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The "green shoots" as far as housing goes, are utter BS.

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Roberto Ribas, "azrob"

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1. 60 day delinquencies on prime mortgages have nearly doubled year over year as of May.  The foreclosure crisis is about to get a lot worse, bringing waves of homes onto the market, in better neighborhoods now than the previous subprime loan foreclosures.

2. Jobs are still being lost. This is mostly misreported in the media, as jobs are being lost at a slower rate is reported as good news, however job loss is bad news for the economy, and bad news for housing. A slower rate merely means less bad news, but it certainly doesn't equal good news.

3. state budget crisis. We are about to see either draconian spending cuts, or state government shut downs. Either or both are dire for housing, as vouchers aren't going to pay the mortgage, and the inevitable job cuts will lead to more homes foreclosed.

4. Rents are declining, vacancies are rising in rental properties. This bring an entire new class of foreclosures, as investors and stuck flippers who have been eating the difference between rent and mortgage face the new realities of the rental market. I can personally name more than a few of these investors who have literally dozens of properties each, all of which are now in default.

5. modified loans are re defaulting. In fact, the 12 month re default rate is over 50%. Thus, as we get even more foreclosures from new defaults, we are about to be in the situation of getting double the new foreclosures, while getting half of last year's foreclosures back again.

Even today's "good deal on a home" is very likely in most cases to be a mistake. We are seeing a classic bear market rally, but it is unlikely to last more than six months.
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June 30 - US
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Pasadenan

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inevitable.... inevitable ----> inevitable .... *acceptable*
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July 02
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Pasadenan

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"Now we are involved in a great civil war, to determine whether this nation, or any other nation so conceived and dedicated should long endure".

Really, governments and government officials never cared about whether a nation endures, they only care about whether the economic and political position of select individuals and companies is maintained.  Governments have consistently made it clear that casualties are not only invitable during a time of restructuring, but that they are invitable.


Regarding the State Budgets, Calilfornia is stating some banks may "cash" the "I O U"'s issued if they set the interest rate as a sufficiently high number.  It is clear, the California Legislators do not want to pass a budget; they would rather force California to pay higher interest rates and to continue to spend borrowed money as the Federal Government has done since the Civil war.

But really, we are in a "civil war"; it is the "revolution" people have been predicting for decades; but the direction we should be heading is divided into as many different factions as Iraq.

Are we going to shape which direction we head, or are we just going to be spectators or casualties?

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July 01
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Lady Chattel

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Well, my bro's home is going into foreclosure and he is moving back in with the m-o-m.......so there you go......there is one more home on the banks books and one more person shacking up with another: it has been said many times on this board, that hard economic times will find people moving in together to consolidate costs......another hit to the myriad of homes sitting empty with no one willing to buy or occupy.  

Jkonstant hits it right on the head.......this past decade of helping people who are not fiscally responsible to own homes with gov't programs and such has not panned out well......make people work hard and save and put their skin in the game and they will ultimately work hard to keep their house nice and pay their own bills.  Used to be that people didn't buy a home until they were well into their thirties and the days of being 25 living in a McMansion are ovah. 
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July 01
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sunnyview

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I think a lot of questionable folks are going with the 3.5% FHA and buyers credit route. They technically qualify, but have shaky financial credentials /past experience and often do not have even the amount they need for closing costs independent of the credit itself . I think that the buyer's credit is creating the mortgage version of the depression "flop house." If you could pay your rent that week, you had a place to sleep, if not they threw your stuff out the window and brought in another flop. Mortgages are 30 year obligations, but the government has made it easy to dump one if you get into trouble and removed the stigma of failure. I think it's dangerous and it will bite the country in the b*tt down the line.
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July 01
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jkonstant

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Curious to hear an opinion. All these tax credit folks getting FHA, down payment  assistance, closing assistance, etc just to get them into "their own home" should raise some concerns. How many of these people are borderline at best and likely to fold in a year or two?
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July 01
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Michael Russell, "real estate mike"

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1.right
2.more jobs cuts coming soon near you(and me)3. wasteful spending has to go, YEAH! this country needs relief from too much government and stupid spending.4. with all the new alt-a foreclosures coming landlords may have to drop rents but will survive.5. only new, quality jobs can stop the rising defaults and don't see too much of that.The bear is not full just yet, hopefully he's past the appetizers if not the main course will be beyond devestating.  
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June 30
 

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