Who else agrees 2012 is a good time to buy?

  • January 14 2012 - Reno
  • 2
    2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Be a Good Neighbor. Be respectful and on-topic. No spam or self-promotion! See our Good Neighbor Policy.

Answers (27)

Best Answer

I thnk he is wrong about the the statement that we are at the end of the crisis. I believe we are at the halfway point. Investors  are likeing the las Vegas market. It is a market that the video referred to. It is cheaper to buy than rent. I think we will see strategic defaults go up this year. With interest rates below 4% and the prices in the Las Vegas market it is a good time to become a homeowner.
Thank You
Suzie Marquardt
  • January 14 2012
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

That's interesting, Jenny, because the press is controlled by six media companies that are making a boatload of money from Republican advertisers. Yes, that's six. GE, which owns 49% of NBC and is partners with Comcast. Walt Disney, hardly a liberal media company. News Corp, which is Fox. TimeWarner. Viacom. CBS. Do you think these are companies that are especially "liberal?"
  • January 16 2012
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for JennyGar
I wish we were near the end of the crisis, but I just don't think we are.  Everyone that I talk to thinks that the press is making it seem like things are getting better because they want to help Mr. Obama win his election.  But their actual lives are not getting better.  I wonder what things will look like towards the end of this year after the election?
  • January 16 2012
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for the_country_hick
Steve, I bought a dynomax exhaust system from advance auto. Stainless steel, lifetime warranty and it fits my dodge. The deal was better 2 days ago but it is still a good one. I got $50 off and another $50 towards a future purchase that I need to make anyway. Now it is only $30 off.

The only reason I posted the threads in those links is because Hamp was pushing me to say why my scenario did not happen in the 1970's. After several times of seeing that I decided to give a solid reply. I figured that would eliminate reasonable doubts based on normal expectations and historical precedents.

If interest rates rise by 2% and incomes rise by 3% buying power still dropped a lot when financing. Looking at all the federal reserve has done creating currency from thin air I can see massive inflation and even lower effective wages. This time we are in extreme global competition that will act to keep most wages from rising very quickly. I can not see how wages can rise much if at all when companies are looking to relocate to other states or even countries in this current environment. One big businessman was planning to close down 40 factories here and relocate them overseas. That was a direct result of the NLRB telling Boeing they could not open a new plant in SC even though it was all new jobs.

Hpvanc, I am thinking inflation (things besides gas and food cost more) will happen but wage growth (income paid after taxes) will not. The way things look now I see it as very possible and likely.
  • January 15 2012
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Because, Steve, Dan insists on ignoring the fact that even if "real" - adjusted for inflation - values do not keep pace with inflation, the borrower is, in fact, paying off the loan with cheaper dollars. 

The problem for Dan is that it conflicts with his mantra that nobody should buy real estate now for any reason except financial suicide. But inflation has proven to be a boon to homeowners, not a burden.

On the other side, inflation is bad for bondholders, who do not want to get paid off with cheaper dollars, and the inflation hawks tend to be fueled and funded by . . . bondholders, rather than borrowers.

  • January 15 2012
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for shasta_steve
Well Tug now that is funny.   But I think it would be against Zillow's rules to say that .  

Dan you have officially taken the title as the most narcissistic poster away from Pasa.  Actually I think you have had him beat for a while now but Mack does give you a run for your money.    

By the way what type of exhaust did you put on your truck?   My Power Stroke is going to need a new one soon.  
  • January 15 2012
  • 6Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for hpvanc
Dan's answer is contingent on have rising interest rates without inflation and some wage growth, which is a potential scenario.  Personally I don't see that happening, and if it does it will be brief and send the entire economy into a deep recession and quickly turn into deflation causing interest rates plummeting, reversing the whole scenario. 

If we see rising interest rates, it will mean we have general inflation, and after a lag housing prices will rise too.  Housing won't in my opinion lead an inflationary charge, the bubble happened the last time the US consumers bought the idea that housing would lead the inflationary charge.
  • January 15 2012
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for Dunes ..
@shasta_steve

Please let us know what you learned after you finish reading Dan's answer to your question ;)
  • January 15 2012
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for the_country_hick
  • January 15 2012
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Much better time to buy than sell, thats for sure.
  • January 15 2012
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for shasta_steve

I know you have cut and pasted that same information 25 or 30 times, although not recently, but why did house prices not plunge in the late seventies and early eighties if what you say it true.  Yes they backed off some but you could not say the word plunged and we were in a pretty severe recession then too.   At best you can say there is an indirect relationship between interest rates and home prices and interest rates usually go up in an inflationary environment. 

Lots of things go into house prices.  Yes interest rates are one but so is the availibility of money, how much it costs to build, how many vacant houses there are, local economy, how desirable the area is and price to rent.  Let's face it there are people out there with plenty of money to pay cash for houses as soon as it makes economic sense to them.   Around here for the lower end houses you generally have to fight off the investors as they are selling for under 10 times annual rent. 

  • January 15 2012
  • 3Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for the_country_hick
I thought 2012 was a fantastic time to buy so I did. I found a 4" stainless steel exhaust system for my diesel truck for over $100 less than anywhere else that had it. As I wanted the better exhaust system I could not wait to buy it.

To buy real estate in 2012 has not shown itself to be a really good time for purchasing that particular commodity. Just higher interest rates will drop present prices much more than they sit at now.

A 30 year $100,000 mortgage costs $491.94 a month at 4.25%.
A 30 year  $67,000 mortgage costs $491.62 a month at 8.00%
A 30 year  $56,000 mortgage costs $491.44 a month at 10.0%

Hold on, the real estate price roller coaster ride has not started its big plunge to the bottom yet.
  • January 15 2012
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

I think it is absolutely silly to make blanket statements about it being a good time to buy or sell. I can say that most markets are challenging to do either in right now due to lending standards and economic uncertainty. I would wager in most markets there is probably at least one property that is an excellent buy, and probably at least one property that is a horrible buy. Aside from that, whether or not it is a good time to buy depends on not just the market, but what is going on in a person's life, their desire to own/not own property, what is occuring in the rental and employment markets and a host of other factors.
  • January 15 2012
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for Lady Chattel
Someone who bought a home in Jan 2011 probably thought it was a good time to buy, prices were low compared to the highs and interest rates were low and lots of inventory....but guess what, the same can be said for today and house prices have gone down even more.  If you decide to buy you also have to accept that you WILL LOOSE equity. 
I bought last summer but there were several factors that went into my decision but I also went into it knowing full well that the bottom had not been met yet. 

If the chit hits the fan in this country and the dollar collapses and society starts to erode then at least the bank won't have the resources to come kick me out of my home, if your a renter the same can't be said for your landlord kicking you out at the other end of a long barrel.  I know I will loose money on my house unless I own it for 40+ years........no one can say for certain they will stay in a home that long.....the paradigm is going to have to shift because today's economy doesn't have you at the same company/location for 30 years......
  • January 15 2012
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for hpvanc
Well Hamp, the good news is I do have degrees in economics, not sure I'm an economist since I work as a tech geek, so I guess our opinions of our respective backgrounds is mutual. 

We actually agree on the role (or lack there of) of the federal government, probably state governments and investment bankers.  I consider the media a necessary irritation no matter how much I disagree with them.  I almost always agree with you and appreciate the quality of basic information you have given on the forums.  You are also one of the more level headed and honest agents on the forums, and probably come closer to providing a professional level services than 99% of agents.  I just don't think you go far enough. 

Buyers agency after what I gritted my teeth, held my nose and tolerated, and the damage that I see it did for other people that I care about is a hot button issue for me.  No I was not harmed by it personally beyond indirectly paying for what I considered to be a disservice. 
  • January 14 2012
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Well, Dan, I agree with you - the operative word is, "When."

Interest rates tend to follow the rate of inflation, the chart you posted some time ago notwithstanding. So you have a nominal appreciation that serves to pay off the loan if you sell; if you decide to stay, you're paying the loan off with cheaper dollars. That has been demonstrated in recent history, since WWII. The scenario you describe, while possible, has not happened in at least the past sixty years.
  • January 14 2012
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for the_country_hick
Mack, "I also think it is an excellent time to borrow, at four percent fixed for thirty years."

That is correct. To be able to borrow money for an amount likely to be below what inflation will take away does make borrowing money look appealing today.

The problem comes when house prices have an inverse relationship to interest rates. As rates rise house prices will be forced down barring massive wage growth.

Low interest rates really make it a worse time to buy a house and do not provide a better reason to buy today.
  • January 14 2012
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

hpvanc, I will thank you to refrain from telling me what you think I should do on these boards.

I don't know - or care - what you do for a living, but in my world, sometimes our opinions align with what is personally beneficial. It would serve me to have better, well-funded schools in my community, and a side benefit is that more teachers would be able to afford to buy real estate.

It would personally benefit me if more people came to me to buy real estate, and I think the conditions are quite favorable to do so. It also would personally benefit me if more people came to me to sell real estate, but in my opinion, conditions aren't especially favorable for selling.

I am not impartial on many topics, and while you might insist on impartiality from the professionals you hire, please remember that I am not currently in your employ.
  • January 14 2012
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

I'm a proud Consummate Professional Exclusive Home Buyer's Agent.

I am not an investment adviser, an investment banker, an economist, a statistician, or a computer programmer.

I also love a good consomme. I have skills and accomplishments in consummating these, too.

Mack, it probably is a great time to invest in RE too. I just prefer working with Homeowners. I'd nave to be compensated, at a much greater rate, to deal with "investors", regularly.
  • January 14 2012
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for SoCal Engr
Personally, I think that's a ridiculous question. There is no set of conditions that universally screams "now is the time buy".

A "good time to buy" is determined by a person's individual circumstances. Sometimes, those individual circumstances even dictate that the "right time to buy" is when everyone else is screaming "No!". There have even been times when I've knowingly overpaid (a bit), because the time was right for "me".

Conversely, there are also times when it is not a good time to buy - irrespective of the great deals that are to be had.

Too many people really don't distinguish between "buying" a house and "buying" a cheeseburger. One is instant gratiification and, somewhat obsiously, a consumable. The other is a financial commitment, a decision with long-term ramifications, a decision that impacts future decisions. To atttempt to distill the decision into a pat set of data points (i.e., good rates + good prices = buy) is overly simplistic. You might as well attempt to apply similarly simplistic reasoning to "Is now a good time to have a baby?"
  • January 14 2012
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for hpvanc
For the record I did not say you could not express your opinion.  When you advertise a self-serving one, you better have some analysis to back it up.  There is such a thing as professional impartiality and something I demand in all professionals I willing engage to do business, REA whether you love them or hate them have not achieved professional impartiality about the real estate market.  While not having it may be fine as long as you remain meticulously honest as a listing agent, it is unacceptable when representing yourselves as buyers agents/representatives.

Also for the record I have just as much use for the consummate sales people that work in my industry, and let them know it every chance I get, as I have for consummate sales people who work as real estate agents and have the audacity to call themselves buyer representatives.
  • January 14 2012
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

That's right, Hamp! As usual!

And I don't care if they're anonymous or not, but the pandering - if you express your opinion, I won't want to work with you - puhleeze.

Although, I think it's a great time to invest in real estate, as well. Again - really low interest rates, rents are up here in the Pacific Northwest and rising, and the numbers make sense - you don't have to suffer huge negatives hoping for market appreciation to bail you out.

And you know what, Hamp? - when we put somebody into a good property, they give us all the respect we need, don't they?
  • January 14 2012
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

I do. If you're buying a home, and not an "investment vehicle". If you do it carefully, with as little emotional involvement as possible.

I also think it is a great time to be an anonymous general REA hater. One of the best times, ever, for that. I'm an identified Investment Banker hater, and I've never had an easier hobby. I'm also a Federal Gov't hater, and it is so easy I can't get to the front of the line. I'm also not very fond of Economist. I despise 93% of the Media.
  • January 14 2012
  • 2Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Sure, hpvanc, but do we care? I mean, were you going to engage any of us anyway? So be it.

I'm not here to engage you a client, pal, and it be a sorry state of affairs for an agent to lie just to get into your good graces.

Another thing - we are salespeople, and I, for one, am proud of it. When I take a listing, I don't tell the seller, oh, I'm just a disinterested servant hoping to do the world some good, maybe the buyer fairy will hit us on the head and take your property off your hands. I am a salesperson. In fact, it said so on my license for seventeen years (now, in Washington State, we are Brokers).

Along the same lines - regardless of our approach or the dynamics of the relationship we have with buyers, we are salespersons. They come to us to buy, not to look, and they don't want us going to the Seller with the attitude of, "whatever happens, happens."

At the end of the story - one can be a Professional and be a Salesperson or Broker. And everybody doesn't have to like it. I don't like people slamming my profession, and I don't mind letting that be known, either.
  • January 14 2012
  • 3Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

Profile picture for hpvanc
You guys are entitled to your own opinion. 

Am I going to engage any of you to act as a buyers representative or recommend you to someone else as a buyers representative after making such a broad generalized statement that will generate income for you?  Without you showing some detailed analysis that shows both positives and negatives in the market as well as the economy and how they are going to interact, then the answer is no. 

Agents want to be considered and respected as professionals, yet keep resorting to base salesperson behavior, all the while expecting people to use and trust them as a BUYER representative, and then can't understand why they are not getting respect.  Go figure.
  • January 14 2012
  • 0Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

I do!
  • January 14 2012
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.

You're going to get a lot of negative feedback for this one, Karen, and I think this is an excellent time to buy.

I also think it is an excellent time to borrow, at four percent fixed for thirty years.

The reality is that we cannot see around a corner - we have no real idea if or when the market or the economy will turn around. But people thinking about how they're going to live the next thirty years of their lives; I think most of them are hopeful about the future and have an expectation of home ownership and paying off their own mortgage rather than somebody else's.
  • January 14 2012
  • 1Yes

  • Report a Problem

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Content flagged

    We will review this content. Thanks for helping make the site more useful to everyone. To learn more, read Zillow's Good Neighbor Policy.

    We're sorry. This service is temporarily unavailable. Please come back later and try again.