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The Rumor Mill will banks dump or hold onto coming foreclosures

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rjon.101

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The Rumor Mill  will banks dump or hold onto coming foreclosures  
A fact is that there are a lot of foreclosures that banks are holding and that 8 million more are expected to occur in the next  4 years.
Rumor is that banks will hold these foreclosures and trickle them out to keep prices up..  this could be true or be a good PR tactic to get buyers to stop waiting for further price decreases. 
Here is a possible item to watch for  
It is all dependant on what a little known group of 5 men will do, called the FASB  Financial Accounting Standards Board  ( no I am not going into conspiracy theories sorry)
IF they decide to implement stricter Mark to Market rules and they are discussing this now, then the banks will have to list their foreclosures at market value ( todays value) instead of a make believe book value (its 2006 sales price) this will affect a banks accounting negitively and the banks will have to dump the houses to get them off of their books. If the looser mark to maket rules are kept then the banks can keep the foreclocures on their books at the fantasy value (2006 sales price) and the result is they have twice the money they really have
read
"Fair-Value Accounting Is ‘Horror Flick Monster': Chart of Day "  August 13, 2009 21:28 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/ ... a_Q_PbGWc
so watch the mark to market rules  you can google ' Mark to Market FASB '. You may if the rules are changed as discussed at this time (that is a maybe) suddenly find a whole lot of foreclosures with signs on them.
Any thoughts or ideas
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August 17 - Taft
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Roberto Ribas, "azrob"

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is this a joke? They may hold them for a while, but they can't very well just hold hundreds of billions of dollars worth of homes forever! Taxes, maintenance, crime, and deterioration would bankrupt any bank attempting this.
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August 17
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rjon.101

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Not a joke , I have heard this rumor in several conversations including the "bankers" and several REAs (really).  Which is why I ask about it on zillow to see what others think or know or it they have heard this rumor.
I do believe the "banks " could hold billions of dollars of houses for a few more years if they think they could trickle them into the market for a general increase of 50%  that turns billions into more billions. That is the strength of being able to hold onto assets during the down cycle.
Practicle ?  maybe not. but if banks upper managements were "practicle " this recent boom/bust would not have occured and several major banks would not have ceased to exist and lots of little banks would not have disappeared, who ever dreamed the fuzzy financing of 2004 to 2007 would exist. who ever thought of something like a CDO would come into existance or that someone could borrow 10X their yearly income with 101% financing to buy a house.  WHich is why I don't put this rumor past being a reality. but I think the mark to market rules will be what has the most affect on a bank trying this "holding scheme"
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August 17
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Michael Emery, "MikeEmery"

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Absolute hogwash.

The carrying costs of these properties would quickly eat up any potential profit down the road. When a home is empty it is deteriorating every day. Property taxes have to be paid. Homes have to be winterized. Grass has to be cut. Snow has to be shoveled. Maintenance has to be kept up (painting, etc). If the house is vandalized the property will need to be boarded up and then ends up on the 'condemned' list which in Minneapolis means a $6,000 assessment against the property.

Banks have done a horrendous job of lending money out to buy these homes. Who would believe that banks would have the ability to warehouse these homes.

Maybe this 'rumor' is some from the same bucket of mud that says President Obama is not an American born citizen. American productivity would swell 1000 percent if we just put these rumors to rest.
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August 17
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rjon.101

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Has anyone else head these rumors or are they just circulating around southern california?
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August 17
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Roberto Ribas, "azrob"

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First off, there have been moratoriums on foreclosures, particularly at fannie and freddie. These have been announced, and mostly ended.

My personal opinion, is most of the slowdown has been basic bureaucratic bumbling. The banks/mortgage servicers are leviathans, and unfit to turn on a dime and respond to market changes.

I have short sale listings. I call and call, get call centers in third world countries, fax to numbers that don't answer. The same bank calls my client and tells her "you really should short sale this home."  One hand doesn't know what the other is doing. 

But your comment "save them for a few years and then sell them for 50% more" has an error in it: the number of homes that banks have in foreclosure will crush the market today, tomorrow, 5 years from now. In phoenix alone, we are approaching 50,000 homes in the foreclosure process. On any given year, there are already lots of people who want or need to sell. Add 50K to this number, and the market is in freefall.

Another common suggestion, is for the banks to rent them. Well, the rental market is even smaller, and already suffering from high vacancy/dropping rents. On the mls here there are a record 9300 homes for rent. Add even 1/5 of the homes in foreclosures to this number, and the rental market will collapse.

And as a final point, large market manipulation is extremely tough. OPEC has had as many failures as successes, oil dropped under 10 a barrel on their watch in the 80's. The Hunt brothers lost a fortune trying to manipulate the silver markets;  Do you really see anything in the bank's history to suggest the competence and forethought to attempt the biggest asset class price manipulation in the history of the world?
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August 17
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rjon.101

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Roberto

have you heard heard this rumor or a variation promoted in Az, especially in the Real estate business in Az?
Has anyone else heard it in their area ?
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August 17
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Aldreth

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It's called mark to fairytale......................................................


This little piggy went to mark-to-market....


"In the end, we learned that Enron's accounting was pretty much mark-to-fairy-tale, with the company booking enormous gains from assumed future profits on schemes"


---This is what your beloved Barack Obama is hoping the American People will buy on the stock market... A nation of banks marking to fairy tale a'la Enron. DING DING DING that's right, we are frauds.
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August 17
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Pasadenan

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Any updates on the foreclosure liquidation rates?  Do most lending institutions have a policy and procedure yet?
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October 10
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Pasadenan

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Any ideas on how to market fairy tales?
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October 10
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daclarkga

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One would think the rental market would be up due to the foreclosures... people have to live somewhere, houses in foreclosure cant be owner occupied or rented. If they dont buy they have to rent. Everyone isnt living with mom and dad or on a friends couch. 

I "was" looking at buying a foreclosure in my neighborhood for a rental but once I started looking at the rental market am thinking better of it. 

What do you experts say.. what is the reason for the "flooded" rental market?



 
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October 12
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Roberto Ribas, "azrob"

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nope, with job losses, nobody who has studied real estate in any serious manner would expect the rental market to be up. We have lost 7 million jobs in this country and counting, that equates to several million less people able to pay rent.

vacancies are at the highest rates ever in most cities, rents are already falling, so hell no, rents aren't going up any time soon.

hint: people are moving in with friends as roommates, moving in back home.
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October 12
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White Picture

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That 7 millons families must go homeless!
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October 12
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Isklopot

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A question and a thought

Question:  How many foreclosed homes are owned by banks, and how many are owned by investment funds, pension plans, etc that bought pools of loans?  I can see local banks having to deal with maintenance, insurance, upkeep, but I don't think many funds that bought notes are equipped to handle anything beyond back-room financial transactions (i.e collecting and crediting payments) and haven't heard of any hiring property management firms.

Thought:  Are banks really doing much to maintain the properties they have foreclosed on?  In my area the foreclosures are painfully obvious--unmaintained yards, absolutely no maintenance, obvious deterioration;  unsure if they're keeping up with property taxes, HOA fees, other costs.  Most articles I've read have indicated that foreclosures are not taken care of by the bank/investment fund;  haven't read any describing how the bank is doing a good job.
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October 12
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dacolan

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Has anyone else head these rumors or are they just circulating around southern california?

I have heard this theory, among others, floated several times, rjon.101. This strikes me as lazy journalism. There are several other theories that seem more plausible.

Like Rob pointed out, the bureaucratic mess in management coupled with the gov't incentivizing them to hold (not only would releasing this inventory harm the housing market, but many of these banks that were just bailed out would likely be forced to recognize their insolvency otherwise).

Isklolot makes another cogent argument. The complexity of the investment vehicles created and backed by mortgages is making the task of identifying who holds the note a difficult proposition at best in many cases. Many banks/investors were hoping PPIP would allow them to pawn off these assets on taxpayers, as well.

While there may be some truth to the mark-to-market manipulation theory, this is no more than a temporary fix. Let's say a lender loaned $500K in 2006 to buy a home that has since lost 40% of it's value. While they can keep the value of that asset on their books for 500K using the new relaxed mark-to-market rules, they're losing $4K-5K per month in real terms. Instead of recognising the $200K loss immediately, they've slowed the bleeding to a loss of only $48K-60K annually. You can see how this cannot go on indefinitely. Eventually the banks will be forced to liquidate these assets.
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October 13
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DebtsNMesses

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dac, the rental market is flooded with pre-foreclosures. The 'owners' are renting and not paying the banks. They are instead pocketing the money. The tenants are then being kicked out once the bank forecloses. We saw this in July when several prospective tenants ran OUR home's loan situation. Then they came back in shock that there was no loan and told us they checked the home. lol We ended up renting to someone that had just completed a loan mod and wanted a bigger home.
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October 13
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CORONA NICK

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This thread is an oldie but goodie..lol
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October 13
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DYeh

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NO I did not hear about this rumor in Texas.  Crab!  If this is case that bank will hold on to the foreclosed properties for years, it would be a long and painful economic recovery.  awful.

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October 13
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Bob Gibbs, "TheRealEstateMarketW"

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I don't believe that banks will hold properties for a few years. However, I also do not believe that they will "Dump" them on the market either. My guess is that once the moretoreums, and whatever else gets inacted, ceases we will see a large number of homes come on but not to the point where a freefall in prices will occur.
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October 13
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DebtsNMesses

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Go ahead and let the banks hold the properties. In Calif they get stripped for copper, cabinets, bathtubs, etc. Let's see what the bank has left in the bag afterwards...

And if' that doesn't happen, nature will do the job! lol
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October 13
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Pasadenan

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OK, I'm still wondering when the lending institutions will decide on a policy and procedure, and when or how people can market properties at fantasy values, and especially still wondering when the PPIP will start having an impact and how that will play out.

To me, it seems that those financial institutions that have any clue what is going on and the staff to do something about it are just waiting knowing that the PPIP will "bail them out" if the government doesn't take action to do it sooner.
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October 13
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DebtsNMesses

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Why would the banks sell them when the govt will keep bailing them out?
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October 14
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Bob, I don't think the banks needs to pay tax, maintenance fees on the properties the they did not foreclosured but  only sent out default notices.

As long as the banks not taking back the homes and let people living in for free, they are not responsible for the taxes.
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October 17
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NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"

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they can defer it, but it has to be paid off when the deed is transferred back to the bank, i do believe. maint work is what you call in the buiz "a good idea."
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October 18
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my point is as long as the banks not taking those defaulted properties back. They are not responsible for the tax/maintenance, therefore they can keep the market with very low inventory for a long time.
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October 18
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Pasadenan

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So?  It appears the "real" issue is that the government now "allows" the financial institutions to keep the "book value" of the loan at 95% of the original loan value when the loan is not being paid, just so that the lending institutions will not evict the occupants so that the market will not be flooded, so that the government will have time to devalue to dollar sufficiently to stablize housing prices???

(I'm sure those government policy makers are taking about these impacts somewhere is some back room, but they certainly don't get good coverage in the general mass media).

So, what SHOULD the properties be "marked" to (in the lender's books)?  Where is the balance between fantasy, reality, and prudence, the "past" and "present", and the "near future"?
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October 19
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DebtsNMesses

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50% would be a high mark. lol
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October 20
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dacolan

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Foreclosures: 'Worst three months of all time'

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Despite concerted government-led and lender-supported efforts to prevent foreclosures, the number of filings hit a record high in the third quarter, according to a report issued Thursday.

"They were the worst three months of all time," said Rick Sharga, spokesman for RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes.

During that time, 937,840 homes received a foreclosure letter -- whether a default notice, auction notice or bank repossession, the RealtyTrac report said. That means one in every 136 U.S. homes were in foreclosure, which is a 5% increase from the second quarter and a 23% jump over the third quarter of 2008.
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October 20
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NTETS, "Caveat Emptor"

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tip of the iceburg
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October 20
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99_price_coming

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Decolan, actually I am seeing less and less and less inventory even a lot of properties are in pre-foreclosures. The banks take up to 2 years to take the properties back, sometimes just let the defaulted home owner to live for free forever.
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October 20
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dacolan

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Since October 2009

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You're right, 99. The banks aren't listing these homes (yet), but Q3 '09 set a new record for the pace lenders are filing notices of default on mortgage holders. They will not be able to continue holding back this inventory indefinitely.
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October 20

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