Profile picture for silent_observer

This is it - we are in the bottom whether you like it or not.

Game over guys and it is going to be a bumpy uptick moving forward and todays' rally proves it. $hitty bank is profitable? wow! hopefully it is not another Enron :D
  • March 10 2009 - San Francisco
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Answers (65)

Profile picture for silent_observer

when warren buffet thinks the economy is on free fall you should start thinking positive (given his recent history).

watch this another bear thinks there is not much more lower to go.

all zillow realtors get your pom-pom ready.

  • March 10 2009
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Profile picture for jimmy57
Don't believe it.  Pandit boosting Citibank stock price with a "memo" -- that's just a manipulation.

I'd be very surprised if this (bear) rally even lasts out the week.  Some day-traders will get rich, and maybe they will buy some houses or cars.
  • March 10 2009
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Profile picture for sunnyview
I want to be rich too. Can I day trade? I'll trade you my Monday for your Wednesday.
  • March 10 2009
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Profile picture for BMFPitt
I thought this was a bump from November.  Oh well, see you at DOW 5500.
  • March 10 2009
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Profile picture for whipsawfx
This is a bear market, which we have been in for 18 months now (14000+  Oct 07) which is above the average of 10months, a third last as long as this ... if you look at the depression, the market fell from  452, to 48 in 3 years. A comparable level for the DJIA is 1831, I dont think we will get that far, but I bet we will see a print in the 4000's....

As to the housing market remember, that this decline in the stock market far outweighs any half arsed stimulus plan. Less wealth for both companies and consumers to spend, more layoffs, less money is available to fuel the economy .... no money for downpayments ...

Mark this post, I hope Im wrong ... the best thing we can all do is spend spend spend ... Believe me Im doing my best ;)
  • March 10 2009
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Profile picture for sunnyview
I am thinking the bottom may be about 5300 or so. I don't know though. Stocks are not my forte. I know enough when to get out, but that's it. I'm hoping that things stabilize for everyones sake. I think the market is one piece of that, but for now it feels like day traders, hedge funds and shorts are running the market. I think it'll stay that way until the man on the street feel more secure.
  • March 10 2009
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Profile picture for Lady Chattel
They will put any info out there to try and get the American people happy and spending again.   Uh, not falling for that spin doctoring.......sure, spend and get yourself into more trouble, duh, isn't spending what you don't have what got us here and how many of those people have anything to spend right now.   Pathetic really.  
  • March 10 2009
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Profile picture for jimmy57
Read personal accounts of the Great Depression, and you realize that there were degrees of hope and optimism, and with many false rallies for years even as markets and employment continued downward.  This episode will be different in many ways, and hopefully not as bad, but it's difficult to believe that with the weight of bad debts we are dealing with that it's going to be resolved quickly.

I don't have the expertise, or the nerve, to day-trade.  All I can hope to do sense when all the cards are on the table.  Right now it feels like too many people are trying to hide their really, really bad hands.
  • March 10 2009
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Profile picture for Blue Nile
S.O. -
Since you are so happy with the 40% increase in Citi Bank stock from the below one dollar level, why don't you buy a whole lot if it before it drops back down again?

So, what are you really expecting when they release the first quarter numbers instead of just a memo?  Perhaps more layoffs?

Even if Citi Bank WAS at the bottom and is not going under due to Federal Government investment, you really think this has anything to do with any other sectors?

  • March 11 2009
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Profile picture for Bette Defarm
Didn't even last a day....Where is Aldreth when you need him?
  • March 11 2009
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Profile picture for silent_observer
pasa, lending and banks' profitability is key to recovery( or atleast wallstreet is betting on that). bette, it is still going on and i am sure soon everyone will be taking profits but many good companies are attractively priced!
  • March 12 2009
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Profile picture for Bette Defarm
Yes, I spoke too soon... I am very surprised given the surge in jobless claims. I get healthcare and telecoms, but financials? 
  • March 12 2009
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Profile picture for mrfnuts
pasa, lending and banks' profitability is key to recovery( or atleast wallstreet is betting on that). bette, it is still going on and i am sure soon everyone will be taking profits but many good companies are attractively priced!

I am going to wager that never in your life have you bought stock in a company and then later sold that stock at a profit.  And if I have won this bet, then, why exactly are we to take your word for it that many good companies are attractively priced!?

Any evidence to back up that claim, other than parroting Obama's message from March 3rd?

  • March 12 2009
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Profile picture for silent_observer

nutsmoron, wtf you want?

  • March 12 2009
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Profile picture for silent_observer
oh i know what you want. you hate the tax hike don't you? you are a guy who is living on unemployment benefits why do you care about tax hikes and stock investments? go look for the food stamps that i am paying for.
  • March 12 2009
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Profile picture for silent_observer

i already told you your mama didn't give you breast milk so you are retarded completely.

  • March 12 2009
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Profile picture for mrfnuts
Wow!  A your mama insult.  Ah, the memories of elementary school.

You never fail to validate the saying:
Never argue with an idiot, they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.

Nonetheless, I believe it's safe to conclude that I would have won the wager when I said: 'I am going to wager that never in your life have you bought stock in a company and then later sold that stock at a profit.

So, be warned everyone, as to who is giving the recommendation: 'good companies are attractively priced'

Funny thing is, I wasn't debating that statement, just curious as to why you believe it to be true.

  • March 12 2009
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Profile picture for Mr Caveat
isnt it supposed to be desperation in the market? i dont see desperation, i see people all calm cool and collected. people arent irrationally selling all their assets just to have cash that will not lose value anymore... people are still undervalueing the future losses, and that means that this bump though predictable, is only temporary. fingers crossed for dow 8500 ^_)^

0.02
  • March 12 2009
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Profile picture for Blue Nile
I can believe that some good companies are "attractively priced", but what I didn't see was how to determine what a good company is, nor how to determine if something is "attractively priced".  It used to be by price to earnings ratio, but that criterion hasn't been very helpful for many years now since prices kept going up even though they would never make enough money to pay off the ownership investment.


  • March 12 2009
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Profile picture for Blue Nile
For "small businesses" that didn't have commercial stock, the value for selling off a business at retirement... typically was the sum of:
1) Accounts Receivable minus any outstanding debt obligations
2) A nominal percentage for projects in progress plus client base plus experience of trained personnel.
3) Value of office space (if owned) plus a nominal percentage of depreciated equipment (what it could be sold for at a "fire sale").

Yet, if it becomes a "public stock" it is all of  sudden supposed to be worth 10 times that?  It can't be.  Branding and advertisement does not produce that kind of return.
  • March 12 2009
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Profile picture for silent_observer
pasa, read this roubinis' post and it he analyzes why this is a bear market suckers rally :-( (nutsmoron, you win). it is a probably a good time to make some short-term profits or get burned or probably hold tight and will till 2010 to get into the market again.
  • March 15 2009
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Profile picture for silent_observer
pasa, we already discussed in another thread on how to find companies if they are attractively priced by using shillers' cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio(remember?). shiller said if it hits 10 or below he will jump and buy. now we are close to 13 for S&P so we are still priced higher but some individual stocks which are lower than 10 with solid fundamentals and history is attractive. what do you think?
  • March 15 2009
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Profile picture for MRice20HD
I think you're a clutz who likes to post dumb ish cause you have no one willing to listen to your blather. 
  • March 15 2009
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Profile picture for silent_observer
nutsmoron = MoronRice20HD
  • March 16 2009
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Profile picture for Mr Caveat
I am going to wager that never in your life have you bought stock in a company and then later sold that stock at a profit.  And if I have won this bet, then, why exactly are we to take your word for it that many good companies are attractively priced!?

i bought FNM and FRE and made money at both.... in the thousands, and i did it without investing hardly lunch money... thats why penny stocks just kick ass sometimes

is that a particularly good reason to take my financial advice as gospel, mr fnuts?

not saying i do or dont have mad skillz, just that hindsight is 20/20
  • March 16 2009
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Profile picture for silent_observer
nt, nutsmoron is attacking me. he is on a mission so just ignore him and don't respond.
  • March 16 2009
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Profile picture for sunnyview
"I am going to wager that never in your life have you bought stock in a company and then later sold that stock at a profit. " Not true for me. I don't generally do the stock market thing one pick at a time, but I have made money on buying/selling individual stocks--not very often though because I'm a confirmed stock market chicken. Why are you in such a bad mood mrfnuts. The market is in a strong rally today. That's good, right?
  • March 16 2009
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Profile picture for MRice20HD
Sorry, I'm not MrFnuts.  I just share his same sentiment.  I used to come here to get advice from intelligent people that gave reasons and references for their statments.  I guess they have all left.  I think it's absurd that this is what Zillow has now become-a place for rudimentary discussions about the economy from people that know nothing about it.  Ignorance breeds ignorance.  Have fun!
   
  • March 16 2009
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Profile picture for mrfnuts
NTETS:

I always thought you were a bright guy, but, I must correct you on a few things:

1) You took my quote out of context.

It can be clearly seen I was inferring that 'SO', as usual, made a an assertive statement without any providing any evidence evidence to prove it, in essence he 'stated a conclusion'.

2) (and more importantly) If we were to take the out of context quote as you did, as a given 'if then statement' you cannot inverse the statement without proof.  They are not logically equivalent.  The only logically equivalent is the contrapositive.

In other words:

If A then B

is NOT logically equivalent to:

if not A then not B

The only given truth to 'if A then B' is:

if not B then A

If we take the original statement which is true:

If not (this guy has bought and sold stocks in companies for a profit) then not (taking financial advice from this guy)


  • March 16 2009
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Profile picture for mrfnuts
The only logically equivalent statement you can make about that without proof is:

if not not (taking financial advice from this guy) then not not(this guy has bought and sold stocks in companies for a profit)

Or we can reduce this to:
If (taking financial advice from this guy) then (this guy has bought and sold stocks in companies for a profit)

Your inversion of my statement has a very different meaning, and is not logically equivalent, and thus requires proof:

If not not (this guy has bought and sold stocks in companies for a profit) then not not (taking financial advice from this guy)

  • March 16 2009
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