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Replies (7)
- wetdawgs
- Contributions:26854
Rock bottom is further away than "just around the corner". Save your pennies, you'll be glad you did.
- Sergio Hernandez, "Sergio Hernandez"
- Contributions:619
Timing a purchase is risky business!
No one knows with any real certainty where property values are headed.
Location and property styles will influence values as they always have, therefore some values will continue to decline, or remain flat, while others have already started increasing.
If we're not at rock bottom, we have to be close.
No one knows with any real certainty where property values are headed.
Location and property styles will influence values as they always have, therefore some values will continue to decline, or remain flat, while others have already started increasing.
If we're not at rock bottom, we have to be close.
"if we are not at rock bottom, we have to be close" WHY? because you say so? Ever heard of backing up an opinion with oh, I don't know, maybe some facts or data?
Sales have taken a drastic plunge, since the first time buyer's credit ended, meanwhile foreclosure filings have ramped up. So, Take a look at the first chapter of any economics book you happen to find laying around, and see what happens to price, when Supply increases, and Demand drops.
"nobody knows" whatever. The don't call them the LAWS of supply and demand because nobody knows anything about them!
Home prices are sticky, they don't fluctuate every second like a stock. If a seller, say a bank, can't sell a home for several months, THEN they start dropping the price. The dynamics of the housing market took a very bad turn, after the credit ended, we now have 12 months supply at current sales rate, the highest it has been during this crisis! prices are starting to drop now, and will drop until the supply and demand change, so either foreclosures better stop, or buying has to pick up a ton. Good luck with either of those changing in the next six months!
Phx median for August, $118K down from $130K in May. Read my prior posts, I predicted all of this, so am I Nobody, since Nobody knows?
link to my prior predictions.
Sales have taken a drastic plunge, since the first time buyer's credit ended, meanwhile foreclosure filings have ramped up. So, Take a look at the first chapter of any economics book you happen to find laying around, and see what happens to price, when Supply increases, and Demand drops.
"nobody knows" whatever. The don't call them the LAWS of supply and demand because nobody knows anything about them!
Home prices are sticky, they don't fluctuate every second like a stock. If a seller, say a bank, can't sell a home for several months, THEN they start dropping the price. The dynamics of the housing market took a very bad turn, after the credit ended, we now have 12 months supply at current sales rate, the highest it has been during this crisis! prices are starting to drop now, and will drop until the supply and demand change, so either foreclosures better stop, or buying has to pick up a ton. Good luck with either of those changing in the next six months!
Phx median for August, $118K down from $130K in May. Read my prior posts, I predicted all of this, so am I Nobody, since Nobody knows?
link to my prior predictions.
- Chris Spina, "Spina Realty"
- Contributions:181
Good evening. Given the economic situation with recent year over year statistics, I have to believe that there is further downside in the housing market. Despite very low interest rates, loans are hard to get. The uncertainity in the economy is placing some people on the sidelines. As to Naples, there are some properties and areas that are below cost basis. One has to bid at discount to hedge their bet against the future. In my humble opinion I truly believe that we will see a further price decline for the next 12 months or so until short sales and foreclosures are flushed out or at least revealed. If you want to buy in Naples, do it, but be informed as there are some great deals out there but not in totality.
- LaNita Cates, "remaxagent33"
- Contributions:289
No one has a crystal ball when and if we are at rock bottom. You buy because you found a house you love and in this market, you are getting a deal.
- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4699
Florida and california with los vegas did most of the real bad lending on houses. Many mortgages are going to reset or recast. Then people who could afford to pay their interest only loan will be unable to pay the bill. This will be happening until 2012.
We will have a massive inventory of foreclosures there. It will be years before that is naturally absorbed.
Buying now is a money losing proposition in florida.
We will have a massive inventory of foreclosures there. It will be years before that is naturally absorbed.
Buying now is a money losing proposition in florida.
- Gannet
- Contributions:76
Florida has the highest rate of troubled mortgages in the country. Hence I think we can reason that Florida has a higher rate of families with damaged credit. Florida had among the biggest runups in the bubble, and hence the homes are "more over-valued". Florida has very high unemployment. Most of the homes already foreclosed haven't been released to market yet. Most (all?) areas in Florida are still not down to their long-term trendline price.
What does all that say to you?
To me it says: 1-4 years before bottom. Long-term trendlines say another 15-20% down to go. If we overshoot below the trendline, which is normal in a correction, it will be more than that, for a period.
Naples is basically a retirement/second home community. There is no local industry other than healthcare to take care of the retirees, and some financial/insurance stuff. The whole notion of a second home is becoming a thing of the past for many, and as for retirement, well, looked at your 401k lately? As to financial/insurance, how are those industres doing? So I don't see anything driving a ramp-up of demand in Naples specifically. In other words, I would expect it to do no better, and probably worse, than other, more dynamic areas of Florida.
Rent now. Buy later.
What does all that say to you?
To me it says: 1-4 years before bottom. Long-term trendlines say another 15-20% down to go. If we overshoot below the trendline, which is normal in a correction, it will be more than that, for a period.
Naples is basically a retirement/second home community. There is no local industry other than healthcare to take care of the retirees, and some financial/insurance stuff. The whole notion of a second home is becoming a thing of the past for many, and as for retirement, well, looked at your 401k lately? As to financial/insurance, how are those industres doing? So I don't see anything driving a ramp-up of demand in Naples specifically. In other words, I would expect it to do no better, and probably worse, than other, more dynamic areas of Florida.
Rent now. Buy later.
Will home prices in SWFLA continue to fall?
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- 0.0/5.0
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