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U.S. Housing Crash Deepens in 2008 After Record Drop

Profile picture for Spleng
Contributions: 4633
"For U.S. homeowners, builders, bankers and realtors, the crash of 2007 will only get worse in 2008."

"It's just a matter of time before the weakness spreads to the rest of the economy.''

``The whole thing has deteriorated faster and further than we or anyone else had anticipated,''

http://tinyurl.com/yrzv5r
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December 17 2007 - US

Replies (17)

Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6673
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Since September 2009

That doesn't sound good. It sounds pretty risky to buy a house right now. I'd hate to be paying into a depreciating liability that I'd be a slave to for years.
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for Spleng
Contributions: 4633
"That doesn't sound good. It sounds pretty risky to buy a house right now. I'd hate to be paying into a depreciating liability that I'd be a slave to for years."

But what if you love it?
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for sunnyview
Contributions: 10849
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Since January 2009

Oh lordy, how about a breath a fresh air from the folks at http://realtytimes.com and one of the local market reports for a town about 60 miles away from me. Brace yourselves because it is an unbelieveable revelation for all within earshot:

"It's always a good time to buy a home in Salem. All real estate is local, and the market here is healthy and growing. Don't wait for a better opportunity. The opportunity is now! Please call me for more information or help."

I am just hoping that the housing problem doesn't tank the whole economy. Otherwise, I'll be renting out rooms in my house until I am finally forced out of it. Next stop for me would be living on BLM land in a tent with a shotgun. I don't know how messy this will get nationwide but it sure feels awful to be faced with so much instability with no place to really shelter yourself from the impact of inflation of energy, food, housing etc..
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for DebtsNMesses
Contributions: 6664
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Since July 2009

I know this sounds stupid, but I have a trust. A trust in God. If one of my offers gets accepted at the 2001 price, then I'm taking it. If not, I'm going back into a holding pattern. I had a job, when I needed a job. 4/5 interviews on my resume. The other times.. zero interviews on my resume. He kinda gives me a clue.

Now since they say 2008 is going to be bad NATIONWIDE, and socal is 1 yr ahead on the bust spectrum, then I should be reasonably ok. I would not say that for the upper end homes. They haven't tanked as hard YET.
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for caliguy
Contributions: 1283
Debts - It's also good that you guys in SD are further along than we are in OC...things here seem like they're only beginning.
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for DebtsNMesses
Contributions: 6664
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Since July 2009

I think OC busted after we did, too. The coastal areas in SD have fallen a lot... but in neighborhoods you wouldn't walk through. The good neighborhoods have taken a hit, but not nearly as much. Inland/Rural have taken a harder hit, but not Poway, where the school district STATEWIDEis highly desired and the neighborhoods are mostly awesome...
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for sunnyview
Contributions: 10849
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Since January 2009

Some places are definitely still behind the curve like Seattle for example. A few months ago they felt immune to any downturn. Not smart. Now they are seeing longer list times, more inventory and regular price reductions. It took time for their market to respond to the larger nationwide problem. But they will have a turn.

California especially SoCA will correct because long established desirable communities have strong job bases, limited space to build close in and it is pretty there. Other places like those dusty suburbs outside Sacramento and Stockton that were horribly overbuilt suck. They were hot markets without cause or close job base and those communities will continue to get the crap kicked out of them for a while.

There are still bumps left in the road for many. If you don't know whether you should buy now, don't buy.
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for jmac
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 7
Although all the talking heads employed by the NAR continue to preach that the sky has not fallen, their membership is left to find umbrellas for the visible market falling rain. It is disappointing when the association charged with representing you apparently couldn't find the truth if it were tatooed to their rear end.

Whether or not it is a good time to buy can not be answered on a wholesale basis. Everyone facing that question is an individual and deserves to have their situation analyzed individually.

This penchant that the bobble heads have for lumping everyone together in the same boat is self serving and very short sighted.

One has to wonder about the intelligence behind the data offered by the NAR when it has consistently been proven to be incorrect. Using bits of data to portray the entire story and backing up the story with sound bites that appear innocuous on the surface but are quite empty when examined is a dis-service to the public at large and the membership in general.

If anyone wants to know about their situation, they need only sit with two or three people. The truth will rise to the top. Those offering "everything is beautiful" information will soon be asking "would you like fries with that."
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for sunnyview
Contributions: 10849
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Since January 2009

jmac, thank God for realtors who can still tell the truth. I was afraid that the NAR had had a mass brainwashing session and that most of you had joined the cult over the last few years. I hope that the NAR membership can convince them that their unrealistically rosy statements give working realtors a bad name.

I appreciate good realtors as much as I despise bad ones. I just wish they had the numbers to kick the NAR rhetoric in the butt.
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for farmd0g
Contributions: 703
jmac,

If I were a realtor I would be expecting a little bit more real analysis from my national association. Talking points are all well and good but you have to have credibility. The NAR is quickly losing theirs. They can play with statistics but the first time they get caught folks stop listening. I have a realtor that I have been working with she pulls no punches and doesn't bother with the PR. I can work with that.
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for jmac
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 7
well, truth be told....i am a member because it is the only way that i can have access to the mls. they don't speak for me and lately they don't speak to me. i can work with that.
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for azrob
Real Estate Agent

View my 1 listings

Contributions: 8645
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Since January 2009

Of the perhaps 100 million homes in america, are there some that are a good buy today? sure!

Of all the stocks trading on october 23, 1929, where there some good buys that day for a long term invetstor? perhaps...

When all the dark clouds are gathering overhead, and the wind begins to whip about, smart sailors pull in some sails, and batten down the hatches... When the weather service shows a hurricane approaching you run for a safe harbour...

lets recap what is going on:

The government is trying to stop foreclosures with a freeze, the government is trying to set up super-siv (M-Lec) to buy subprime mortgage backed assets, the government has knocked .75% off the interest rates in the last 2fed meetings... Does anyone think they see a storm approaching?

Fannie mae, freddie mac and countrywide have taken enormous losses, cut dividends, and desperately borrowed money to avoid liquidity problems...

Risk /reward anyone? when the 3 biggest loan entities, which in total represent about 80% of the market, are showing financial strains, are we more likely to see A. looser lending, or B. tighter lending...

Foreclosures are climbing by leaps and bounds, and sales are now slow everywhere, with prices sliding in the majority of metros...

To look at all this and say "nobody has a crystal ball" I might just as well respond "a blind person doesn't see red lights while driving"
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for DebtsNMesses
Contributions: 6664
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Since July 2009

Azrob... or C. Both. They are tightening on SOME lending, mainly bad credit profiles, but it's still very loose by the traditional standards for good credit profiles.
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for caliguy
Contributions: 1283
What scares me about this part of So Cal is how dependent it had become on the RE industry during the boom. That makes me believe things could get pretty ugly. Heck, they already are...
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for SoCal BubbleBrain
'Those offering "everything is beautiful" information will soon be asking "would you like fries with that."'

Another great quote for the books. Please document for posterity. Great work J-mac.
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for Spleng
Contributions: 4633
Old but related to the season and professions involving fries:

http://www.americanangst.com/dingfries.html
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December 17 2007
Profile picture for Central Coast Ca.
close Profile picture for Central Coast Ca.

Central Coast Ca.

Arroyo Grande

Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 365
Man I just applied at McD's and I got turned down. Some high school kid got the jab! Darn...
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December 17 2007
 

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