bet was easier when you were posting as ALDREATH, instead of looking up all of these discussions, you only needed to flash a graph or chart.

LOL

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April 30 2008
Profile picture for azrob
Real Estate Agent

View my 1 listings

Contributions: 8637
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Since January 2009

I guess that "many areas ... real estate is healthy" means like NONE of the 20 biggest metros, no part of florida/california/nevada/arizona, etc?....

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April 30 2008
Profile picture for Waiting4Ever
Contributions: 683

weeber

keep the house

not a good time to sell a house

and gas for the RV is expensive

 

anyways

 

good luck

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April 30 2008
Profile picture for silverfig
Contributions: 204

Oh wow huffingtonpost . HAHAHA Everyone on that ultra liberal board WANTS the housing woes to continue for election year.

 

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April 30 2008

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