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U.S. Home Prices Rise For Fourth Straight Month

As U.S. home prices continue their monthly gains, more confidence is building that the housing market is stabilizing.  While winter home sales and prices will most likely provide a short dip in statistics, fall sales have been particularly encouraging.
 
October home sales rose over 10% this year, creating a surge in the stock market and further confidence in real estate.  The sales beat the predicted estimate of a 1.4% increase, and was attributed in part to the first time home buyer tax credits. 

There's no guarantee that the market has stabilized, just some more data to add to the discussion.
  • November 24 2009 - Laurelhurst
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Answers (25)

Profile picture for dacolan
These are positive indicators, but are they enough to outweigh the negatives to suggest stabilization.

As you pointed out, the jump in sales likely can be attributed to the previously coming expiration of the home buyer tax credit (that has since been extended).

The jump in home prices may simply be the byproduct of the mix of homes sold (Case-Shiller's data would probably give a more meaningful reading than the NAR's methodology). After all, there are fewer and fewer foreclosures being put on the market, yet there are more houses in delinquency than for sale (and many, many more on the way).

Add the 10.2% unemployment rate (and rising), coupled with the gov'ts artificial market manipulation set to expire this spring - both the buying of Fannie/Freddie's toxic MBS debt and the recently extended home buyer tax credit - and "uncertain" may be the best possible light the current projection of the residential RE market can be painted in.
  • November 24 2009
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Profile picture for falsedawn
October home sales rose over 10% this year

As a potential buyer next year, I really couldn't care less about the number of houses sold, just the YOY change in median prices and affordability.


creating a surge in the stock market
Wrong, and displays a lack of basic economic knowledge.


As Dacolan said, It seems pretty obvious that the glut of foreclosed (and soon to be foreclosed) homes, the end of the tax credit and governement MBS purchases are going to keep a lid on recovery for quite a while yet.


Stabilized? Maybe, to a degree.
Recovering? Not for a few years yet.
  • November 24 2009
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Profile picture for SeattleHome.com
"creating a surge in the stock market
Wrong, and displays a lack of basic economic knowledge."


Actually, the day this exact report came out, there was a stock market surge, which virtually all of the market analysts attributed to the home sales report.  Nothing more intended.

"As a potential buyer next year, I really couldn't care less about the number of houses sold, just the YOY change in median prices and affordability.""

And thus, you should be encouraged that prices are down for the year, if you're worried about affordability.  Or, are you looking for price increases, which would weaken affordability?

""uncertain" may be the best possible light the current projection of the residential RE market can be painted in."

Zillow doomers, your ability to be gloomy and negative never ceases to amaze.  Keep it up.
  • November 24 2009
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Profile picture for Blue Nile
If we really wanted to be "positive", we would suggest that the number of agents in this country be reduced by 75%, and the number of loan officers reduced by 85% and get these people to do some REAL work for a change, actually "producing" something that contributes to the gross national product, instead of just being a drain on it.

And if the sales data really improved, the 2010 census should show that the average ownership of a housing unit is 22 years, and the average rental tenancy is 10 years.   This flip the occupancy every 3 to 5 years is a complete waste of precious resources and provides complete instability in communities.  The REALTORS  ® keep working AGAINST the people, and have been doing so as long as I can remember.

They are almost as bad as the American Medical Association that work to insure that no one in the United States will ever have any "health care".   This bill in the Senate is just one more example of the AMA stealing from the people to line their own pockets by selling poisons authorized by the FDA that have NEVER been tested for more than 2 years that are only intended to weaken people and shorten their lives.  That is why it is called "medicine" instead of "care".  What they "sell" is worse than what the illegal drug sellers are selling.
  • November 24 2009
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Profile picture for SeattleHome.com
There we go, lower the bar.  Next?
  • November 25 2009
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Well, I can go along with the positive thoughts. :-) I'm positive the worst is yet to come.
  • November 25 2009
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Profile picture for SeattleHome.com
At least DNM has some humor added to the gloom.   Good post.
  • November 25 2009
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What's that prayer? Change the things you can... and laugh when you do, laugh and roll your eyes about the things you can't change, and the wisdom to know the difference.

Something like that... lol
  • November 25 2009
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I find it really entertaining that the average home price doesn't include things like average square footage or average county assessed value. In particular, I am guessing the rising tides of "good credit" homeowners defaulting (link) are probably in higher dollar value homes on average (since it is much harder to get those loans with poor credit, even in the drug dealer loan days). It could actually be a huge net loss in home prices and the nicer houses in foreclosure.

Sam: when you post statistics, can you please link a source to the data?

  • November 25 2009
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EXACTLY Tiff. That was in much discussion 2 years ago here. They have switched the way the track the data from average home price of an average sized home, to the median price with sq' not considered. Before the average price meant average of a 1200sq' home. Now the size of the home can flux greatly with 'median' floating free. While smaller homes were crashing in 06-7, median prices kept climing, because the rich were still buying. If two cheap homes sell, the median goes down, if two huge homes sell, the median goes up.

Therefore, we here have determined 'median' is malarky. --Just more smoke and mirrors from these corporate giants.
  • November 25 2009
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Using inconclusive methods to arrive at statistical data does no one a favor. It completely undermines the point of having statistics. There is a statistician out there somewhere who should be hit with a wet noodle by his/her bretheren.

  • November 25 2009
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Profile picture for Lady Chattel
So do we just continue to hokie money game so that we can continue living the high life?   And yes Debts......I believe the worst is yet to come.

On CNN yesterday they said that 11% of homeowners that bought a home in 2009 were already underwater on their mortage........doh.
  • November 25 2009
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It's 13+% in Seattle, 23% national, 65% Nevada, 48% Arizona, and 45% Florida according to a Puget Sound Business Journal article yesterday (link)

Same day, different article, Seattle home values fell 13.8% last year (link).
  • November 25 2009
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I took a course in college, where the professor helped us analyze studies conducted. She taught us to quesstion every piece of data, and by the end of the course, we figured most data out there was faulty. It was gathered wrong, broken down wrong, improper conclusions, etc. I still say if you form a hypotenus (sp?) or theory, you've already drawn a conclusion, before doing the study, and therefore it's faulty because you're seeing it through rose colored glasses, but my prof didn't like that theory. lol

I looked at a home today... it's going up for live auction. I was curious since it was in our neighborhood (250K+ homes) as to why it had a starting bid of 50K. Well, they built it 2 feet below ground, in a flood zone. Severe cracks in the foundation, and we assume rotting walls, since I got a sore throat right away. The only thing salvageable in the home were the new windows. lol Nice big, well built, extra deep 3 car garage... on the high part of the property. Go figure.
  • November 25 2009
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Profile picture for Bette Defarm
Oy, don't get me started...I feel a rant coming on. These kind of  OPs make me nuts...Thankfully, the  thread replies were so satisfying, my blood pressure returned to normal in mere minutes. 
  • November 25 2009
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Should buy 100% cover health insurance.
  • November 25 2009
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Wouldn't 100% coverage fall into a "cadlillac plan" and thus be highly taxed?
  • November 25 2009
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October 2008 - The sky is falling!

October 2009 - The sky is not falling as fast!
  • November 26 2009
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rise from the pits of Hell.....the abyss....1990's levels...the worst correction in history....
  • November 26 2009
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"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." Famous quote which fits this discussion.

  • November 27 2009
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Profile picture for SeattleHome.com

"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." Famous quote which fits this discussion.

Seconded--words to live by.

Also, a wise man once said "87% of statistics are made up on the spot."

I usually use Case-Shiller stats, just as flawed as any other system, but fairly credible. 

Prices are down YTD.  Prices are up for the quarter.  Sales are up vs. 2008.  Prices are down vs. 2008.  They're all credible, just very different ways to interpret them.

  • November 27 2009
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Profile picture for klarek the realist
Future housing demand pulled to the present with a first time homebuyer credit that can be bridged into a down payment which they probably would otherwise would not have had.  Not unlike the housing bubble, these gimmicks create a fake market of increasing home prices which are certain to fall once the stops are pulled. 

But go ahead, celebrate these moments of delusional price increases.  They're not real and can't last.  All they're doing is entrapping more people in houses that will be severely underwater in a couple of years.
  • November 27 2009
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Profile picture for Lady Chattel

Who is going to fill the million ++ homes that currently sit empty?  Lots of people have been moving back in with mom and dad, shacking up with friends, etc.....until people have money there aren't any industries that will be rebounding long term

  • November 27 2009
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Profile picture for BayWind
Debts

That is my favorite Thomas Jefferson quote. Even that early in our history it was recognized that less Government intervention is better. We just never seem to learn our lessons? 

 A few bigger mistakes are still coming, I actually fear for the next generations. 

 
  • November 28 2009
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Baywind:

Our government seems to operate in the framework of a prizoner's dilema game...they could get a better outcome with cooperation, but they are so busy screwing each other over the net gain is small, if any.

  • November 28 2009
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