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- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4699
House prices are still to high. You are making the common mistake of seeing a top price of a bubble and comparing it to a lower but still elevated price. If instead you compare to 1997 prices which are pre-bubble you will find that house prices are still far to high.
Interest rates are another reason NOT to buy now. When interest rates go from 5% to 7% buying power drops by 23.7%. That effectively turns your 5% $200k mortgage payment into a 7% $153k mortgage payment with you paying the same each month. That will push house prices down as people will not be able to afford to pay more. Why buy now when a simple interest rate increase could remove 1/4 or much more of my houses value?
Do you know what the housing bubble really looks like? ... - Zillow Real Estate Advice
Peter Schiff: Here's Why Home Prices Have To Decline At Least 20% And Probably More
The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market - Economic Letter, December 2010 - FRB Dallas <-- the federal reserve
The Story Of 2011 Will Be The Second US Housing Crash
Even if you do not mind overpaying for a house now what about worrying about losing your job or not being able to get financing? There are many reasons to not buy now. If renting is a lot cheaper than buying buying makes no sense at all.
Interest rates are another reason NOT to buy now. When interest rates go from 5% to 7% buying power drops by 23.7%. That effectively turns your 5% $200k mortgage payment into a 7% $153k mortgage payment with you paying the same each month. That will push house prices down as people will not be able to afford to pay more. Why buy now when a simple interest rate increase could remove 1/4 or much more of my houses value?
Do you know what the housing bubble really looks like? ... - Zillow Real Estate Advice
Peter Schiff: Here's Why Home Prices Have To Decline At Least 20% And Probably More
The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market - Economic Letter, December 2010 - FRB Dallas <-- the federal reserve
The Story Of 2011 Will Be The Second US Housing Crash
Even if you do not mind overpaying for a house now what about worrying about losing your job or not being able to get financing? There are many reasons to not buy now. If renting is a lot cheaper than buying buying makes no sense at all.
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25139
I'd say a soft job market and dropping prices are the reasons that they are hesitant. Both would seem to be valid concerns.
- brad606
- Contributions:31
Easy: fear -- and a reasonable amount of certainty -- that the bottom isn't here yet. Doesn't matter how "good" prices seem to be now, or how "great of a time" it is to buy. There's dark news foreseeing 10-15% drops this year. And frankly, who's to trust predictions? At this point, why not another 10% drop in 2012.
For me, the Case-Shiller index is The Ballgame. We're still around 140, with a pretty reasonable case for temporary government programs having temporarily stalled the plummet at this level. Long term, it wants to go to 100-110, I think. That's another 20-30% drop still to come.
I'm a potential buyer who is happily renting, has zero debt, excellent credit, and cash on hand for a generous down payment. Why on earth would I go in right now on a $200k home when I reasonably think I could well lose $60k within 2 years? That's just a bad risk vs. reward business decision.
For me, the Case-Shiller index is The Ballgame. We're still around 140, with a pretty reasonable case for temporary government programs having temporarily stalled the plummet at this level. Long term, it wants to go to 100-110, I think. That's another 20-30% drop still to come.
I'm a potential buyer who is happily renting, has zero debt, excellent credit, and cash on hand for a generous down payment. Why on earth would I go in right now on a $200k home when I reasonably think I could well lose $60k within 2 years? That's just a bad risk vs. reward business decision.
- Call The Sisters, "Call The Sisters"
- Contributions:373
They are afraid the market has not reached bottom. They are concerned about our economic recovery.
First time home buyers seem to be older. 5 or 6 years ago as soon as a couple got married they were out looking for a home. Now we are seeing the couples out looking who have been married awhile and saving money for a home. They are mid to late 30's.
Buyers in the market today are compelled to buy. They need to up size or downsize or relocation is driving them.
First time home buyers seem to be older. 5 or 6 years ago as soon as a couple got married they were out looking for a home. Now we are seeing the couples out looking who have been married awhile and saving money for a home. They are mid to late 30's.
Buyers in the market today are compelled to buy. They need to up size or downsize or relocation is driving them.
- Ofe Polack, "Ofe Polack"
- Contributions:1418
Beside the chaos that reigns in the world at the moment, we seem to be involved in every uprising and world imaginable, the possible impact of the Japan tragedy, let's not forget that they are biggest suppliers of electronic components in the world, the high unemployment rate in the US, the terrific debt that the US carries which continues to grow....I can't think of another reason. Buyers know that the prices will continue to go down, so unless they have to buy they are going to wait for prices to reach bottom, and they haven't yet. Low interest rates are not going to do it, there is too much uncertainty, and elections are just around the corner.
- Kevin Olson, Jessica Laude, "Higher Living Team"
- Contributions:1954
I think it might be common sense. There is a whole load of bank inventory that hasn't been released, and none of us know how or when that is going to come. It's another price drop on the horizon, and I wouldn't want to buy a house right now unless I felt right about it. It's the same thing for sellers... unless they are pricing the home low from the start, it's tough to compete with so many bank owneds. It may be better to wait to sell. Each situation is different and should be treated as such.
- martin barber, "Peewee8"
- Contributions:4
In our area, the inventory is staggering. buyers have so much to choose from it baffles some buyers as to which one to pick. a good agent has to help their buyers narrow down to their specific needs. rates, values, etc are also factors.
- Colorado Expert Jeff Hansen, Realtor, "jeffhansencolorado"
- Contributions:105
So in what ways, as real estate brokers, are you handling this with buyers? What i have been doing is I continually send out reports on the particular areas my investors are interested in and show them that the inventories are dropping and prices have started to rebound in those particular neighborhoods. My investors are only interested in those areas anyway, right? We avoid the bad areas in terms of resale and focus on the recovery areas. Each state has neighborhoods that will(or are currently) recovering faster than others. Go find them and make them your focus. It is my way of being proactive to a down market. It gives my investors insight of the better areas and motivates them to strike while the iron is hot!
- SteadyState
- Contributions:787
In many areas prices are unsustainable:
1. The net monthly expenses to buy a home are 3X to 4X monthly rents
2. Home prices are still inflated in many markets - greater than 4X median income.
3. Unstable economy, state budget mess, etc.
4. Too high closing costs (commission, title, loan fees, etc.)
5. Too high inventory and increasingly tighter credit standards.
All of these tell me not to buy. What do they tell you?
1. The net monthly expenses to buy a home are 3X to 4X monthly rents
2. Home prices are still inflated in many markets - greater than 4X median income.
3. Unstable economy, state budget mess, etc.
4. Too high closing costs (commission, title, loan fees, etc.)
5. Too high inventory and increasingly tighter credit standards.
All of these tell me not to buy. What do they tell you?
- CulverCityRealtor
- Contributions:455
In my opinion, without the tax credit the motivation is not as strong. However, in my area there is still a strong interest in home purchase.
- Erik Johnson, "UpNorthAgent"
- Contributions:9
Sounds like doom and gloom for all here...people need to sell...there are buyers that want a home. If they have some stability and work with a good agent in their market they can find some fantastic values in all markets. With interest rates at 5 or below? You can make the case to move forward fairly easy again National press only depresses local markets as a whole. Take a few states out of the picture here and the glass is 1/2 full again..If you are scared to own a home buy income property great financing on owner occupied. I guess I am an optimist...the sun will rise tommorrow..
- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
My rent is the equivalent of financing $300K for a home. The homes for sale in the neighborhood I rent range from $450-$499, and those are the homes that are ok, a really nice one just sold for $525. I will have to spend close to $1K more a month to own a similar home.......what financial sense does that make? If it cost more to lease a car than to buy, would anyone lease? The only reason why anyone ever decides to buy is often financial.....when it is cheaper or the same to buy they buy because there is opportunity for financial growth. When home prices are stagnant and still falling, why would anyone decide to buy a home and potentially be underwater for the next 15yrs.......there will be no 10% per year gains anytime soon. If I were to buy I would essentially take $1K out of the economy......how is that allowing for any sustainable recovery???? If you want to save the US, don't buy a home and pay off your debts and live within your means.
- Colorado Expert Jeff Hansen, Realtor, "jeffhansencolorado"
- Contributions:105
I agree with Erik, Yes it is bad in some areas, don't sell those areas... yet. Sell in the areas where recovery is underway, then move into those other areas that are slow to recover. It takes extra work to find the areas that are back, but you need to work harder in a buyers market. Deals aren't falling from the sky, we need to go FIND them. The recovery WILL happen, pretty much everywhere, just not at the same time. But it will happen. Here's what I do. I check the jobs sites, find out who is hiring. I visit the company and talk with human resources. I find out what types of jobs and who's getting them. Find out which neighborhoods are effected by the most companies hiring and go from there. It is easy to track MLS data, takes real work to find out where the buyers are coming from. In a down market, you dig deeper, people HAVE TO move. I'm an optimist too. But that is because history always shows markets return. Find out where first.
- Colorado Expert Jeff Hansen, Realtor, "jeffhansencolorado"
- Contributions:105
Lady Chattel, You don't truly believe that we will be underwater for the next 15 years do you? My guess is one, two, maybe three years if we are really unlucky for us to back in a normal market where we see modest gains overall. Some areas do worse than others and take longer. I would avoid those areas for the time being. Let's say that you bought a home in an area that the recovery is underway. Do the long term analysis on what your return would be on the money outlay. Taking leveraging into account, you stand to build quite a bit of equity. Paying off debt is a wise move and it will help America, it isn't enough, however. Ownership is key to a healthy country as well. That $1,000/month being taken out of the market is in fact going toward a bit of equity that will build over time in the home that you own. Renting builds only equity for your landlord. Contact me directly and I can run a long term model for you.
- Norm D Plume, "America Needs Nixon!"
- Contributions:1670
an agent with a plan: more rare than hens teeth.
(yes, that's a compliment Jeff)
(yes, that's a compliment Jeff)
- Colorado Expert Jeff Hansen, Realtor, "jeffhansencolorado"
- Contributions:105
I took it that way, Norm! Plus you got a laugh out of it! Never heard the Hens Teeth reference before, excellent work, sir!
- Dunes....
- Contributions:3894
Majority of people who could Buy IMO just simply feel they will Build that equity Faster and at a Lower cost with less RISK if they wait....
They do not believe the "Expertise" of RE Agents...
Everyone hasn't been off planet the last few years
IMO what the Knowledgeable RE Agents often encounter is even if/when their take/expertise is valid so many many other Agents have been Blowing Smoke about "Bottoms" "Rates will the sky is falling" "Recovery" "Prices are going up" Foreclosures running out" ect. for the last few years people lump all Agents into the Smoke-Blowing category..
The "Expertise" is pretty much doubted and often with good cause..Credibility is important and right or wrong RE Agents have little with the General Public.....
Many RE Agents worked hard to Earn that Lack of Credibility for their Industry & IMO did much much more damage to the Industries Credibility than "Doom & Gloomers" or anyone else
A we have met the enemy and it is us kinda scenario...The Boy who cried Wolf..
The villagers just don't believe anymore..
Plus Recovery? Talking about having a "Recovery" in process is not the same as a "Recovery" is actually happening....Many don't believe we are in a "Recovery" mode..they believe it is just more Smoke
They do not believe the "Expertise" of RE Agents...
Everyone hasn't been off planet the last few years
IMO what the Knowledgeable RE Agents often encounter is even if/when their take/expertise is valid so many many other Agents have been Blowing Smoke about "Bottoms" "Rates will the sky is falling" "Recovery" "Prices are going up" Foreclosures running out" ect. for the last few years people lump all Agents into the Smoke-Blowing category..
The "Expertise" is pretty much doubted and often with good cause..Credibility is important and right or wrong RE Agents have little with the General Public.....
Many RE Agents worked hard to Earn that Lack of Credibility for their Industry & IMO did much much more damage to the Industries Credibility than "Doom & Gloomers" or anyone else
A we have met the enemy and it is us kinda scenario...The Boy who cried Wolf..
The villagers just don't believe anymore..
Plus Recovery? Talking about having a "Recovery" in process is not the same as a "Recovery" is actually happening....Many don't believe we are in a "Recovery" mode..they believe it is just more Smoke
- nacho59
- Contributions:101
ooops
- nacho59
- Contributions:101
L Chattel said
My rent is the equivalent of financing $300K for a home. The homes for sale in the neighborhood I rent range from $450-$499, and those are the homes that are ok, a really nice one just sold for $525. I will have to spend close to $1K more a month to own a similar home.......what financial sense does that make?
Add to that other expenses like maintenance fees, taxes, insurance...
My rent is the equivalent of financing $300K for a home. The homes for sale in the neighborhood I rent range from $450-$499, and those are the homes that are ok, a really nice one just sold for $525. I will have to spend close to $1K more a month to own a similar home.......what financial sense does that make?
Add to that other expenses like maintenance fees, taxes, insurance...
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
Does this question really need to be asked?
1) Homes are overpriced. Not all buyers recognize this, but their income levels make the aggregate purchasability weak and thus not able to buy everything on the market.
2) Home prices are falling. Despite 1.5 years of bribes from the govt to get suckers into the market which subsequently blew air back into the bubble, that bubble is once again deflating. The bubble implosion continues, and some buyers do not want to pay $300k today for something that will be $250k down the road. Housing is still risky.
3) Any reason you give about why this is a great market could have been said three years ago. I heard it all the time from clueless agents: low rates, low prices, high inventory/choices, etc. You people just don't get it. If somebody has avoided buying into the housing bubble while witnessing the greed and stupidity morph into an economy atomic bomb, why would they flippantly jump in today and be in relatively the same position as those that erred during the bubble?
1) Homes are overpriced. Not all buyers recognize this, but their income levels make the aggregate purchasability weak and thus not able to buy everything on the market.
2) Home prices are falling. Despite 1.5 years of bribes from the govt to get suckers into the market which subsequently blew air back into the bubble, that bubble is once again deflating. The bubble implosion continues, and some buyers do not want to pay $300k today for something that will be $250k down the road. Housing is still risky.
3) Any reason you give about why this is a great market could have been said three years ago. I heard it all the time from clueless agents: low rates, low prices, high inventory/choices, etc. You people just don't get it. If somebody has avoided buying into the housing bubble while witnessing the greed and stupidity morph into an economy atomic bomb, why would they flippantly jump in today and be in relatively the same position as those that erred during the bubble?
- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
Home prices: The double-dip is near
Then Robert Shiller, the Yale economist and co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes, dropped this bomb: "There's a substantial risk of home prices falling another 15%, 20% or 25%," he said.
...
"There will be differences by market, but generally, you may get a big discount by waiting a year [to buy]," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, who thinks the price drop will be closer to 10% or 15%.
...
Just to get that back to a normal ratio -- which we last saw in 1998 -- home prices would have to drop another 15%, according to Anthony Sanders, a director of Real Estate Entrepreneurship at George Mason University.
*********
Similar calls of 20%+ declines have been echoed recently by several other well respected economists (Shiff, Shilling, Roubini, etc.), and have even been backed by the Dallas Fed's own research/analysis. When the most optimistic projection is bouncing along the bottom for the foreseeable future (Karl Case), there's very little upside given the significant risk.
Then Robert Shiller, the Yale economist and co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes, dropped this bomb: "There's a substantial risk of home prices falling another 15%, 20% or 25%," he said.
...
"There will be differences by market, but generally, you may get a big discount by waiting a year [to buy]," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, who thinks the price drop will be closer to 10% or 15%.
...
Just to get that back to a normal ratio -- which we last saw in 1998 -- home prices would have to drop another 15%, according to Anthony Sanders, a director of Real Estate Entrepreneurship at George Mason University.
*********
Similar calls of 20%+ declines have been echoed recently by several other well respected economists (Shiff, Shilling, Roubini, etc.), and have even been backed by the Dallas Fed's own research/analysis. When the most optimistic projection is bouncing along the bottom for the foreseeable future (Karl Case), there's very little upside given the significant risk.
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
Jeff: "What i have been doing is I continually send out reports on the particular areas my investors are interested in and show them that the inventories are dropping and prices have started to rebound in those particular neighborhoods."
Fear tactics, how professional. Did you do the same thing back in 2005 and 2006 to urge your investors to buy?
Zillow - Littleton prices
Zillow estimate is down 12.8% from a year ago, down 5.4% from last quarter, and down 1.9% from last month.
Median sale price is down 12.8% from a year ago, down 26.4% from last quarter, and down 11.2% from last month.
Sale price per square foot is down 8.1% from a year ago, down 12.8% from last quarter, and down 8.3% from last month.
So that begs the question, how much do you cook the numbers and spin the data to wrongly depict prices are rising when they are not? Is that how you justify your commission, to bamboozle trusting clients with bogus information, letting them get burned so that you can score some quick profits?
Fear tactics, how professional. Did you do the same thing back in 2005 and 2006 to urge your investors to buy?
Zillow - Littleton prices
Zillow estimate is down 12.8% from a year ago, down 5.4% from last quarter, and down 1.9% from last month.
Median sale price is down 12.8% from a year ago, down 26.4% from last quarter, and down 11.2% from last month.
Sale price per square foot is down 8.1% from a year ago, down 12.8% from last quarter, and down 8.3% from last month.
So that begs the question, how much do you cook the numbers and spin the data to wrongly depict prices are rising when they are not? Is that how you justify your commission, to bamboozle trusting clients with bogus information, letting them get burned so that you can score some quick profits?
- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
from Fortune Magazine (3/29/11):
Why house prices will keep falling
And to Dunes point, for those who would like a second opinion for RE pros who claim their/your area is different, here is a forecast of 384 local markets from CNN Money:
Real Estate: Your local forecast
384 markets tracked
Why house prices will keep falling
And to Dunes point, for those who would like a second opinion for RE pros who claim their/your area is different, here is a forecast of 384 local markets from CNN Money:
Real Estate: Your local forecast
384 markets tracked
- Colorado Expert Jeff Hansen, Realtor, "jeffhansencolorado"
- Contributions:105
Well, I see that I am out manned. Optimism is outdated. I am a professional, I work hard for my people, I don't cook numbers, I continue to try to stay positive and proactive in every situation. I can clearly see that that makes me naive in many folks' eyes. I was looking to get a perspective on how long we may have to get through this, I have learned more than I bargained for. I see that this market has opened the eyes of many good brokers and, at the same time, made many bitter. It is one thing to criticize, another to slander. Continue the discussion, but let's not get personal.
- Dunes....
- Contributions:3894
You don't embark on a Major Financial Transaction or decision because you should be an Optimist..The Optimists are usually the one's selling or making a Profit from your decision
A lot of Optimistic Buyers got Foreclosed on or are doing Optimistic Loan Mods or Optimistically walking away from their Mortgage..
You invest or become involved in a Major Financial Transaction by doing your homework and trying to decide if it is wise to move forward...
You don't do it based on Optimism... You try to establish Realism
That's my opinion
A lot of Optimistic Buyers got Foreclosed on or are doing Optimistic Loan Mods or Optimistically walking away from their Mortgage..
You invest or become involved in a Major Financial Transaction by doing your homework and trying to decide if it is wise to move forward...
You don't do it based on Optimism... You try to establish Realism
That's my opinion
- klarek the realist
- Contributions:7044
Jeff: Well, I see that I am out manned. Optimism is outdated.
Honesty trumps b.s.
It is one thing to criticize, another to slander.
Well amidst tumbling numbers for your town, it would be a stretch of one's imagination if your comments about using selective data to convince people to buy doesn't translate into conning them. You can use anecdotal evidence and statistics to prove anything, but you're doing a disservice to your clients if you're cherry-picking data to support an argument that's in your own self-interests.
Honesty trumps b.s.
It is one thing to criticize, another to slander.
Well amidst tumbling numbers for your town, it would be a stretch of one's imagination if your comments about using selective data to convince people to buy doesn't translate into conning them. You can use anecdotal evidence and statistics to prove anything, but you're doing a disservice to your clients if you're cherry-picking data to support an argument that's in your own self-interests.
- Sergio Hernandez, "Sergio Hernandez"
- Contributions:619
Fear!
Uncertainty!
Unstable job market!
Lack of confidence in the economy!
It may be one of the best buyers' market we've ever had, but what good is a great buyers' market if you buy today and lose your job tomorrow?
Uncertainty!
Unstable job market!
Lack of confidence in the economy!
It may be one of the best buyers' market we've ever had, but what good is a great buyers' market if you buy today and lose your job tomorrow?
To dispel a couple of Jeff's other myths:
1. ownership is key to a healthy America. MORE complete and utter BS. Consider Germany: home ownership is and has nearly always been less than 50% of the population. Notice how their economy is kicking tail while ours lumbers along? worldwide home ownership rates: a perspective. linky
2. Optimism. Well, if only predicting what you want to see happen counts as optimistic, I'm curious what do you think of weather forecast? When they forecast rain is it because that particular meteorologist is inferior to you, and is a grumpy pessimist? Do you take your family on picnic trips when the forecast is tornadoes because "hey you are an optimistic guy?"
1. ownership is key to a healthy America. MORE complete and utter BS. Consider Germany: home ownership is and has nearly always been less than 50% of the population. Notice how their economy is kicking tail while ours lumbers along? worldwide home ownership rates: a perspective. linky
2. Optimism. Well, if only predicting what you want to see happen counts as optimistic, I'm curious what do you think of weather forecast? When they forecast rain is it because that particular meteorologist is inferior to you, and is a grumpy pessimist? Do you take your family on picnic trips when the forecast is tornadoes because "hey you are an optimistic guy?"
- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
When I plug my metrics into the NYT rent vs. buy calculator for the homes in my neighborhood, it will take roughly 15 years to be at a breaking even point.......again, my rent has not gone up in 4 years.....my neighbors who owns had his mortgage go up....you know, those pesky taxes.
1967 Median House Price $17,200 (3X incomes)
1967 Median Household Income $6,200
Peak Bubble Month/Year
2007 (March) Median House Price $262,600 (5X incomes)
2007 Median Household Income $52,000
My County
Median House Sales Price $448,300 (4X income)
Median Household Income $111,000
My household income is $200K.......but I don't feel the need to buy ANYTHING that is overpriced, unless it the last gallon of milk and I desperately need milk. I am not desperate to buy a house, I live in a 4,000 sq ft 5/4 SFH in a nice burb........I get all the benefits of this area, without the added costs.
So, armed with this info oh wise REAs......please explain why I shouldn't be hesitant???
1967 Median House Price $17,200 (3X incomes)
1967 Median Household Income $6,200
Peak Bubble Month/Year
2007 (March) Median House Price $262,600 (5X incomes)
2007 Median Household Income $52,000
My County
Median House Sales Price $448,300 (4X income)
Median Household Income $111,000
My household income is $200K.......but I don't feel the need to buy ANYTHING that is overpriced, unless it the last gallon of milk and I desperately need milk. I am not desperate to buy a house, I live in a 4,000 sq ft 5/4 SFH in a nice burb........I get all the benefits of this area, without the added costs.
So, armed with this info oh wise REAs......please explain why I shouldn't be hesitant???
- SteadyState
- Contributions:787
To further provide evidence of absurd bubble pricing. Here are three cities in CA with the data for 2010.
Saratoga, CA
Median Sale Price: $1.2M-----Median Income: $140K => 8.5 times income
Cupertino, CA
Median Sale Price: $950K-----Median Income: $100K => 9.5 times income
Sunnyvale, CA
Median Sale Price: $571K-----Median Income: $75K => 7.6 times income
I have been happily paying $2900 per month for our home for the last 5 years (we sold our home in 2005). The rent has only gone up from $2700/month to $2900/month over the last 5 years. I will continue to rent till the prices approach market sustainable levels - at or below 4X income. If the prices never reach that level I rather pay rent to a fellow citizen from the community than to some banker who may be in another state!
Saratoga, CA
Median Sale Price: $1.2M-----Median Income: $140K => 8.5 times income
Cupertino, CA
Median Sale Price: $950K-----Median Income: $100K => 9.5 times income
Sunnyvale, CA
Median Sale Price: $571K-----Median Income: $75K => 7.6 times income
I have been happily paying $2900 per month for our home for the last 5 years (we sold our home in 2005). The rent has only gone up from $2700/month to $2900/month over the last 5 years. I will continue to rent till the prices approach market sustainable levels - at or below 4X income. If the prices never reach that level I rather pay rent to a fellow citizen from the community than to some banker who may be in another state!
What is the key reason for buyers to hesitate in this market?
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