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What is the housing market forecast for the next 3 years?

  • October 09 2012 - Fox Lake
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Answers (9)

Profile picture for pmzsteve
I'm surprised none of these other realtors are telling you what I am about to. I would bet on a sharp correction to the downside over the next 3 years. The economy is not nearly as good as it being FABRICATED to look like. Plus we have a new sales tax of 3.85% for properties over $250,000 going into effect after the first of the year. I expect prices will be approx. 20% lower in the next 3 years. No matter how low they drop interest rates it doesnt change the fact that obtaining a loan is more difficult today than ever, people are still out of work and the job creation rate is not keeping up with the rate of new graduates. It's time to face reality.
  • October 15 2012
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FHFA strategic housing plan 2013-2017

it sounds like more of the same with a few new guidelines for servicers to follow

I read short sales, deed in lieu...

HARP refy's, loan mods as ways to help folks retain home ownership in effort to stabilize housing market and stop loan defaults getting out of control...

strategic ways to sell off REO's most likely as managed rentals by large hedge funds with property management in place and then flip them in three years at predetermined and agreed prices.

as a Realtor most likely we'll be doing short sales, short sales, short sales that servicers don't like accepting until they're good and ready if I should live this long
  • October 10 2012
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Profile picture for John M Lieber

I believe the prices will trend up slowly and steadily for the next 3 years in most of the major markets for a couple reasons.

1. There have been fewer new homes built in each of the last few years than we have seen in decades. The low supply of homes has already made it very difficult for buyers to get an offer accepted in Southern CA and San Diego where I do business because it is so competitive.

2. It is cheaper to buy than rent in the vast majority of the major markets. Both investors and traditional buyers are seeing this and are buying homes.

  • October 09 2012
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Profile picture for hpvanc
I think the bottom is in for most of the country, barring an external economic shock driving more general deflation.  I think the market will be overall flat for the next 10-15 years, with some manic/depressive bumps along the way.  The only potential for significant appreciation is an external shock to the economy causing general inflation. 

Significant inflation or deflation are both unlikely.  We are a little over 10 years into an economic cycle where we have neither inflation or deflation. historically such cycles run 25-30 years in developed economies.  Watch for the end of the cycle in Japan to get an idea on the duration of ours, it began in 1989.
  • October 09 2012
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Profile picture for MatthewLongKW

I feel that aslong as the Federal Reserve continues to buy up the bond market to promp up mortgage back securites we should have a steady incline. Rates will continue to stay low due to the Fed's intervention and most investors are moving from equities to hard assets. The next three years will be on the up and up as veterans will return home utilizing the VA benefits and most unfortunate home owners who have short-sold/foreclosed will be in the process of fixing their credit and ready to buy again in the next 3-5 years.
  • October 09 2012
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Profile picture for user479209
I live near Fox Lake. Our area will be one of the last to recover. Our home lost 70% of its value, it's a small town home and unless there's a miracle or we do a short sale we're stuck there for the next 20 years.
  • October 09 2012
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Profile picture for Dunes ..
Well I haven't noticed any "pent up" "backlog" of buyers sitting on the fence who are going to go on a buying spree even if things were to become a tad bit more stable and personally I ain't all that sure it will...and the "turn around/ recovery/bottom" has been announced constantly by the RE Industry/many Agents (Most imo) since 2007

I think any fence sitters are pretty pleased they sat on that fence when looking at those who didn't
Have noticed/seen a "pent up" "backlog" of people who'd like to refinance.

Under any circumstances the pool of people who can qualify to buy is limited..finite...small compared to the past when a lie and a pen qualified people to be a buyer....
If the economy doesn't improve enough to create a larger pool of buyers (legitimate qualified buyers) I wouldn't expect any dramatic changes in Prices, interest rates or the yearly total of sales in an upward direction..

Thatsa my opinion
  • October 09 2012
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Profile picture for JohnWilt
No matter who gets elected at least the 'uncertainty' will be gone.  Lots of pent up buyer demand should be good for the RE market next year assuming we don't fall off a cliff.
  • October 09 2012
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If anyone could predict that they would be rich and retired. It is clear that the worst R  E market since the great Depression is over here in the Chicago area. This year was clearly the turning point, but no telling what the next 3 years might bring. I would guess that there would be a bounce up in prices for a bit because of the pent up backlog of buyers who have been sitting ont he fence for the past 5 years. Beyond that I have no clue.
  • October 09 2012
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