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Why are Zillow's values inconsistent?

The home at 3194 W. Las Positas in Pleasanton is valued at $650.0.  The IDENTICAL home across the street at 3683 Annis Circle is valued at $625.0.

SIX OTHER homes within the same neighborhood, with IDENTICAL FLOORPLANS, SQUARE FOOTAGE AND LOT SIZES have much higher values:

3174 W. Las Positas: $709.0
3627 Annis Circle: $707.0 (note also: this sold six months after 3194 W. Las Positas for $620.0)
3647 Annis Circle: $708.0
3170 Kirkcaldy: $708.0
3303 Hartwell: $718.0
3304 Hartwell: $707.0

Please explain the methodology.  All eight of these homes are 3 bed/2 bath, 1,556 square feet with IDENTICAL layouts, and lot sizes that are within 100 square feet of each other.  Yet two of the homes are valued at sub $700k?
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August 23 2013 - US
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Answers (1)

Profile picture for Pasadenan
Primarily the difference is the amount they sold for last, adjusted for sold date, as that is the primary way of estimating the differences in finishes, amenities, and condition with limited county records data.

Also look at the 70% confidence interval (range) given for each estimate.  All the estimates you referenced are "exactly the same" after you take into account the tolerance margin for the estimating.  (You do know that if you drill an 1/2" diameter hole, that it is never "exactly" 1/2 inch don't you?)

For more information, see the FAQ "what is a Zestimate".

Or, if you are a sticker for details, read Zillow's patent on the subject:
U.S. Patent #8,140,421

If the estimate STATES that it is only 70% confident to be within +/- 20%, why are you expecting it to be within less than +/- 1% ?
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August 24 2013
 
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