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Answers (20)
- Joe Pusheck, "Go with Joe"
- Contributions:20
Thanks Diana, Roberto & Nina. I appreciate your comments.
- Vince Curtis, "SoCal Appraiser"
- Contributions:4699
Heading south then north.
- Debra (Debbie) Rose, "Livingston NJ"
- Contributions:2734
pssst Roberto - speaking of the Good Neighbor Policy....
here's a good part to remember
"Be respectful of others"
here's a good part to remember
"Be respectful of others"
- Gary May, "RealtorTampaBay"
- Contributions:56
As employment continues to improve and consumers are in a better position to pay their mortgages...the real estate market will continue to improve for sellers. It's a great time to be a homebuyer or property investor...they can buy homes at the lower end of the market as compared to the higher end six years ago. First time homebuyers in 2012 are getting into the market at a better position than those of six years ago. Best Wishes!!
- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4699
Roberto, what is so wrong with a post saying she has seen house prices go up then speculating on a reason for buyers waiting to buy? To me her reasoning made some sense.
Although I disagree with the "you snooze you lose" part waiting to see what direction the country will follow after the next election makes a lot of sense for many buyers. One way (Ron Paul) should show us a very different path and fiscal reality compared to the one Obama has us on. It is still far to early to speculate on who the republican nominee will be at this time. It is to early to speculate on what kind of budget cuts will or will not be made on the federal level.
I thought you would be a little nicer to a new agent on the site. She did not even violate the Good Neighbor Policy like many new agents do accidentally in their first few posts.
Joe, normally prices do rise in low interest rate conditions. This time is different because the bubble is still deflating. I am just waiting to hear the wailing of sellers once mortgage rates go back to 8% (or more) and buyers can not afford to pay the price that higher interest rates take away. It could be as little as 2-3 years away based on federal debt levels alone.
Although I disagree with the "you snooze you lose" part waiting to see what direction the country will follow after the next election makes a lot of sense for many buyers. One way (Ron Paul) should show us a very different path and fiscal reality compared to the one Obama has us on. It is still far to early to speculate on who the republican nominee will be at this time. It is to early to speculate on what kind of budget cuts will or will not be made on the federal level.
I thought you would be a little nicer to a new agent on the site. She did not even violate the Good Neighbor Policy like many new agents do accidentally in their first few posts.
Joe, normally prices do rise in low interest rate conditions. This time is different because the bubble is still deflating. I am just waiting to hear the wailing of sellers once mortgage rates go back to 8% (or more) and buyers can not afford to pay the price that higher interest rates take away. It could be as little as 2-3 years away based on federal debt levels alone.
wow dianna, that could be one of the least informative posts ever!
- Diana Hope, "d.hope"
- Contributions:7
I feel like the market is going up. I have already seen price increases in properties in my area. Therefore, I am thinking what buyers are waiting for a new President. Well maybe this is the problem. I guess we will see after the election. However if buyers wait and everything changes after the election it just might be too late. Snooze you lose is my motto. Any suggestions?
- Nina Harris, "NinaHarris"
- Contributions:258
I agree with Debra and Wes. I am also seeing several homes that were purchased back in 2009 that are now back on the market that have depreciated at least 10 to 12% in value.
So when I hear that we hit bottom in early 2009 and prices have stabilized, I have to disagree. In the area I service prices have depreciated approximately 4.7% since last year.
So when I hear that we hit bottom in early 2009 and prices have stabilized, I have to disagree. In the area I service prices have depreciated approximately 4.7% since last year.
- Joe Pusheck, "Go with Joe"
- Contributions:20
You are absolutely correct that low interest rates are not sustainable, but low interest rates drive up prices and for the next several years that is what we are going to see according to Ben Bernanke the Fed chairman. "Only small incremental rate increases." So don't let some mortgage guy who is obviously trying to sell you a loan tell you "You better hurry up before rates increase." No, you better hurry up because historical data shows that home prices in the Golden State go up when interest rates are low. Like they are now.
- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4699
"This segment was more about buying power and the affordability of homes but of course there is value in affordability as well."
A 30 year $106,000 mortgage costs $493.91 a month at 3.8%.
A 30 year $100,000 mortgage costs $491.94 a month at 4.25%.
A 30 year $82,000 mortgage costs $491.63 a month at 6.00%
A 30 year $67,000 mortgage costs $491.62 a month at 8.00%
A 30 year $56,000 mortgage costs $491.44 a month at 10.0%
Buying power and affordability at this time are truly illusory. Only unsustainably low interest rates make affordability seem to exist. If a person buys now and sells into a 8% interest rate (not high at all) environment in 5 years they will see how it was truly unaffordable.
There was a segment on the news recently that said the way the federal government is borrowing now the Greece type level of debt and the resulting problems will occur before 2 more elections pass. Once that happens mortgage rates will rise regardless of how low the federal reserve keeps bank rates at.
A 30 year $106,000 mortgage costs $493.91 a month at 3.8%.
A 30 year $100,000 mortgage costs $491.94 a month at 4.25%.
A 30 year $82,000 mortgage costs $491.63 a month at 6.00%
A 30 year $67,000 mortgage costs $491.62 a month at 8.00%
A 30 year $56,000 mortgage costs $491.44 a month at 10.0%
Buying power and affordability at this time are truly illusory. Only unsustainably low interest rates make affordability seem to exist. If a person buys now and sells into a 8% interest rate (not high at all) environment in 5 years they will see how it was truly unaffordable.
There was a segment on the news recently that said the way the federal government is borrowing now the Greece type level of debt and the resulting problems will occur before 2 more elections pass. Once that happens mortgage rates will rise regardless of how low the federal reserve keeps bank rates at.
- Joe Pusheck, "Go with Joe"
- Contributions:20
This segment was more about buying power and the affordability of homes but of course there is value in affordability as well. It would be nice to just dismiss the market low as irrelevant, however as a point of historical reference it is important to a lot of people. And it's just a fact that many Home Owners and would be buyers are still on the fence and this information is important to them in making decisions about when to sell, or when to buy, or when to do an exchange of properties. A historical reference point or low point gives us something to gauge future moves in the market based on the real estate cycle.
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25139
I don't think that people need to look at any market in terms of whether it bottomed. They should be look to their market for value. Some houses may be a a value that is supportable, where others may still be too high based on the local economy/underpinnings.
Some markets peaked early and seem close to bottom prices before the bubble. Others like my area, peaked late and are not at sustainable levels yet. Buyers need to focus on their area and each house individually with an eye on value. You don't have to buy at the lowest low to get a good deal and you have to consider how a mortgage rate increase will affect you buying power and the larger market.
Some markets peaked early and seem close to bottom prices before the bubble. Others like my area, peaked late and are not at sustainable levels yet. Buyers need to focus on their area and each house individually with an eye on value. You don't have to buy at the lowest low to get a good deal and you have to consider how a mortgage rate increase will affect you buying power and the larger market.
- Keith & Kinsey Schulz, "Keith And Kinsey"
- Contributions:76
In my opinion, we should be looking at local market data rather than the entire national market as a whole. Some markets are heading up, some still going down. Some are fairly flat and starting to turn the corner.
I do believe pricing in my local market bottomed in November 2009, based on [hotlink removed by Zillow moderator] We saw a bit of a double dip, but it's looking like a strong start to 2012. The past three months here in the Madison area show 14% more sales than the same time frame last year.
I do believe pricing in my local market bottomed in November 2009, based on [hotlink removed by Zillow moderator] We saw a bit of a double dip, but it's looking like a strong start to 2012. The past three months here in the Madison area show 14% more sales than the same time frame last year.
- Joe Pusheck, "Go with Joe"
- Contributions:20
Thank you for all your comments. The "bottom of the housing market" is a relative statement that has a whole lot of factors involved. The most relevant of which is the economic status of our community. When I say; "experts agree we saw the bottom of the housing market in early 2009", I am not just pointing to home prices which have continued to fall just slightly. More importantly as an indicator of our local economy I refer to the Housing Affordability Index. This is an indicator published by the National Association of Realtors, that shows data that points to a "bottom of the market" early in 2009, in terms of affordability. Factors include median household incomes and the purchasing power of the typical household in America. The (H.A.I.) rose to a record high of 184.5 in 2011, meaning that more people were able to afford a median home on a median income than in 2009,2008,2007. My point is that housing prices are right where they should be in relative terms.
- Mack McCoy
- Contributions:1117
It's close, but it's not totally wrong.
Ten of the twenty markets surveyed by Case-Shiller were above their 2009 lows this past November; the low of 139.26 in April 2009 isn't much above November's 138.49. This indicates that values have essentially been flat for two and a half years.
Hitting bottom doesn't necessarily mean there's a rebound; although the index went up as high as 148 since April 2009, you wouldn't look at any other market average and freak out over a 3% swing one way or another over thirty months.
Ten of the twenty markets surveyed by Case-Shiller were above their 2009 lows this past November; the low of 139.26 in April 2009 isn't much above November's 138.49. This indicates that values have essentially been flat for two and a half years.
Hitting bottom doesn't necessarily mean there's a rebound; although the index went up as high as 148 since April 2009, you wouldn't look at any other market average and freak out over a 3% swing one way or another over thirty months.
Zillow economists indicated they expect it to drop maybe 3% more this year, and then be flat for maybe up to a decade, but each area and each market sector is slightly different, which is why they have been tracking and provide market index trend information for as many areas and housing types as they can.
Spencer (Zillow's CEO) stated that with prices beginning to stabilize this year, he didn't believe that people looking for a home to stay in long term should continue to hold out. He is still indicated as a "renter" on the Zillow "about us" "management team" page. (Spencer's House).
But with his recent stock-option bonus windfall, I can easily see why it is now time for him to buy that family house.
Those of us that owned for years and have no mortgage nor debt are looking for moving options that may make sense for specific unstated objectives.
Foreclosure saturation is still high in many parts of the nation. A "normal" market will require getting the Foreclosure saturation to less than 5% of what is on the market. In some areas, it should be as low as 1%. Many areas still have a foreclosures saturation of 20% or more.
Spencer (Zillow's CEO) stated that with prices beginning to stabilize this year, he didn't believe that people looking for a home to stay in long term should continue to hold out. He is still indicated as a "renter" on the Zillow "about us" "management team" page. (Spencer's House).
But with his recent stock-option bonus windfall, I can easily see why it is now time for him to buy that family house.
Those of us that owned for years and have no mortgage nor debt are looking for moving options that may make sense for specific unstated objectives.
Foreclosure saturation is still high in many parts of the nation. A "normal" market will require getting the Foreclosure saturation to less than 5% of what is on the market. In some areas, it should be as low as 1%. Many areas still have a foreclosures saturation of 20% or more.
- Debra (Debbie) Rose, "Livingston NJ"
- Contributions:2734
"Most experts agree that the market hit bottom in early 2009"
................................
Really?
Why do we need "experts' to tell us what already has taken place?
Wouldn't we know if we hit bottom back then by now?
Do you think it hit bottom back then?
I don't.
If it hit bottom, then by now we'd be seeing a more robust market and increasing prices........or do the "experts" mean we hit bottom, and stayed there for 3 years?
..the .proof is in the pudding as they say....
If we hit the bottom in '09, then prices should be appreciating ......they certainly haven't appreciated in my area since then. There may be a few small pockets where prices are more encouraging, but to say we hit bottom 3 years ago is ridiculous, imo.
I am actually listing a home in the next 2 weeks that was bought in '09...will be listing it for at least 5-8% less than they paid for it....and I hope I can stop the bleeding without having them see a 10% loss.
................................
Really?
Why do we need "experts' to tell us what already has taken place?
Wouldn't we know if we hit bottom back then by now?
Do you think it hit bottom back then?
I don't.
If it hit bottom, then by now we'd be seeing a more robust market and increasing prices........or do the "experts" mean we hit bottom, and stayed there for 3 years?
..the .proof is in the pudding as they say....
If we hit the bottom in '09, then prices should be appreciating ......they certainly haven't appreciated in my area since then. There may be a few small pockets where prices are more encouraging, but to say we hit bottom 3 years ago is ridiculous, imo.
I am actually listing a home in the next 2 weeks that was bought in '09...will be listing it for at least 5-8% less than they paid for it....and I hope I can stop the bleeding without having them see a 10% loss.
- Nicholas Ribeiro, "NicholasRibeiro"
- Contributions:1807
As home prices continue to fall more buyers keep coming out from their apartments. This question is so simple and we all make it so difficult. In my market there are 3300 homes for sale (supply) and about 200 sales per month (demand). How can you expect anything but lower pricing with every sale with this trend? when these 2 numbers come closer together we will see stabilization. When they are close to even we will see the market turn around.
- Wes Black
- Contributions:509
I disagree that home prices hit bottom in 2009. In Louisville,KY we arenow just starting to see house prices stabilize. Some choice neighborhoods will see a 2% or so increase 4th Qtr of this year. My opinion is that total sales in our area may rise 3% this year over last year.
- Cindy Quinton, "Cindy Quinton"
- Contributions:1324
Please cite your source for "most experts agree that the market hit bottom in early 2009."
I personally think actual rising home prices on a national level is wishful thinking...
Where is the real estate market headed?
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