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When will you know that real estate has bottomed out? When it heads back up!

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Richard Goates, "LUX Real Estate Grp"

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Timing the bottom...I have heard a lot of people lately that want to "buy at the bottom". It is Impossible to time the exact bottom of the market.The best you can do is find the home that you love and get it now if you plan on holding it for 3+ years.Will it go down a little more? It probably will...but interest is going down shortly and the combination of finding your dream home shortly with interest at rates that haven't been seen before will make it a winning situation for anyone that wants to hold for the long run.

Why wait for it to be in the papers that real estate is back and compete with everyone else that has been "Waiting" also?

Real estate is like gas prices right now....only when you see it going back up will you know that the bottom just recently happened...

The smart money gets in Before it heads back up....

Rick
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December 17 2008 - Redding
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So buy now or be priced out forever?
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December 17 2008
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Richard Goates, "LUX Real Estate Grp"

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Start the process now if you have been thinking about buying and want to time it as close as you can...get the financing in order and ready to pull the trigger...unless you want to pay more later and have a higher interest rate?

When Interest dips down it won't be there forever...just like gas didn't stay forever at $1.55 in my city....it' s now up to $1.59 and heading back up...same story...different product!

If you look back at real estate in the long term picture you will find that real estate has ups and downs...but it always trends up...What do I mean about that? Well if you take any property anywhere....and look at the price of that property say 30 years ago you will see that is MUCH higher even now in what is called a Down market...Always trends up in the long run...

Happy Holidays you you!!

Rick
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December 17 2008
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Goates: "...but it always trends up..."

You lie.

Highlighted in red, periods of at least 50 years where real estate declined or was flat.  Now what do you think is in store for us over the next 50 years after the most monstrous housing price bubble the world has ever seen?


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December 17 2008
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Richard Goates, "LUX Real Estate Grp"

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Thanks for the great chart! As you can see from the chart todays price are much higher than 10/20/30 years ago...as I said it trends up...In other words your real estate prices will most always be higher versus 10/20/30/40 years ago...Period....Unless there is a toxic spill on it or the home had mold in it and was burned down etc.

Glad there are some people that can time exactly where the bottom is...there are always people that are a little smarter and people that are a little slower...and many that think they know it all...
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December 18 2008
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Richard Goates, "LUX Real Estate Grp"

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I appreciate your chart above...as everyone can see it doesn't matter where you have purchased in the past if you hold for the long term your values Will go up...Bought in 1890? look at the chart and see how much you made since then...bought in 1950? Look again and see how much HIGHER your home is valued....
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January 09
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Richard

What are your clients from 2005 telling you right now?  Was your sales pitch of if you hold for the long term sitting well with them now?

This is why the country is coming around to the notion that REA's are on the same level as car salesman.

Do not be surprised in two or three years when state AG's start slapping your "profession" around to the point that it makes Sarbanes Oxley look like a walk in the park

Kind Regards 
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January 09
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klarek the realist

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His 2005 clients are mailing their keys back to the bank.
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January 09
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Stop thinking of a house as an investment!  Would you buy a stock fund that over 50 years averaged a 4% return AND had yearly maintenace fees?  I sure wouldn't.  A home is a place to live.  Find one you like and buy but enough with the investment garbage. 
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January 09
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klarek the realist

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unorthodocs,

I don't think of a house as an investment, such as "how will this make me rich", but as a risk, such as "what are the chances I cannot sell this without taking a loss, or how poor will I be if I bought this?"

If it's eating up half of my takehome salary, I'm not going to blindly buy it, particularly in a declining market.  kthxbye
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January 09
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"Thanks for the great chart! As you can see from the chart todays price are much higher than 10/20/30 years ago...as I said it trends up...In other words your real estate prices will most always be higher versus 10/20/30/40 years ago..."

[content removed by moderator for being a personal insult] or that you think those reading your posts are stupid enough to fall for any of your garbage.  What the graph is showing is that over the last ten years, we experienced a bubble where prices became completely disconnected from incomes.  In very simplistic terms, people were buying houses they couldn't afford based on the expectation that prices would continue to increase forever.

Now that the bubble has burst, prices will return to historical levels with the potential to significantly undershoot to the downside as a result of current economic conditions.  At least in my mind, it becomes a question of why buy now when I can probably get the same house for 30% less a year or two from now.  What the house is worth ten years from now is somewhat irrelevant to me.  I acknowledge that no one (including myself) knows for sure what will happen in the future, but I sure have a lot of data that leads me to believe what I do.  I seems that the best that most Realtors can come up with is "prices always go up" or "you can't time the market."

You never answered the previous question regarding how clients who followed your advice and bought in 2005/2006 feel about that now or were you giving different advice back then.
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January 09
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A house should be a solid investment or you should put your money somewhere else for a greater return with more flexibility. I don't suggest that owning a house is a get rich scheme or a flip-a-thon for profit. I do think that if you buy a house well and wisely, you can enjoy a home and build long term financial security. Otherwise, why would you do it? I don't think that buying now makes good sense unless you really understand the market and the rick you are taking. I am not greedy. I don't need to "buy at the bottom" just like I didn't need to sell at the top, but this mess is still too unstable to call. I would advise against buying unless you can pay less to buy than you can to rent. Although that strategy is not perfect, it sure beats falling in love with a 30 year albatross that starts out underwater.
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January 09
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"I would advise against buying unless you can pay less to buy than you can to rent."

Even in a situation where it costs less to buy than rent, you still might be better off renting if you believe that prices will continue to decrease since, by renting, your landlord is assuming all risks associated with the potential for continued falling prices.  Realtors like to say that by renting, you're paying your landlords mortgage but you're also insulating yourself from losing money on the value of the home.
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January 09
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True. You are right observer. I do not suggest that people have no risk in buying in this market or that renting is not a viable solution to reduce risk. Traditionally, buying with a mortgage that equals PITI or less has worked because the market has slowly and steadily gone up over time. However, this is not a traditional market. I do not buy the standard "paying your landlords mortgage thing". I want the house the people buy to be a sound choice over the long term that pencils out. Is it possible that rents may go down along with the price of housing so a buyer must consider that in this market. I do not sell real estate for a living and I do not want people to buy now. I want them to do their research so when the opportunity to buy makes sense for them, they can buy if they want to without feeling pressed. Owning a house has worked well for me, but I would be lying if I said that I do not worry about prices in the future so I would never tell anybody that buying is the only or best option. If they decide to buy, I want them to decide based on economic reality with an eye on selling down the line.
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January 09
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"Thanks for the great chart! As you can see from the chart todays price are much higher than 10/20/30 years ago"

yeah sure but how much money people make back then and how much they are making now?
back then everything was leveled now its just crazy!!
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January 09
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The chart is great, but almost no seller that bought in 2006 will see their price again for a decade or more. A bubble is a bubble and when it pops the false value is gone not to return until the fundamental support it again.
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January 09
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Klarek,

You are exactly right.  I don't think I expressed my thoughts as well as I should have.  My point was that the NAR spin is that real estate always goes up and is such a sure thing that you would have to be a fool no to buy buy buy.  Its not a sure thing and this market proves it.  If anything if you view it as an investment you should view it as buying on margin a stock that historically goes up with inflation +1%.  Most folks would pass up on that investment.

That being said, I own a home and I am sure I am underwater but I like the home and I am OK with the terms.  I need a place to live and there are no rentals in my area that can match my choice of home with regards to my family.
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January 09
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klarek the realist

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Oh yeah, it's always played up as a "great investment".  Then during the boom times, it became a "cash machine".  Now of course they don't want us to see it as a dead depreciating weight that it is.
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January 09
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Richard Goates, "LUX Real Estate Grp"

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Thanks for the great comments guys.I can see some of you are probably going to be renters for a long time...that's great...your landlord appreciates that!

What are my clients thinking of this market that bought in 2005?? The same thing everyone is thinking....wow what mess we have...no one has a crystal ball...but if you put that funny little cigarette down for a minute and look at the chart again you will see that if you bought 10 or 15 years ago you are still sitting on equity...unless you were really brilliant and got an equity line or second and bought that new car or truck to impress your friends...

Real Estate should be considered a long term investment...If you bought in 2005 then you will have a couple years to break even...probably 2-3 in our area.

Regards

Rick
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January 09
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"Real estate is like gas prices right now....only when you see it going back up will you know that the bottom just recently happened..."

Suuure. We should have bought 30 year supply of gas at $4/gallon three month ago.
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January 09
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Richard,

I own my home yet I have a landlord called Bank of America.  I pay my landlord every month and if I don't he would evict me.  Now my uncle, Sam gives me some of my rent money back every April 15th but its sure not much.  In the end I pay 2 times the sticker price to own the house and it is illiquid.

I know you need commissions and most REA in my area are hurting and in many cases they are involved with  their own short sale or foreclosure problems but buying now is not a good option unless you really want a home and its in your budget.

My personal example:  I bought a home for my sister 11/06.  Paid 265k and it appraised for 290k.  I tried to refi this month and found it appraised for 180k.  Do you think 1) It will every go back to 265? 2) If it does how would my buying it on margin(loan) at 5.75 make it a good deal? 3) I also have to pay property tax and all the maintanence. 4) Would my giving her 1000/mo to rent a place be just throwing my money away given #1-3?
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January 09
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klarek the realist

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"I can see some of you are probably going to be renters for a long time...that's great...your landlord appreciates that!"

I'm renting a house for $1400/mo that my landlord paid $460k for, so suck on that.  That's probably the most annoying and condescending thing these pricks do is belittle renters.  It really is insulting.
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January 09
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Roberto Ribas, "azrob"

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Richard Coates, why don't you try READING some of the people who post on here, that are more intelligent/learned than you (most of them), rather than giving uninformed 'buy now' information?

Is it really too much to ask?

1. supply/demand. When supply is too high relative to demand, prices will drop. Since both of these are very easy to find, as in number of homes for sale compared to those closed over the last 30 days, compared to pendings,  this effect is easily measured. Historically, anything over six months is bad for prices going forward.
2. foreclosures/short sales. The six month rule came about during a time of low foreclosures, if foreclosures are running high, it might not save you now. ANYTHING over 10% of sales is very very bad for prices going forward.
3. notice of trustee sales. These predict foreclosures in the next several months, thus you don't have to 'guess' about what effect foreclosures will have.
4. local job growth. If your area is losing jobs, well people without jobs don't pay mortgages, or buy homes.
5. price/rent. If a home costs more than renting it would with 20% down, 30yr fixed financing, you are gambling on future price gains. You can do a more detailed analysis of scenarios with the New York Times rent versus buy calculator, but this is your quick and dirty check.
6. local state/city/county budgets. If they are cutting back, jobs will be lost, affecting number 4 above.

You now know 1,000 times as much about future home prices than your previous posts showed Richard.


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January 09
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Goats: "If you bought in 2005 then you will have a couple years to break even...probably 2-3 in our area."

I'd be excited to see the data you're basing this on, but of course you have none.

This is simply another lie told by a used house salesman.
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January 09
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"2005 then you will have a couple years to break even...probably 2-3 in our area"
so what you said in here is that the market would be flat right?
so why you want avery one to buy now?!?!?! commissshhhh!!!!! 
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January 09
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Rob it just amazes me how many people don't make the connection between unemployment/gov't budget/etc and house prices. If unemployment is supposed to exceed 10% nationally by the end of the year, I would guess it's not a great year to buy unless rent>buy by a fair margin or there is some other mitigating circumstance.
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January 09
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Imagine having a realtor like azrob recommending not buying and presenting all the market info and talking you out of buying.  That is what "professional" means.
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January 09
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Roberto Ribas, "azrob"

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Well, I'm at liberty to say honestly what I feel. By analyzing the market well, I bought multiple homes before the bubble, and sold before the peak. In addition, I'm a professor, so I don't really need any commissions.

In some parts of phoenix, prices are already below rental comparison values, so in those parts of town, I wouldn't be so strongly against buying today.
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January 09
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"Thanks for the great comments guys.I can see some of you are probably going to be renters for a long time...that's great...your landlord appreciates that!"

I wondered how long you'd take to get around to the standard Realtor response that the only reason someone would say it's not a good time to buy a house is because they're a bitter renter and they'll never be able to afford to buy.  I own a home now and have owned one or more homes continuously for the last 30 years.  I could easily buy ten homes for cash in most areas of the country.  My position regarding whether or not it's a good time to buy is based on an objective analysis of the available information and not biased by the fact that my income depends on people purchasing houses, even if it leads to financial disaster.

"What are my clients thinking of this market that bought in 2005?? The same thing everyone is thinking....wow what mess we have...no one has a crystal ball...but if you put that funny little cigarette down for a minute and look at the chart again you will see that if you bought 10 or 15 years ago you are still sitting on equity..."

Well I guess I must have a crystal ball since I and many of the individuals who have contributed to this discussion saw exactly what was going to happen as far back as 2005.  I think you might be the one with the funny cigarette since you seem to miss the fact that this discussion isn't about whether or not it made sense to buy a house 10 years ago, it's about whether or not it make sense today.
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4 Yes

January 09
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SoCal BubbleBrain

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I own a home too and agree it's a horrible time to buy. As usual, another lame used home salesman making ass-umptions that because we have a realistic view of the market, we are all doom and gloomers, bitter and renters. What a closed minded simpleton. Sheesh. It must also cause a burning sensation in their bunghole when it hits them, after reading the same thread 32 times, that there just might be some people out there that truly understand the market and are not their typical stupid sheeple clients they prey on.
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2 Yes

January 09
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Spleng..your lagging with the Photoshop job. Let's have it!
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2 Yes

January 09

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