"Third of homes in Seattle metro area worth less than mortgage"

What is the opinion from Seattle area Brokers?
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February 09 2011 - Seattle
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Answers (8)

Profile picture for SeattleHome.com
The metro area Zillow studied includes King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.  Foreclosures are 50%-100% higher in P&S than they are in K.  You can't say "1/3 of Seattle homes are under water" and then include stats from Stanwood and Eatonville.  This is probably the Seattle Times' and King 5's fault for removing the "metro area" from their stories to make them more dramatic.

The study only includes homes with mortages--immediately, the title and conclusions are invalid.  Take the time to do the full research and add in the lien-free homes--every one of which is, by definition, not underwater.

The study doesn't calculate how much of a home's loan has been paid down, only the original balance.  That number might be small, but there's no way for Zillow to know.  Has the home been remodeled and increased in value?  No way to know.

Values have certainly decreased for a few years, but this is a poor statistical evaluation.  This needs to be its own post.
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February 11 2011
Profile picture for jal74
That's not possible

Cary Krismer right on these pages emphatically stated that there would be no price declines in Seattle.  If a realtor said it, it must be true

Regards
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February 10 2011
Hi everyone,
This is actually Zillow data. We look at all single-family homes with mortgages and compare loan amounts with current values. We publish negative equity data quarterly, and just released Q4 data (which you can find here). Happy to answer more questions if needed.
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February 10 2011
Profile picture for daveskow
fyi ..this AM the  seattle times  published correction/ clarification that their headline does not include homes that have no loans on them ...so in realtiy this overall percentage  of upside down homes is lower
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February 10 2011
Profile picture for John Madrid
Good to know if this statement factors in the approximately 1/3 of homes that are owned outright as well as whether it includes condos and townhomes.  Even if you exclude homes owned outright this stat seems high for single-family homes within the Seattle city limit especially in the north part of the city. 

Click below for sales price trend data for select north Seattle communities

[link removed by moderator]
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February 10 2011
The data likely comes from the mortgage bankers association. that is where I typically find these pieces. They have a pretty fair idea about the value of the assets supporting their mortgages. 
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February 09 2011
Profile picture for Rob Graham
I saw this add in the Seattle Times.  I am curious where they got there info.  I assume it is from a sampling using the mortgage data recorded on the deed and the Zestimat, but I dont' know.  The number sounds amazingly high to me. The refi boom figures into this as well.  I just don't know where the numbers are coming from so I can't be critical or supportive of the claim.
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February 09 2011
Profile picture for daveskow

I will be interseted  in hearing feedback

in my opinion , this is more accurate for areas outside the " metro " bubble ( say 5-10 mile radius from downtown)   ...but who knows I could be very wrong .....

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February 09 2011
 

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