Where is the Foreclosure Tsunami?

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There is supposed to be a flood of foreclosure inventory coming up. Where is it?
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August 31 2009 - Chula Vista
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Profile picture for lamaSr
"The interview with BOA's staff is base on real data from BOA."

Heh, heh.
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September 02 2009
Lewis Out As BofA Chairman
He'll stay CEO, but Kenneth Lewis has lost a referendum on his stewardship of the company.
Kenneth D. Lewis was stripped of his chairman title at Bank of America after a narrow victory by shareholders who pressed for the company to split the roles of chairman and chief executive.
http://www.forbes.com/200 ... date.html
Beside of He was stripped of his chairman title for his mistake when acquire of Countrywide Financial and Merrill Lynch, his comments was base on his opinions. The interview with BOA's staff is base on real data from BOA.
 
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September 01 2009
roflmao! The banks aren't stupid enough to crash the market prices, so they aren't listing them on the mls, BUT they are for sale on realtytrac.com and banks are selling them.

Congrats to Chula Vista Little League! I watched them return on tv last night (KUSI carried it live). They sure did awesome!
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September 01 2009
Profile picture for Mr Caveat
was it the worst slump in 16 years already by june, 2007
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September 01 2009
Profile picture for lamaSr
Bank of America (June 20, 2007):
The worst U.S. housing slump in 16 years will begin to ease in the next month or two, and job growth will lift home prices and spur construction early next year, Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis said.
``The drag stops in the next few months,'' Lewis said in an interview yesterday in New York. ``It's just about to be over. We're seeing the worst of it.'' . . .
``We do not see a recession,'' Lewis said. ``Because that drag stops, you'll see the economy begin to pick up in the third and fourth quarters.'

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aN64WudO99kM
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September 01 2009
Profile picture for Mr Caveat
Believe it or not, BoA is probably lying to you.

no, in all seriousness the "big" wave was always expected to start about 6 months into next year with "prime" loans... that tsunami should last 2-4 more years. remember that foreclosures will lag the actual resets by 6 months to a couple of years while people raid their 401ks and do anything possible to keep their homes...
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September 01 2009
Bank of America:
We do not hold foreclosed properties off the market. The vast majority of mortgages serviced by Bank of America are owned by third-party investors. We have an obligation to them to prepare foreclosed properties for market and sell them as efficiently as possible.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32630317
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September 01 2009
Profile picture for lamaSr
Looking at the Hope Now report from July, there were about 89,000 forclosures completed and more than 3 million mortgages more than 60 days past due in payments.  Of the 3 million, it's anyone's guess how many will go to foreclosure.  With over 10% unemployment in So Cal, I'd guess most will foreclose there.

'I'm without doubt there are many of shadow inventory of foreclosures in South CA.'
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September 01 2009
Be patient.  Banks have been reluctant to dump all of their REO inventory into fragile markets at once. 

Be assured that there will be at least two more waves of foreclosures that will dwarf the so-called "sub-prime crisis" that began three years ago.  Alt-A loans. Option ARMs, and Jumbo loans will eventually devastate many mortgage lenders through 2012 (or even later). 

Commercial properties are a whole other animal, and becoming more problematic by the day.  Don't even get me started on the damage that short sales will cause.

A few clues may be purchased here ...

http://ml-implode.com/

http://housingdoom.com/

your local MLS and ... oh yes ... here ...

http://www.zillow.com/


;-)
 
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August 31 2009
"basic economic rules apply..." why does every body who never studied economics quote basic economic rules?

Well, if it seems like such a good strategy, I suggest you do it yourself!
buy a bunch of homes at today's prices and let them sit empty for a few years, or generously let the folks who haven't paid their mortgages in a long time live there. Then sell them in a few years! You can profit from this theory right along with the banks!

Here are some theories based on actual economics training:

1. California passed new legislation, requiring more steps in the process. The banks have not staffed up to handle it yet.

2. They are trying to modify as many loans as possible, and lobbying to get more government money for modified loans.

3. the long announced PIPP program, where the banks sell their bad debts to the government is their hope; wait long enough, and dump all the non paying home loans onto the taxpayer.

Nevertheless, the rising delinquency rate on mortgages PROVES that these foreclosure homes are out there and coming.

shadow inventory
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August 31 2009
I don't think the $8k tax rebate has very affect on the Los Angeles market, it is 2.7% of average of LA home prices, while the people willing bid 10% over the asking prices in City of Los Angeles area, the ones who had 20% down payment also known how to do the simple math, and I'm doubt there are many of shadow inventory of foreclosures in South CA, since the shortage of foreclosures happened even before of CA moratorium.
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August 31 2009
Profile picture for chuckdog24
Jeff, Is there no foreclosure problem in your market? If so, that's great local news for you. One unanswered question that remains is how local markets will respond once the tax payer subsidies propping up the RE market run out.
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August 31 2009
Profile picture for Agent619
Where is the Foreclosure Tsunami? Apparently myself, my clients, my blog readers, and pretty much all of San Diego county is waiting for this flood of foreclosed homes to hit the market. I have not seen it.Earlier this year, there was a Federal mandate putting a stop to foreclosures for about 3 months, during the spring. When that ended, banks started processing foreclosures again. It usually takes about 3 months for them to go through the whole process. If we assume that the end of the foreclosure moratorium was May 31, then we should see inventories off foreclosed homes pop up about the middle of August 2009. Again, no such scenario.
Why you ask. I have a theory.A bank's primary purpose is the make money. If they are trying to liquidate their foreclosure property for maximum dollar, although highly discounted, why would the banks shoot themselves in the foot by flooding the real estate market. If foreclosure banks dumped all their property into the market, basic economic rules apply regarding the supply versus demand rule. If there are lots of supply in houses and the demand is still the same, then the current houses must compete for the same buyer supply of owners. If you double or triple the size of the inventory, then competition heats up and home prices are the only thing to differentiate homes from one another. In the end banks would get less money. Banks don't want that to happen.
Perhaps, the banks are slowly trickling in their foreclosure inventory into the housing market so that they can still maintain the current price competition and reduce their bad debt (foreclosed property) inventory. It's a theory of mine and since I don't work for a foreclosure bank, I don't have the reasoning of those people.Why else would banks not be unloading their foreclosure inventory? I invite your comment, insight, and opinion as always.
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August 31 2009
 

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QuestionWhere is the Foreclosure Tsunami?
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