When will Calif Housing rebound?

Although the steep decline of home prices in California ended in spring 2009, the weakness in the housing market after the expiration of federal tax credits for home buyers last year has led to some speculation as to whether the recovery is sustainable.  The chief economist for the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, was asked to provide her view on the state of real estate and what she thinks is needed to get the housing market moving again.
In terms of home prices, the experts differed slightly with the majority predicting that home prices will remain flat throughout 2011.  Ms. Appleton-Young predicts home prices will rise 2 percent this year, while another foreclosure expert predicts housing prices to decline 5 percent in 2011.

According to the CAR, there is little chance of home prices returning to their previous peak levels anytime soon.  "We are in a slow-moving recovery with prices stabilized at the moderate and low end," she said.  "We are still seeing price attrition and price softening at the upper ends of the market."

In my opinion, right now is the best time to buy. Housing prices are low and interest rates are low. What a great combination. ~ Barry Ripp

  • January 12 2011 - Fremont
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Answers (12)

Real estate has always been reginal.  Some areas have rebounded while others will take much longer to rebound.  Right now is the most opportune time to be a buyer .....prices are so low and interest rates are excellent.  Now is the time to act and take advantage of tax advantages of home ownership !
  • January 12 2011
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I like how you just copy your blog and put it in Zillows advice column.....

  • January 12 2011
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Profile picture for Mills Realty
Don't you believe there is more to buying a home than low prices and low interest rates?
  • January 12 2011
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Profile picture for the_country_hick
Nar has been saying that house prices would go up every year since... well, at least since they started to fall in 2006.

LINKY <-- nar ad saying the same thing in 2006.

If I had the power I could destroy housing values once more. All I would need to do is increase interest rates by 2%. That would remove 23.7% of buying power (from 5% to 7%) and house prices would plummet. Just imagine what hyper-inflation could do if peoples incomes do not rise much but interest rates go up like a rocket.

Going from 4.25% to 15% interest rates cuts down buying power by 61%.
(30 year fixed rate money only cost)
A $100,000 mortgage at 4.25% costs $491.94 a month.(had it for awhile)
$493.88 at 5.00% buys a $92,000 mortgage (close if not there)
$492.57 at 6.25% buys a $80,000 mortgage
at 15% interest $493.13 only gets a $39,000 mortgage.


Who does not expect interest rates to rise? That is very dangerous for house prices when it does happen. Even poor and middle income people feel the costs of financing increase when it happens.
  • January 12 2011
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"prices might drop, but it is the best time to buy..." does this = I AM STUPID in your language?
  • January 12 2011
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Profile picture for Dunes....
Barry....

If your gonna cut & paste what other people wrote then ya should give THEM the Credit for writing it...Others did

Link & Link & Link & Link 
Heck just look at what comes up if you google what you seem to wish people to believe You wrote...Google Search


Hard to believe you don't already know this...
  • January 12 2011
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Honestly, just stealing others verbiage, putting it on your website, blog and then Zillows advice, is a waste. I wish Zillow had a policy on ORIGINAL content for this column.
  • January 12 2011
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Profile picture for sunnyview
Ridiculous post. Unfortunately, I see no insight from someone who is a native resident of Fremont who should have an intimate understanding of that market.
  • January 12 2011
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There is no magic answer of when the CA housing market will rebound. Home values can be very neighborhood specific. If you're interested in knowing the current trend for your neighborhood (buyers, sellers and curious parties), contact a good Realtor. Your personal Realtor can keep you apprised of the most current pricing trends for a specific neighborhood at any given time.
  • January 12 2011
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Profile picture for SoCal Engr
"California" is way to big a scope to discuss. For that matter, so is "San Diego County". This is not a very well-formed/scoped question.
  • January 12 2011
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The last time California has seen deep declines was about Novemeber/December of 2008... Ever since then it has just been a wavy flat line and actually an increase from that point forward...

Source: DataQuick News
  • January 12 2011
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Profile picture for jimmy57
Forget about a "rebound," if by that you mean a re-inflation of the bubble. Prices are resetting to levels that are in line with incomes, and when interest rates are allowed to rise, a given payment will support a smaller loan -  and prices will be driven down even more.

In the last 4 years of listening to Realtors say "it's a good time to buy," I've watched house values in my area fall 50% or more.  All independent analysis that I see makes the reasoned case that 2011 is a good year to keep leasing.  All signs point to my landlord losing equity faster than I will pay him rent -- not even counting the taxes, insurance, HOA and upkeep.

As for the "real estate is local" lines...  Realtors: we don't need you to tell us about local pricing trends -- we can see transaction records right here on Zillow.
  • January 22 2011
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