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When will the real estate market bounce back up? What are some good links to do more research?

  • April 20 2011 - Riverside
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Profile picture for the_country_hick
  • April 20 2011
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If you are looking at the California market as a whole, then reports produced by economists like Case/Shiller and alike are good sources for analyzing data and trends. 

If you are looking at specific or local markets,  take note that often times, these reports incorporate many different (sometimes opposing) areas and sub-markets into a broad analysis.  You would need to filter out the specifics you are searching for in that situation.

As an example, when Case/Shiller reports on the San Francisco Metropolitan Area, it's usually composed of 5 counties with dramatically different markets.  One market may not be indicative of another. 

 
  • April 20 2011
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Profile picture for BigMoneyMagnet
  • April 20 2011
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Profile picture for Blue Nile
All of California was "bubble priced" due to bad Federal housing and lending practices.  It has to "correct" to the normal inflation curve.  It cannot "bounce" back to anything as there is nothing for it to bounce to.

Sure, bubbles occur at various times throughout history in different market sectors.  Witness gasoline for example.  Or gold.

The last "housing bubble" in California was in the late 1980's.  But it was nothing like the present bubble that is still deflating.

You are not going to see another bubble in U.S. housing for about 30 years.  It takes about that long for people to forget, and for more bad government policies to be set.

As for "good links", look at the "local info pages" on Zillow.  Check each of the trend charts offered, and download the data for your area of interest.  Use Excel to put an inflation curve on each of these from about 1997.  You will then be able to visualize how quickly the bubble is deflating to get close to the normal inflation curve.

Make sure you look at market saturation of foreclosures as well, and the turn-over rate of housing.  As long as the market is saturated with foreclosures, there will be downward pressure on housing prices.

  • April 20 2011
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Profile picture for sunnyview
I'm not sure bounce is what the market will do when it does recover. In many places in CA it needs to find it's footing first. There are charts that might be useful here

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/

and FHFA.gov also has some information available that might help.

  • April 20 2011
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Profile picture for hpvanc
I would suggest googling economist Robert Shiller and Karl Case of the Case Shiller Index.  They currently disagree about the market, and should give you lots of material to ponder.
  • April 20 2011
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No one really knows for sure.  Everything now is depending on the economy.  Lawrence Yun is the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.  You can google his name and find many articles on this topic.  Hope this helps.
  • April 20 2011
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Here is an article from October 2010 which may shed some light.

Are we there yet?


Oggi Kashi
Paragon Real Estate Group
CA DRE 01844627
  • April 20 2011
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There are a lot of different opinions on the matter. I think Riverside is probably going to be a good two or three years before we see any kind of meaningful appreciation in the marketplace. Realtytrac is always a good place to start.
  • April 20 2011
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