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Where will rates bottom out?

Profile picture for brian_ray56

Hi,

 

I'm looking for all informed speculation on where rates will eventually land (recognizing, of course, that this is pure crystal-ball gazing - but it's nice to get the wisdom of the crowd).  I'm considering refinancing a 4.75 7/1 ARM that's not up until 2011 and was quoted 5.375 a few hours ago.

 

Thanks!

 

 

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November 25 2008 - US

Replies (34)

Profile picture for Martin Wareing

br56,

Nobody knows because we can't tell anyone why the FED bought up MBS today with such tenacity.  I would just tell you to be ready and you pick a rate that makes you want to close... If it reaches it...lock-n-load... Today's action has never happened before.  Anyone trying to really give a valid reason belongs in a carnival.  Keep rockin'.

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for SoCal_Engr

Just to keep things straight, can we identify what product(s) is/are being talked about? I'm assuming 5.375 was for a 0-point 30yr fixed, because that's what I'm interested in. However, it could also be the GPA of the next-generation uber-achieving high school senior.

 

Grazi.

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for 203K Specialist

I have been telling everyone the same thing If I was to tell you a week ago I could lock your rate in at what I am offering you right now...what would you have done?

 

The answer is lock!  Don't get greedy the rates have plummeted today....who knows if it will be sustained it could just as easily jump back up tomorrow.  All I know is that rate will change again and would not be shocked if today's gains were lost in the blink of an eye.  Why risk what a week ago would have had you dancing in the street!

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November 25 2008

socal- you can probably get it now- :)

 

brian- no telling where rates will 'bottom', we see nothing but peaks and valleys. The trick is to get as close to the valley as possible. Hard to know where the valley is until it starts rising up the other side. Little bit of luck, a little bit of smarts.

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for Martin Wareing

SOC,

Without major "price hits" for CASHOUT or lower scores... 5.375% without points (origination or discount) should be on the board or very close.. Would not surprise me to see it offered to you. 30 YR FIXED is the product as well. Hope that helps and do not offer your biz to the idiots who did not read your comments.. Shameful.

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for brian_ray56

to answer so_cal engr, the quote is for a 0 pt, 30-yr fixed.

 

Thanks for the advice.

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for Clearpoint

I have locked several loans today at 5.375% and even a few lower, however I am still surprised at how many borrowers still want to wait and see. I certainly do not know what will happen tomorrow, next week, etc. but these are great rates and the difference an additional .125% to .25% reduction is fairly small. However individual risk tolerance varies.

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November 25 2008

This is what I just received. I've never seen anything like it before.

 


"November 25, 2008, 1:00 PM (Pacific Time)

Due to the overwhelming response to today's special pricing, we are suspending pricing for the remainder of the day to ensure quality service for our current locked loans."

 

At least some people are taking advantage of these rates and not trying to predict what is impossible to predict.

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for Colorado Lender
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November 25 2008
Profile picture for Colorado Lender

fees=points.  sorry

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November 25 2008

must be 1%.

 

I saw her quoting out here at 5.5%. Must be trying a new strategy.

 

I hope these rates hold for a day or two!!!!

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November 25 2008

Try locking something with WF right now, system down and hold time for the pricing department was over an hour last time I talked to my AE, and that was before the price improvement!  Somehow I got access to their website just long enough to lock a refi earlier.  I feel like I won the lottery.

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for Rob Cochems

Better lock them in for 60 days boys and girls, U/W times are going to get horrendous if these rates hold.

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for shapiroamg

Rates bottomed out about mid afternoon. Lots of lenders repriced by the close of day. This is now the third significant dip in rates this year. the first two lasted hours. this one may be a days or longer, but we may have seen the best rates this morning. Heed AA's advice, if you like the rate, take it. It it makes sense for your situation, take it. If you were kicking yourself because you missed 5.875% two weeks ago and today you have 5.5%, take it.

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for Brian G. Allen

WOW -what wass the swing I locked 3 today at 5.375  w/ .451 back I look at the revisions and its like they were yesterday - haven't seen the news what made it swing bcak up.

  

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for SoCal_Engr

Jen,

 

I talked to AA today to get some "offline advice". I locked last week at 5.375 on a 30yr fixed Jumbo, but am paying 1pt (vice the 5.625 and no points). However, the lender (CU) has almost no other fees, other than title and appraisal (which aren't theirs).

 

Anyway, Andrew proved to be as good a sounding board as I figured he'd be (thanks AA for the info and advice).

 

Now, being somewhat mercenary and with a loan-in-hand, I'll see if I can improve my situation over the next few weeks. If not, I'll do well with what I currently have...unless someone can figure out how to magically halve my outstanding balance. Maybe I'll check into one of those Aussie mortages...   ;-)

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for 203K Specialist

Socal,

 

Thanks for the props and thanks for the e-mail.

 

Sorry I couldn't be more detailed but I was a bit busy locking in loans and calling clients.  I am glad I was able to help but the terms you have are excellent for Jumbo Financing.  I wish I had something even close to that! 

 

Have a great night!

 

 

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for Socialist

I think if Ben has too, he will start dropping money from helicopters to get rates down in the 4's.

 

I am holding out, but I have that luxury as I am not in a mjor hurry to buy.

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for 203K Specialist
socialist...that mind set will almost guarantee missing the bottom. I am hoping I am wrong, but I wouldn't want to wager on rates going into the 4's.
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November 25 2008

socal- mixed you up with someone else. Forgot about Navy Fed- good deal :)

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for Socialist

You know I would place a wager with you, but I keep rolling it over in my mind, and no matter what, you do not lose!

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for yaegermike

what incentives do investors have to invest at 4% for something that has been very risky in the past few years? Keeping rates in the high 5's is why there is money in the system at all.

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for gsaroyan

If we care to research what happened in June 2003, we would quickly realize that rates were in the 4's when the 10 yr treasury was this low.  It's just a matter of time before we see rates in the 4's. 

 

As for receiving rate quotes on Zillow...I would keep far from Zillow when it comes to rate quotes.  There is no basis for a large number of quotes on this website.  I hate to say this, but this free service will become expensive for Zillow when they begin to deal with all the legal issues from users.

 

Based on the quotes given on this website, a lender would basically make a couple of hundred dollars on a transaction.  If I make a .25% to .5% on a deal from Zillow I would be amazed.  The expectation level is unrealistic.

 

Unfortunately this industry still has far too many bad seeds in it to offer a free website like this.  It's a perfect storm for trouble.

 

Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.

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November 25 2008

"As for receiving rate quotes on Zillow...I would keep far from Zillow when it comes to rate quotes."

 

Then why did you submit a quote 1 hour and 4 minutes ago ?

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November 25 2008
Profile picture for JoeMcEwen

I am not a realtor, a mortgage broker or a banker. I am someone interested in trading up - selling my existing home for a superior new home. I understand that what the feds did yesterday has reduced rates and will help many people. However, I am still not buying because people in my area are losing jobs or not getting raises/bonuses. The housing market where i live is a long way from stabilizing. If I have a choice between buying a house now with a rate of 5.25 or buying a house 6 months from now for 10-15% less and a rate that's a bit higher, i will choose the latter.

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November 26 2008
Profile picture for George DeVine

Good for you Joe, your point?

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November 26 2008
Profile picture for 203K Specialist
What if houses don't drop 10-15% more and rates go up to 8....do you have a time machine at your disposal? So you still have a choice!
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November 26 2008

George, I think his point is that he does not care where rates will bottom out, he is waiting for prices to bottom... ;) Hopefully he doesn't owe anything on his current house. Doesn't do any good if his is worth nothing too.

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November 26 2008

andrew, if prices are already dropping where joe lives, and rates go up, prices will most assuredly continue dropping. So your question is silly.

 

Might as well ask, 'what if GM raises the prices of all their SUVs by 50% next month, and they keep selling them all"

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November 26 2008
Profile picture for 203K Specialist

Azrob,

 

all I am saying is no one knows what is going to happen.  At some point prices will bottom out it may be today it may be 5 years from now..10 years from now...but at some point they will bottom out.  When you miss the bottom you cannot get back to it!

 

Personally I would rather pay 18% on a rate and get the lowest sales price.  You can always refinance you can't improve your purchase price after you buy the house.

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November 26 2008
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