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The media's impact

BlakeandBrooke
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Do you think the media's constant doom and gloom has contributed to this market? They act like no one is ever going to buy a house ever again. I just wish they'd shut up.

September 19 2007 - US

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fairygirl43
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Amen! I do think the media has a tremendous influence on the housing market. Rates are still historically low and there are a lot of properties out there (including mine). I think savvy buyers know this. IMO, a majority of the buyers coming through my property weren't/aren't savvy and are completely influenced by whatever they heard that morning before looking at houses.

September 19 2007

Robin Lynch, "robin398"
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Yes, the media is contributing to it. As a realtor, I remain optimistic. Real estate local. Some neighborhoods are seeing an upturn and doing great while others are stagnant and nothing is selling. People are buying if they can truly afford it and are able to put more down so that in the future they are not strapped for cash when making a mortgage payment.

September 19 2007

Elizabeth Smith, "jtjlsmith"
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I agree...a big part of it is the media. Telling people not to buy. I know tons of people that are ready to buy but they are scared because what they here on the news ever day. I think it's sad because they are tired of renting and they want to own, but the media is there to scare them away. I rather own a house than rent any day.

September 19 2007

klarek the realist
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Does it hurt the market? Sure. But if you are insinuating that the media should ignore this stuff or be a cheerleader like NAR, well that's just disingenuous in my opinion.

September 19 2007

fairygirl43
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I don't think the media should ignore the situation at all. If anything, the media has often jumped on the bandwagon after the horse has left the barn (lots of current examples of this!!).

The media already has Jim Kramer to add the theatrics to the situation so perhaps not so much with the doom and gloom. Or perhaps feature some things that are good - the neighborhoods/part of the country that are selling. Probably not glitzy coverage like a "crash" in the housing market sounds but for those of us trying to sell, it would be refreshing!

September 19 2007

Dave Kelly, "4re.biz"
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Yes J&D fearful buyers are on the sidelines.
Here's a recent quote from local association newsletter:
"Ongoing turmoil within the home lending industry, tighter qualifying standards for home loans and the negative psychological impact both have on prospective home buyers squeezed the single-family home resale market in the San Fernando Valley during July, the Southland Regional Association of REALTORS� reported."

September 19 2007

chuckdog24
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This thread remains me of my cousin Louie.

For years Louie literally got "fat & happy" while others in the family were more measured in their eating & more active.

Fast forward to today when Louie now says, how did I get this way, why didn't anyone warn me & can I sue McDonnalds to make it all right?

Eventually the bad news of indulgence was going to start hurting on all sides & become a news story from both the seller & buyer's side.

September 19 2007

chuckdog24
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IMO (which is all most anyone writes in anyway), many bubble bloggers, doomers, bitter renters or whatever term we'll use for those priced out of the market, are jaded from the media taking so long to start picking up the story.

So yes, the recent media attention may be causing the issue to snowball. However, why did it take so long for the story to make it to mainstream media outlets like TIME magazine. TIME seems to be recognizing the problem for the first time in the Sept. 13 issue. For some media outlets it's as if it came totally out of the blue.

When I read articles that say something to the effect of, "more surprising bad news for the housing industry" I say, surprising to who? Many of us have lived the buyer's problem in buying for years now. I for one had found little empathy from those friends & family who didn't understand the paradygm that many buyers were experiencing. Finally they understand.

I'd further say that the buyer backlash & boom of bubble blogger sites can both be attributed to the little attention that the media payed to the potential downsides of the unprecedented 2000's housing boom as it happened.

PS: Rates this summer matched the highest points of this 5 year boom cycle. They're low WRT the past 25 years & have recently eased but they're not compelling enough to overcome the current market prices.

September 19 2007

heyharris1
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I completly agree, people are so into the media, that whatevery they say "must be true" in some area's they are correct, 100 % correct,in some area's they are not, so when they advertise the u.s. is falling apart, here soon you wont be able to walk down the street because everybody is living on them. it sends a shockwave though the whole country. so nobody wants to buy, even in area's that are not out of control.people cant seem tr realize what has happened, lets say in So. cal (that seems to be a popular state everybody talks about) has no affect in washington. that i can see. hell, maybe it does. i dont know.

September 19 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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The public's memory for news events is typically rather short. So the effect the media had (and they did have an effect) hopefully will be short lived.

Now if the real estate market was an attractive blond woman who was missing, we'd all be in trouble! That Americans remember.

September 19 2007

chuckdog24
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heyharris, WA state seems to have plenty of life in the housing market, perhaps in part due to land availability & the affordability issues in some parts of CA. I was stationed in the Tacoma area back in 1988-89 & have fond memories of the area.

Those who feel priced out of their local markets may:
1) Go forward & buy in that area
2) Wait to buy in their local area
3) Explore another part of the country that suits their lifestyle & housing budget

Point #3 would certainly make Housing sales get better in some parts of the country while others come back into line. While that would create pockets with good markets the TIME article specifically points out that the housing problem has grown beyond that of a "local real estate" issue. And from my experience, WA is a great "lifestyle" magnet.

BTW: Plenty of cheerleaders in the North East use the "regional arguement" but it backfires on them when an informed person points out how much the NE is bringing down the national figures.

September 19 2007

chuckdog24
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The "Bail Out Bill"
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/house-passes-bill-aimed-helping/story.aspx?guid=%7BF2CD6FF8%2D6937%2D4ABB%2DBE4D%2D91DFE996EDBC%7D

Just puts another cheeseburger in front of Louie & spreads the "cost". It will make him feel better in the short term & perhaps get the media quiet for a spell. Poor Louie, never saw it comming...

September 19 2007

2 Big 2 Fail
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Oh God, I hat those bubble blogger sites. I get banned from them all the time! I was just on a bubble blog site here in NJ scolding a renter for saying that home prices will dramatically fall, and I got banned because everyone thought I was Robert Toll. I did not start posting on the site until there was a thread about Toll Brothers so everyone assumed I worked for Toll...

September 19 2007

chuckdog24
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Has anyone started thread asking why bubble blogger sites are booming?

On one hand there's really not much productive there, very depressing.

On the other hand it does demonstrate the tenacity of many who have fealt that the mainstream media & marketplace were ignoring that the down side of such "great" capitalism. Before anyone thinks to go there, we're all Americans in this nation & capitalism is indeed great. Unmanaged or overmanaged for short term satisfaction (read: approval of the current political/economic leaders of the country) just has its down side.

It's time for Louie to admit that he has a problem, be a man & do everything in his power to correct the situation for the long term. And if that means gastric bypass surgery then for heavens sake let's get it over with & get back on track.

September 19 2007

heyharris1
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washington is a great state to buy in, but i think most the buyers here are worried after the media complety destroyed housing markets everywhere else,i feel people think that since so cal people have to drop there prices 100 k to sell so de we.

September 19 2007

Callista, "warriorprincess"
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Hmmmm...rather short memories here it seems. Has everyone already forgotten how much the media hyped the market on the way up? At that time people got scared they would be priced out of the market forever if they didn't buy immediately. The NAR and the CBIA (California Building Industry Association) were all over the papers spouting nonsense about how RE never declines. People obviously believed it, and payed huge sums of money for ANYTHING stricly out of fear.

Now the media is hyping the decline, and the psychology is moving the other direction. But that's just what they do. They hype things,..good bad and otherwise.

September 19 2007

heyharris1
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i agree with you callista, 100 percent, wont get an argument from me.All im saying in places where the "big bubble" didnt happen, we are being affected by this, obviousily the media didnt help us then or i would be asking 500 k for a house worth 250k, but the media is now hurting us because nobody once to but anywhere. o ya and also you stated "the CBIA" why does california keep being drug into a place 1000 miles away? maybe they built here to also, i dont know.

September 19 2007

2 Big 2 Fail
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Bubble bloggers are renters who were priced out of the housing market. No need for an in-depth investigation into their motives. Some bubble bloggers even live in their parents' basement. I have a bubble blog watch site that monitors a NJ bubble blog and here is something a bubble blogger actually said:

http://njrereport-watch.blogspot.com/2007/08/njrereport-renter-admits-to-living-in.html

September 19 2007

chuckdog24
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heyharris, I agree with you & callista. To your point, & I empathise with you and others BTW...
The credit issues, recession potential & yes the media (the topic of this thread) are some short reasons why the downturn will spread into "good market areas". The TIME article explains it better than I can & is worth the read.

This situation is going to be "unfair" to many casualties along the way. It's a shame that we can't have the specific bad apples of each part of the process take that responsibility but that's the hand that we're delt.

September 19 2007

chuckdog24
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Cute post Alpine & glad that you found one example to back up the "basement conspiracy". Scary that I'm finding you rather funny today.

September 19 2007

xSTALLiONx
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It's going to get worse as the builders start to try to free up some cashflow from their stockpiled inventories..

Taken from this CBS Marketwatch report:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/home-builders-offer-price-cuts/story.aspx?guid=%7B59AF392D%2D1246%2D4BEE%2DB285%2DEB6E2A215139%7D

A three-day nation-wide campaign this weekend by luxury home builder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. featuring price cuts as deep as $100,000 has drawn special attention and was seen as a sign of just how bad things are in the U.S. residential housing market.

------

Think about it...You buy a house.. The neighboorhood goes on sale for $100,000 less.. It means your home (comp) is now worth $100,000 less..

Lessons the viewers at home learn: Just keep low-balling the builders/sellers and you'll get your price.. Don't listen to the dopes that keep trying to sell you overpriced merchandise.. This isn't 2005 anymore.. Check what the price was appraised in 1999 and add 10% MAX. You'll get it!!

Next on HGTV: The opposite of flip this house.. something along the lines of "Steal this house"..

September 19 2007

klarek the realist
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I can't even believe that someone would entertain the idea that the media is to blame. I blame them for not covering this sooner. The media has nothing to do with the fact that nobody can afford these homes any more, or that foreclosures are flooding the market, or that lenders had to tighten their standards thus drying the already-dry pool of buyers. It's about as stupid of an excuse as those that say the media is why Iraq is a mess. No, it is in fact stupider.

September 19 2007

chuckdog24
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klarek, seems like there may actually be some room for "general" at least partial agreement from both camps:

The Media:
1) Is a contributor but by no means the sole cause of the market boom cycle
2) Used fear as callista brought up to help fuel a buying frenzy
3) Promoted the positive aspects of the market boom, fueling the boom
4) Had little coverage of the downside of such uncontrolled growth (would have been too gloomy & anti-capitalistic at the time)
5) Had little representation early on for those us caught on the wrong side of the bubble
6) Has now caught on to a salacious story regarding the downsides of a housing bubble & are playing it for all it's worth
7) Is now spurring fear in buyers who otherwise may not have checked things like Yale economist Robert Schiller's home price graph & come to the conclusion that now may not be a good time to buy (unless you need to)

September 19 2007

Roberto Ribas, "azrob"
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You guys must love OJ then, he managed to knock housing woes off the news for a few days!

Bubble bloggers are bitter renters? Hmmm seems a generalization..

I predict a drastic drop in home prices here in Phoenix... But I still own my home. I am having a pool party and bar-b-q on saturday, come on over...

when I got to phoenix, every home you could buy immediately rented for positive cashflow, no tricks just 20% down and 30yr fixed... SO it seemed to me homew were underpriced, and I began buying...

NOW you will lose your tail on that same proposition... so it seems to me they are wildly overpriced, probably about 30%...

Bitter? Darkside? hardly... rentor? nope I am a landlord.

Simply calling things like I see them...

September 19 2007

mpal
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what do you call those dogs?

September 19 2007

Kary L. Krismer, "Krismer"
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Klarek, I think we discussed this before about the press being late. I seem to recall agreeing with you and stating it's part of the reason I think the worst may be past. You can throw all sorts of statistics out the window and simply analysis a lot more by just assuming the press is so late they are wrong.

September 19 2007

chuckdog24
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< stating it's part of the reason I think the worst may be past.>

The points in MSN's recent article "Why you can't afford to buy a house" are just a bit deeper than "assuming the press is so late they are wrong."

I won't bore you by repeating or restating them.

September 19 2007

2 Big 2 Fail
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I can't wait for the primaries to start in the 08 election. Then there will be no housing coverage and everyone will forget about the housing slump....

September 19 2007

lucydjacobs
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As a person who works in the media, I can assure you that the AP, Washington Post, LA Times wrote tons of stories about how costs soared past the ability of two-income pouses to purchase homes. These articles mentioned that, at some point, the market was overly heated and a painful correction would occur. I know, because I read them often. The stories also warned about ARMs and no-document loans. These articles appeared whenever housing and cost-of-living federal reports were released.

The problem is that no one DID anything about it. In laissez-faire and free-market thinking,the federal government gets out of the way and lets the economy correct itself. Government would not react to assist Little Economy (homes not affordable for families) until a crisis, meaning one that affected Big Economy (corporate business/Wall Street/dollar's strength) and led to political consequences that would affect an upcoming national election should the economy slide to doom during an unpopular war.

The role of journalists is to inform the public. Journalists cannot change lending regulations or practices. They don't control the Fed. Reserve. They do not legislate. They cannot enact law. If no one reads the information, or writes a congressman instead of ranting to another bunch of blog readers who do nothing but gripe to other blog readers, nothing happens. Griping ain't doing.

It's frustrating to listen to talk radio and the hosts scream that the next story is one that "THEY" - meaning the media - don't want you to know about. Except the host got the info from a paper. The talk-show hosts knows his listeners were so busy reading blogs or entertainment sites or writing blogs that they won't have a clue he ripped the story from the Cleveland Plain Dealer or Miami Herald that morning.
Blogs have broken stories, and there are news stories about THAT in the news wires. What do real journalists want you to know? EVERYTHING about how laws, economy, policies are made.

September 19 2007

lucydjacobs
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Oh... and more to the direct question.

The crisis will ease up as soon as banks can sell their loans again. Krismer is correct that memories are short.

National stories usually will have local angles added, or will follow soon thereafter. The national AP story about foreclosures in Fla., Nevada, Georgia ran in my paper one day. In a day or two was a story that said the length of time on market in my county had grown from three months to nine months, with inventory high. The time lapse of national story and local follow-up is determined by how quickly the local Realtors or other real-estate agencies return their phone calls.

September 19 2007

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