Why does a home's value goes down when the whole neighborhood (Medina, WA) is going up? T

Profile picture for gabrielciuca
I am looking at this house in Medina and I try to understand your algorithm. The whole Medina went up in value in the last 30 days (.9%) and this house's value went down 3.4%. Thank you.
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October 28 2009 - Medina
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Answers (4)

Profile picture for SeattleHome.com
I don't love the zestimates, either.  However, you're getting far too serious about the minutiae.  You're worried about a 0.9% increase?  It's insignificant.  The zillow system is very interesting, but still very likely to be flawed in its results many times.  It's a work in progress.
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November 13 2009
Profile picture for gabrielciuca
I agree with the tax assessments going up or down. However I picked (randomly) 10 homes for sale in Medina (listed on Zillow) and priced between $750k and $3,9M. All of them had their value go down in the last 30 days, according to the "zestimate". Unless by coincidence I picked only the ones with decreasing zestimates, please explain how did you come up with those values while according to Zillow the Medina neighborhood went up .9% in the same period of time. Which homes or what data are you using for this analysis? 

  It seems like the homes listed for sale are analysed with a different algorithm than the one that are not. I will try to find a house listed for sale on Zillow that actually had its "zestimate" increased in the last 30 days. 

While I find Zillow to be a good resource I also find it to be very confusing as far as calculations or data analysis which in certain cases it does not match the "zestimate calculation"  explanation posted on your website.

Please advise.

Thank you



 
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November 01 2009
Profile picture for Pasadenan
OK, you said you wanted this question deleted, so apparently you already know the answer.  But you already know that the housing market doesn't move as one fixed economic block all at the same time all in the same proportions.

Zillow uses a "least square curve fit" (linear regression) using the recently sold housing units in the vicinity and the county records data for all the housing units (sqft, lot size, # beds, #baths, # stories, last sold price/date, county assessed value...)

The recently sold price and the county assessed values are used as there is no other way for the "machine" to determine relative finish , upkeep, construction methods, construction material, and housing type.

As suggested, if the assessed value of an area drops, the estimates will be affected, except it also drops what it is compared to that sold.

Be advised, the numbers published by the multiples only give a clue of "what sales" and has no constant basis for "size" or anything else.  Zillow's Z-index on the other hand tracks the "median" of ALL housing units in the selected area by extrapolating for all units not on the market and not sold, thus does keep a constant reference of house selection.
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October 28 2009
Profile picture for SeattleHome.com
The estimates are tricky.  They're based on recent sales and tax assessments.  

Many tax assessments have gone down recently, maybe that's gone into the equation.
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October 28 2009
 

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