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- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4681
Several years from now. Maybe by 2014 or 2016 prices overall nationwide will begin to improve if the economy has also improved by then. The massive overhand of inventory has to be removed first.
- Jason Ripke, "JasonRipke"
- Contributions:18
Article shows where housing markets will be strongest by 2014. Can also be found at here at Team Ripke Realty...
The "experts" in that article state Seattle area could see 25-30%+ by 2014 over 2010 prices.
Hope this helps.
For a free buyers or sellers guide contact TeamRipke@windermere.com
The "experts" in that article state Seattle area could see 25-30%+ by 2014 over 2010 prices.
Hope this helps.
For a free buyers or sellers guide contact TeamRipke@windermere.com
- Steve Morris, "SteveCMorris"
- Contributions:28
Masterbuni,
Housing prices will increas when the jobs come back. Depending on the price range it maybe sooner. We have seen an increas in the first time home buyer range. So if you are in that market now is the time.
Steve Morris, Realtor
Century 21 North Homes
[self-promotional post, removed by moderator]
Housing prices will increas when the jobs come back. Depending on the price range it maybe sooner. We have seen an increas in the first time home buyer range. So if you are in that market now is the time.
Steve Morris, Realtor
Century 21 North Homes
[self-promotional post, removed by moderator]
- when did i get marri
- Contributions:4
As soon as the economy get better housing price will increase again. Until then the housing market will stay as it is. I watch the real-estate market very closely because I am looking for good deal to invest.
- NTETS, "Mr Caveat"
- Contributions:6436
Spring 2010 we should start seeing the normal 3-5% in the spring.
hardly
hardly
- Mack McCoy
- Contributions:1103
You see it, after the fact, as the stats get compiled and reported.
The Case-Shiller index is three months behind; their most recent report, released in late September, was dated July.
The Case-Shiller index is three months behind; their most recent report, released in late September, was dated July.
- Paul Klenk, "Paul K Olympia Agent"
- Contributions:503
Spring 2010 we should start seeing the normal 3-5% in the spring.
- NTETS, "Mr Caveat"
- Contributions:6436
once the prices stabalize, long term appreciation will be a long ways off... short term you might see a couple of positive bounces this year, although the markets will probably still be negative yoy for another 2 years at least
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25115
I don't know about your area, but I am stunned at the prices being asked right now for the early listings in my area. They look like last year's prices. We will see what happens as the new listing come on in the spring. An asking price obviously isn't a sale. Would be nice though to see a glimmer of hope.
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4386
"especially with the demand that is built up and financing being the limiting factor.", Our government now do just that, They keep pump the money into the financial institution, untill that money go out to the people ( the banks still want to make money ).
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4386
Hi rjon.101
"what will happen to house pricing now if unemployment across the US goes to 12.5 % or 13% ?"
There is will be the answer, however it's not the absolutely answer, because it still is "what if".
Massive unemployment -> less demand -> home's value drop -> less build -> more job lost -> people still find some way to make the living -> rental's price up because of more demand for the housing from people, who lost their house -> good time for investment -> house's value up -> more building -> more job -> over build -> drop demand -> massive unemployment
and therefore it keep turn around like the waves in the ocean, keep go up and down, the peoples with strong mind will survive.
"what will happen to house pricing now if unemployment across the US goes to 12.5 % or 13% ?"
There is will be the answer, however it's not the absolutely answer, because it still is "what if".
Massive unemployment -> less demand -> home's value drop -> less build -> more job lost -> people still find some way to make the living -> rental's price up because of more demand for the housing from people, who lost their house -> good time for investment -> house's value up -> more building -> more job -> over build -> drop demand -> massive unemployment
and therefore it keep turn around like the waves in the ocean, keep go up and down, the peoples with strong mind will survive.
- rjon.101
- Contributions:201
HOANGCHAUPHAN
thanks for the insight. I would have thought the earthquak increased demand not decreased it. Rental priceing did increase in my area after the 94 quake. However, maybe no one wanted to own a house that was going to slide into the pacific. Good point. What is strange is the national median pricing does not show a decline at all even during the recession that cost Bush Sr the election. It was not a nice recession . I remember in the 1990s everyone I knew decided to leave CA due to the economy.
You have raised a good point (maybe this is not what you meant but let me run with it) what will happen to house pricing now if unemployment across the US goes to 12.5 % or 13% do prices continue to decline , stay stable or increase from today's levels, and why?especially with the demand that is built up and financing being the limiting factor.
thanks for the insight. I would have thought the earthquak increased demand not decreased it. Rental priceing did increase in my area after the 94 quake. However, maybe no one wanted to own a house that was going to slide into the pacific. Good point. What is strange is the national median pricing does not show a decline at all even during the recession that cost Bush Sr the election. It was not a nice recession . I remember in the 1990s everyone I knew decided to leave CA due to the economy.
You have raised a good point (maybe this is not what you meant but let me run with it) what will happen to house pricing now if unemployment across the US goes to 12.5 % or 13% do prices continue to decline , stay stable or increase from today's levels, and why?especially with the demand that is built up and financing being the limiting factor.
- rjon.101
- Contributions:201
note on the data I used from 1989 to 1999 is based on the standard financing of the 90s where most sales were 20% down and high leverage was a 3% downpayment and the radical loan limit of 3 X yearly earnings was the limit along with good credit
in the 1930 period real estate did not severly go bust (it did decrease a lot and the Fed Gov stepped in )because a radical real estate loan from the 1920s was a 50% loan for 5 years with 50% down ) not 0% down and 6 to 8 times earnings as seen in 2004 -06.
This boom bust cycle is dealing with 50% price decreases so far in areas due to the fuzzy loans made allowing pricing to be pushed up so high. And those fuzzy loans are going away or are gone maybe for about 20 years. So the present downcycle will vary a bit from the last 1989 to 1999 cycle.
in the 1930 period real estate did not severly go bust (it did decrease a lot and the Fed Gov stepped in )because a radical real estate loan from the 1920s was a 50% loan for 5 years with 50% down ) not 0% down and 6 to 8 times earnings as seen in 2004 -06.
This boom bust cycle is dealing with 50% price decreases so far in areas due to the fuzzy loans made allowing pricing to be pushed up so high. And those fuzzy loans are going away or are gone maybe for about 20 years. So the present downcycle will vary a bit from the last 1989 to 1999 cycle.
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4386
and CA's unemployment at that time is more than 12% VS 10.5% for today.
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4386
Hi rjon.101
You have the good data, however, CA real estate's market take recovers that long is part of 1994 earthquake.
You have the good data, however, CA real estate's market take recovers that long is part of 1994 earthquake.
- rjon.101
- Contributions:201
look at this web site by the CAR
http://www.realestateabc.com/graphs/calmedian.htm
according to the historical data pricing can keep going down for another 6 years.
and take another 10 years to return to the peak values
In the 1989-1991 peak after the boom of the 1980 s the California median priced home was $200,000. The median price then decreased until in 1996 it was $177,000 . In 1997 pricing started to increase and did so yearly until in 1999 when it finaly returned to the $200,000 level last seen in 1989-91. The pricing did not double from the 1989 level until 2004 when it finaly hit the $400,000 level. (Note this is CAR data that every real estate agent in California should be knowledgable of) So if you bought a house in 1989 for $200,000 you then watched it decrease until 1996 and were upside down and would have had to sell at a loss anytime from 1989 until 1999 when the median reached $217,000 and the $17,000 extra could cover the cost to sell .
I live on the coast and watched the price swings during this time period and they were much more severe % wise, both up and down, but the time frame was the same. and except for a few elite areas the end result was the same if you bought in 1989 you would be upside down until 1999 and only doubled value from the 1989 values 15 years later in 2004
This is what - could - happen based on the past boom bust cycle
http://www.realestateabc.com/graphs/calmedian.htm
according to the historical data pricing can keep going down for another 6 years.
and take another 10 years to return to the peak values
In the 1989-1991 peak after the boom of the 1980 s the California median priced home was $200,000. The median price then decreased until in 1996 it was $177,000 . In 1997 pricing started to increase and did so yearly until in 1999 when it finaly returned to the $200,000 level last seen in 1989-91. The pricing did not double from the 1989 level until 2004 when it finaly hit the $400,000 level. (Note this is CAR data that every real estate agent in California should be knowledgable of) So if you bought a house in 1989 for $200,000 you then watched it decrease until 1996 and were upside down and would have had to sell at a loss anytime from 1989 until 1999 when the median reached $217,000 and the $17,000 extra could cover the cost to sell .
I live on the coast and watched the price swings during this time period and they were much more severe % wise, both up and down, but the time frame was the same. and except for a few elite areas the end result was the same if you bought in 1989 you would be upside down until 1999 and only doubled value from the 1989 values 15 years later in 2004
This is what - could - happen based on the past boom bust cycle
- Geordy Rostad, "geordy"
- Contributions:991
I'm noticing a lot of sales activity in my area too. I just ran sales in downtown Bellevue and 12 homes over $1,000,000 have gone under contract since March 1st. I was also at a new plat in Lynnwood on the low $300k range of about 40 homes where half have already sold out and 3 more are expected to go over the weekend.
- Dave Griswold/ Lisa Payne-Griswold, "U R Home Realty"
- Contributions:204
Homes are going slightly up in my area, also more homes are now under contract then in the last few months.
- titan10
- Contributions:826
no underwriting isnt good for the banks. Govt needs to get out of the way, not get us back in the same mess.
- Pat Bourgo, "Pat Bourgo"
- Contributions:1051
The feds need to position them selfs to force the banks to start cutting loose with the money. Triple underwriting isn't good for the buyers.
- Connie Wildasinn, "Connie Wildasin"
- Contributions:1178
not untill the income levels rise, debt ratios get back in line and there is reason to rise... we are headed down to sideways for some time to come... but there are deals and money to be made in ALL markets... you just have to know how to play... and buy right...
- titan10
- Contributions:826
never see a bubble again??? Bubbles are part of life. They are guaranteed to happen again. I was just asking my mom about a house my parents bought in the 80's. It was a no doc 0 down loan!!! Sound familliar?
- Tad Navle, "tadnavle"
- Contributions:74
You know, the hardest part of of picking the bottom of the market will be your hand hitting your head when you realize that prices have already started to move up.
This is the classic response - You will see home values increase - wait - "after they have hit bottom".
For Buyers - buy a home now that you want, like and can call home. Time will fix market fluctuations.
Sellers - if you are upside down in value and NEED to sell - then realize that maybe you will take a loss on your property but make it up by purchasing a property on discount.
Home values will increase again. Late 80's California market took a HUGE hit - mid 90's prices had almost doubled from the previous high.
This is the classic response - You will see home values increase - wait - "after they have hit bottom".
For Buyers - buy a home now that you want, like and can call home. Time will fix market fluctuations.
Sellers - if you are upside down in value and NEED to sell - then realize that maybe you will take a loss on your property but make it up by purchasing a property on discount.
Home values will increase again. Late 80's California market took a HUGE hit - mid 90's prices had almost doubled from the previous high.
- Nathan Wolf, "natewolf"
- Contributions:1825
It depends on the banks. They have the ability RIGHT NOW to stop the mess. But they are horrible to have to deal with to get an answer on modifications. So, with help from Freddie Mac their decision making process is being streamlined. But this only helps for loans guaranteed through their loan program.
Most loans could be modified right now. If there's an adjustable rate.... lock it in at the low rate. How simple is that?
As for the time involved for increasing homevalues? It depends where you are located. What the longterm job outlook is in your area.
Since everyone is seemingly in the same boat, then sellers will continue to sell and buyers will continue to buy-- but the problem currently is that the buyers cannot buy because their loans are being stalled.
- Jo Shaner, "JoKnows"
- Contributions:12
In my area right now, the first time homebuyer is king! This is allowing that starter home seller to move up - as long as the 1st timer isn't buying a foreclosure. As in the past, it is a food chain.
The guy with the gold still rules. He the one that will make the money in the end - hear of buy low, sell high. So, when the economy lags - that's when you should buy. When it is rocking and rolling - sell.
I have survived many peaks and valleys and it always comes back around. You know 2008 was the 6 best year in sales according to NAR. They have been keeping records over 100 years! We just got a little spoiled. Be patient and hook up with a savvy Realtor in your area. They can navigate you through this.
- Yazen
- Contributions:1
Mantua, Fairfax - new homes are all in the million and above range. It is amazing how many are selling. I know there is a recession, but where is it?
- Maria Morton, "MariaMorton"
- Contributions:716
I think it depends on your specific location. Some experts are predicting 3-5 years for recovery in the harder hit areas of the country while there are areas that are expected to recover by the end of this year. Our inventory in the Greater Metropolitan Kansas City Area is down 8-10% from 1 year ago so it is reasonable to expect prices to level and rise as the inventory goes down. Will that happen soon? I don't know. I do know there are a bunch of FNMA foreclosures due to hit the market sometime next month. How will that affect our property values? Well, these aren't very nice houses so mostly they will be bought up by investors but investors have been busy buying for months now. I'm also seeing more buyers wanting to buy now. More buyers means less inventory but then I know of several people who intend to put their home on the market in February and March which means we'll have more inventory. I am just as excited as everyone else to see which way we end up by the end of the year.
- jimmy57
- Contributions:1511
"It feels like everyone is holding their breath to see what Obama will do.."
Any government programs to modify loans or change bankruptcy laws will not improve the prospects for future appreciation; they will in fact serve to delay the recovery by allowing unqualified "homeowners" to remain in the market. As a potential buyer, I am staying out until I see that prices are being allowed to establish themselves naturally. I don't see how anything gets resolved by preventing foreclosures.
Any government programs to modify loans or change bankruptcy laws will not improve the prospects for future appreciation; they will in fact serve to delay the recovery by allowing unqualified "homeowners" to remain in the market. As a potential buyer, I am staying out until I see that prices are being allowed to establish themselves naturally. I don't see how anything gets resolved by preventing foreclosures.
- Laura Bock, "laura bock"
- Contributions:134
I think that the next 90 days will give us a clue as to how much longer until the bottom. I agree that there are still a lot of people in mortgage danger, but also that there are more options available and on the way. It feels like everyone is holding their breath to see what Obama will do, and then will make their decisions based on that.
- Jeff Konstant, "jkonstant"
- Contributions:1970
Six months after we hit bottom. Then it will be a long climb back to 2005 values. I believe we are at least two years, maybe three away from bottom and longer if the economy does not show real and sustained improvement by then.
I see it this way. If the last of the bad 5 yr arm loans were made in 2006, then 2011 will see the them reset extending losses into 2012.
To make matters worse and use simple math if you lost 20% of what you paid by the time it bottoms, you could be another 5-8 years away from break even.
When do you see the home values increasing again?
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