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I think there is an easy answer:
Houses will return to their Historic Prices and then will stay there and increase at the same rate as inflation.
If your areas saw job growth or losses, (or something else like being in a hurricane area) it will be higher or lower than historic.
Bottom Line: The appreciation growth of 2000-2006 was manipulated and unsustainable, markets find their real equilibrium naturally.
The housing bubble took years to inflate prices to unsustainable levels. It will take years for the housing market to sink back down to reality. Through a combination of falling prices and stagnant prices (while inflation chips away at the real value) the value of residential real estate will continue to sink for years to come.
You can see when the values will start going up when inventories decrease and demand increases. Many factors go into these numbers, but the market is about supply and demand. The way to create demand for your house is to increase the perception of its value. Today, it's all about price. If your home presents the best value in your neighborhood, it will sell and at the best price any home will sell for. If the buyers do not perceive the value, it will not sell. We have multiple offers occurring on the properties that are perceived as great deals in my area of Eagle Rock and Northeast Los Angeles, CA.
"Houses will return to their Historic Prices and then will stay there and increase at the same rate as inflation."
Their levels will be historic, most definitely. They'll fall to fundamentally supported levels. If freddy/fannie survive, which they won't, that means somewhere between the 2000/2002 price levels.
Fannie and Freddie will get bailed out. You doomers are taking their fall way too seriously.
Glad someone brought up Fannie and Freddie. Just read that the admin is considering a proposal to have the gov't take over 1 or both agencies. That sounds like a nightmare, we see how inefficient govt run programs are already, IRS, education, etc, can you imagine having mortgage lending fall into the same abyss of govt beauracracy??? Does this fear make me a doomer?? :)
"Does this fear make me a doomer?"
No, it makes you a realist=)
Seriously, I do not know much about the mortgage industry at all. Anytime that I hear the govt is taking over something I never have positive thoughts about it. Just wondering if I should feel justified in my doubts about a the benefits of a gov't take over as it is being kicked around in the media.
Government intervention is not that bad. How many hijackings have we had since the governent took over airport security after the 9/11 attacks???
Alpine is an idiot!
According to my crystal ball, housing will rebound after it hits bottom!
Ahh, but that's the real question - when will the housing crisis hit bottom? No one knows. Speculations range anywhere from 2009 to 2012. There are a lot more factors that will be coming into play over the next few years. Primary among them is there are still a lot of adjustable rate mortgages due for a reset over the next few years. And, many of these people are probably already upside down - meaning they won't be able to refinance. You can expect even more foreclosures in the next few years unless Congress and the banks find a workable solution.
Forget more foreclosures next year, they are happening now, faster than ever.
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When will real estate rebound??
Deamstir
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My house has lost $10,500.00 in value over the last 30 days according to zillow. I know that nobody holds the crystal ball but can I expect that the value will start on the upswing again within months/years??
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