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Why it's a great time to wait and NOT buy

Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6653
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Since September 2009

Oh no, another doomer and his fact-backed assessments that the market is overvalued! Run, cheerleaders, run.

US home sales fall to fresh lows, glut of unsold homes rises:

"Existing homes sales fell sharply in September," said Stephen Gallagher, an economist at Societe Generale.

"Potential buyers, those without credit obstacles, had plenty of reason to wait and see hoping for greater supply or declining prices," Gallagher said.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=071024152444.1bd2qxem&show_article=1
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October 24 2007 - US

Replies (185)

Profile picture for K101
Contributions: 6569
Go Klarek go!

Your exuberance from your recent liberating decision to rent is appreciated and catchy. You keep slapping down the facts - even some of the NAR talking heads are starting to catch on.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6653
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Since September 2009

K101, I have been in a fantastic mood since I gave up the home-shopping "bug". What a depressing venture that was. I'm still two weeks away from moving in, but out of sheer anxiety I started taking down my bookshelf and packing away things last night.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for tldtms
Contributions: 784
I'm confused, did you buy a house or rent?
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6653
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Since September 2009

Rent. I came very close to buying, but snapped out of it at the right moment.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for 321321
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 137
Klarek, good for you for making the best decision for yourself in your particular situation. Not every buyer thinks the way you do right now.

I am glad that my client just closed on a duplex that was appraised at 270k but paid only 246k for it. Sometimes it is best to wait the market out but in her situation we negotiated down almost 30,000 dollars.

There are those situations where it pays to buy if you are in the postion to negotitate.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for RealDealDan
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 78
Klarek, the thing with this market is that no one knows when this will turn around. If you try and time this market you will never know when it was at it's lowest until after it has already started to rise. Also, it depends on what part of the country you are in. Most of the Midwest has not seen the run-ups in pricing that the coasts and the southern states have seen, so our downturns may not last as long.

Good Luck!
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for K101
Contributions: 6569
Hmmm... the experts that I saw on TV this afternoon all said that it will likely be 2009 before we can even think about an equilibrium point......
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for blackmetal
what I've noticed is that each person on here has their own agenda. I'm advocating buying because I'm buying right now and Klarek is advocating renting because that's what he himself has chosen to do. The fact that were all so concerned about real estate on here ultimately demonstrates just how self serving our society is in general. Think about it, during all the time we waste on here arguing back and forth over whether the market will crash or not, we could be out helping those that could never even dream of buying a home in the first place. All you greedy capitalists are the reason the market is now so messed up in the first place. I'm done with this forum for a while. There's gotta be more productive ways to use my time.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6653
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Since September 2009

Thanks, Ramona. I certainly came close to buying, but renting is so much cheaper around here right now. Plus, I'll be saving myself more than an hour per day in my commute.

Daniel, in my opinion it is far wiser to buy after it bottoms out than on the way down. We don't know how low it will go, and the ground is the limit. Nobody should ever put themselves in a situation where they owe more than the home is worth. At any time life can change and one could be forced to sell.

There are many parts of the country that were generally not "bubbled", so to speak, but I'm in the Northern VA area and prices absolutely skyrocketed in the past several years.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for Seattle Agent
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 464
jhannan,

Yes, I agree. I think each topic should start with..My agenda is....(myself included). Everyone is correct at some point in these threads. Would I buy in CA or FL? --NO!--other places..Yes.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6653
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Since September 2009

jhannan, I'm advocating renting because I think it's still a dangerously bad idea to buy. I'm renting because I truly believe it. There's nothing to indicate that this market will see an upswing any time soon.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for DebtsNMesses
Contributions: 6662
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Since July 2009

I'm in socal... renting is 1/2 the price of buying. I'm holding firm in my rental, too, but will buy when interest rates start climbing more. Either that, or buy elsewhere, where the bubble effect wasn't severe.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for Aldreth
Contributions: 4233
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Since August 2009

Would I buy in CA or FL? NO!
Would I buy in OR or WA? NO!
Would I buy in AK, GA, MD, ID, MA, IL, OH, TX, CO, IA, MI, CT, HI, MO, NV, KY, TN, MN, ME? NO!

Why would you buy anything right now?
Why even purchase a mortgage?
So you can rent from the bank and pay more for the privilege of giving them the money?

Why is it so unethical to have an active savings account?
Why are mortgages inherently tied to the stock market?
Why are real estate moguls trying so hard to keep the RE market propped?
Why is countrywide playing with default numbers?
Why is crude near 87$
Why do we keep hearing 1987 in relation to the current stock market?
Why has Merril Lynch been downgraded?
Why is the american dollar worth less than the canadian counterpart?


I don't have an agenda other than to tell passive idiots to wake up and look at things from a non-rose-colored-glasses view.

Don't be biased because your job demands it.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for sunnyview
Contributions: 10849
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Since January 2009

Buying in this market is only a good idea if the property pencils out close to the same as renting. That is always how a buyer should try to buy. At least that way if the worst happens, they can afford to carry the property if they are unable to sell.

Aldreth you always have good points. Personally, I smell 1970 style recession coming around..high gas prices, high interest rates and a dead real estate market. Yuk, I hated the 70's.
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October 24 2007
Real estate inclines and declines have been very rapid in the last 3 years. i don't think we can compare it to anything.

Its not biased if you truly feel that the market will go back up, no matter what your profession is.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for CORONA NICK
Contributions: 2135
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Since October 2009

Why ask why...lol
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for mrfnuts
Contributions: 1353
'Its not biased if you truly feel that the market will go back up'

Isn't that the precise definition of biased?
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for Angelique01
lol. Of course these posts are all self-serving no matter what side of the fence you're on, but at least some are based on reality.

I'm smack in the middle of getting a real estate license for fun and profit, really mostly for my own use. Even if I were to use the license to buy or sell for others, there's no way on earth that I could ethically encourage someone to buy now. Things around here are seriously dropping, and I'm not sure how anyone can predict where they'll ultimately go.

Just as a guess, if you look at the yearly charts, I'd think it could be safe to buy when the prices drop down to where they were (for any area) before they gapped up.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for LongIslandBubble
*****
I am glad that my client just closed on a duplex that was appraised at 270k but paid only 246k for it.
*****

Won't they be proud when duplexes just like it sell for under $200k?
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for caliguy
Contributions: 1283
In case anyone missed this from the AP story:

"Analysts said the current downturn is already more severe than the housing slump of the 1990s. They predicted that before it is resolved, it will rival the 1980-82 housing slump. Back then, the industry was battered by double-digit mortgage rates and the economy was in a steep recession."

Hard to argue with that.
http://tinyurl.com/32qrb4
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October 24 2007
This is absolutely the BEST time for buyers to be out there purchasing a home. Price are not only low but negotiable! Interest rates are terrific! Obviously you don't remember the double digit interest rates in the late '80's. Don't miss the ship before it sales, because I believe rates will go up after the first of the year (that is my personal opinion). Parents that have kids in college should definately be purchasing a investment property for their son/daughter to live in instead of paying the high cost of on campus housing. Feel free to email me at ssimpson@sabrinasimpson.com if you have any questions.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for mrfnuts
Contributions: 1353
Another cheerleader
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for Bette Defarm
Contributions: 4638
Sabrina Simpson is yet one more example of why the RE industry is so distrusted, that it is embarrassing to work within the present system.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for chuckdog24
Contributions: 1521
Yea, it's the same NAR speak that she's pasting into other threads too.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for fillm0re
Contributions: 116
---Why would you buy anything right now? ---

if rent is currently 1700/mo and one is able to find something they like for only 300-400/mo more, it seems to make sense rather than throwing away twenty grand a year. if they cant.....oh well, just wait it out and see.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for mrfnuts
Contributions: 1353
Equivalent places where available for 300-400 more than rent back 7 years ago. That's when I was buying, and buying I did.

Now, your same $1700 rental costs an additional $1700 each month more to buy.

Of course I'm talking about the two areas I have lived in (NY and CA, with CA being even worse).
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for fillm0re
Contributions: 116
its not quite that bad in seattle. im not saying theyre easy to find, but ive been seeing decent signs and expect to see a little better heading into winter.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for LongIslandBubble
*******expect to see a little better heading into winter.

Yes and:

expect to see even better the summer after

expect to see even better the winter after

expect to see even better the summer after

expect to see even better the winter after

expect to see even better the summer after

expect to see even better the winter after

expect to see even better the summer after

expect to see even better the winter after

....you get the idea.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for fillm0re
Contributions: 116
yes, prices are on the decline, but its also about location and theyre only going to decline so much in eastside seattle because its the only decent commute in the entire pacific northwest. with microsoft expanding to a downtown bellevue office and looking to add upwards of 30k new jobs across its campuses, thats a lot of potential buyers to compete with. if house prices get anywhere close to 400/mo higher than current rent i will be ready to buy and not even worry about what happens in the near future.
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October 24 2007
Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6653
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Since September 2009

"Its not biased if you truly feel that the market will go back up, no matter what your profession is."

It is biased when nothing backs it up and your job is contingent upon people believing that. Sheesh, so shameless.
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October 25 2007

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