Will rates go down after the first of the year?

  • December 09 2010 - Cincinnati
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Answers (20)

Profile picture for blue screen exile
Silver and Gold are not good indicators of inflation, they are better indicators of fear of the volatility of the stock market and bond market.  People bought gold fearing a stock market decline and no return on bonds and intentional government inflation.  People bought silver thinking the price was exceptionally low compared to gold.  (1/64 as compared to normal 1/16).

Better indicators of inflation are a composite of sugar, rice, and oil.  But even there, they are influenced a lot by speculation.  It is what people use that matters, not what people hoard and hide.  Sure, there are uses for gold in the electronics, jewelry and dentistry industries, and there are uses for silver in electrical distribution, jewelry, dining service, and dentistry industries, but these industries are not what sets the price.  The price is set entirely on speculation and fear.
  • December 09 2010
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My sense is that the trend is that rates are heading up with inflation being the key worry (oil, copper, silver, gold prices all up).  That said, nothing moves in a straight line historically, so I'm sure we'll see dips in interest rates along the way. 

Some are saying the Chinese are dumping some of the massive US Treasuries which is partly to blame for the recent spike in rates.  However, as rates rise, then more and more yield hungry buyers will move in to offset the selling.  

I'm guessing that we'll dip back down slightly at the start of the year (10 YR TR around 3.00% - 3.10%) and see another upward leg in rates around spring.

 

  • December 09 2010
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Profile picture for blue screen exile
When this question was asked last February, I said hovering around 5% with lots of movement up and down; but then in the summer it dropped substantially without much pre-warning, and then again the week before thanksgiving, getting us down below 4%, when the previous recent low was 4-3/8% on thanksgiving weekend 2009.

So, I'm now thinking 4.75% ±1% for most of January through March with quite a bit of fluctuation as the stock market, employment numbers, and Consumer price index continue to jump around.

And I'll probably be just as wrong this time as last February.

And I'm only paying attention to the median quote for 30 year fixed on ZMM for 680+ FICO <80% LTV.
  • December 09 2010
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Does LoanDogAZ, have any handy stock tips to go with that bold assertion? Also, why does LoanDogAZ speak of himself/herself in the 3rd person? HUGD thinks that's a little freaky!
  • December 09 2010
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LoanDogAz sees rates coming back down after Jan 1 2011.  Just when that will occur is the $64,000 question.  Predictions for 2011 look like we will see some more of the low rates we saw this year.  Originators will have to be poised and ready for the "dips" in rates.  They will be blown away just as quickly as they were in the last few weeks. 
  • December 09 2010
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no
  • December 09 2010
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Clay,

MBS prices got better for many weeks as the Fed first announced QE2, go back and look at the charts from August (when they first mentioned it) through the end of September. Then they traded sideways until prices started to fall mid-late November. When it was finally implemented investors had already "bought on the news" for a couple of months, that's why they didn't keep getting better once the Fed actually started buying.

As far as the stock market the last few days; QE2 wasn't just the last few days. I've been trying to figure out where all that money went myself, most are saying it's just sitting on the sidelines until investors can figure out what to do with it (with PIMCO selling into the Fed's buying and nothing being normal at the moment I don't blame them). I guess we'll see as time goes on.
  • December 09 2010
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Mortgage rates have only climbed since QE2 started, 1 of their objectives was to drive investors into other markets which seems to have happened. If all the money that came out of the bond market in the last few days went into the stock market, why isnt the Dow up another 500?
  • December 09 2010
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Also remember, the Fed may be a net buyer right now but they don't just sit on these securities forever. They sell them back into the market all the time and will do so at a much faster pace once we see real recovery and when inflation starts to rear it's ugly head.
  • December 09 2010
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Dan,

When QE2 was even rumored rates went down, then when it was introduced rates went down. Then PIMCO started selling into the Fed's buying, and rates started getting a little worse. Money also started flowing out of bonds and into stocks because of various reports (even though investors ignored the negative reports, such as 9.8 unemployment), and it got even stronger after the announced tax cut agreement between Obama and the Republicans (making stocks even more attractive).

No one is looking at inflation at this point. We're looking at near deflation right now. Inflation will come one day, but the consensus is it's a LONG way off.

  • December 09 2010
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Profile picture for Dunes....
"The message was clear."

That's your perception & interpretation Dan...not a fact
  • December 09 2010
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Profile picture for the_country_hick
It all depends on the investors.

Once QE2 was introduced rates went up. The message was clear. Money is going to be devalued greatly with massive inflation in the future.

What would happen to change investors perceptions now?
  • December 09 2010
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Profile picture for Dunes....
Yep
  • December 09 2010
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yes.
  • December 09 2010
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I agree with Greg on this one. I strongly believe rates will slowly trickle back down and hold for a month or two. I expect rates to the creep back up in the spring.  
  • December 09 2010
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This market is so crazy lately it's impossible to tell. Common knowledge and using economic indicators/charts/etc are pretty much out the window.

I feel that they will go down, at least back down to where they were a month ago because all the recent selling in bonds has been unwarranted, the market is in for a major correction. Especially with unemployment going UP, not down, and all the financial crisis in Europe getting worse, not better, US bonds will be the only safe bet for the world to invest in (the safest anyways). Rates should come back down the low 4's at some point.

But even if they do, don't expect them to stay there for too long. Looking at a sub-5% rate and wanting better is a foolish game. Aside from 2010 there hasn't be any significant period of time where 30 year fixed rate mortgages had rates that started with a 4 and there is a good chance it won't happen again (at least for a long time).

Greg

  • December 09 2010
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Impossible to predict in advance.  If the economic numbers get weak again rates could go down again.....if numbers are strong, the opposite is true :(
  • December 09 2010
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No one knows, but I do not think they will drop, I suspect they will hover near where they are or head up.
  • December 09 2010
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Unfortunately, where rates will go is anybody's guess.
  • December 09 2010
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Maybe, maybe not.
  • December 09 2010
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