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Answers (12)
- Call The Sisters, "Call The Sisters"
- Contributions:373
An estimate is an estimate. No national site can take into account every nuance in a given area.
An appraiser is licensed and trained to base his/her appraisal on given criteria drawn from your local market within a narrow framework of time. The comp properties are "like" and documented as part of the result.
Your lending institution relies on the appraised value not the Zestimate. The bank will not loan money on a Zestimate. Only a certified appraisal.
As a Realtor I put zero stock in a Zestimate. I rely on the most up to date information gleaned from my MLS. That is the same source the appraiser uses.
Tell your wife not to worry. The appraiser is a professional and has to maintain educational and licensure requirements. The bank will not put their money at risk.
An appraiser is licensed and trained to base his/her appraisal on given criteria drawn from your local market within a narrow framework of time. The comp properties are "like" and documented as part of the result.
Your lending institution relies on the appraised value not the Zestimate. The bank will not loan money on a Zestimate. Only a certified appraisal.
As a Realtor I put zero stock in a Zestimate. I rely on the most up to date information gleaned from my MLS. That is the same source the appraiser uses.
Tell your wife not to worry. The appraiser is a professional and has to maintain educational and licensure requirements. The bank will not put their money at risk.
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21466
You will notice from the earlier charts that many of those with low Zestimates are still 15% low, and some at 20% low, and even one or more at about 62% low.
From the data you gave about your present Zestimate and recent sale and appraisal, your Zestimate is about 20.5% low.
This is entirely possible as indicated by the chart. Remember, you are dealing with probabilities and statistics here, not absolutes nor appraisals!
But in any case, when there is such a discrepancy, it is nice to see which of the 9 data items from the county records may be throwing the estimate off and why. What is different about your property from these items as compared to the neighboring properties?
1) house sqft
2) lot sqft
3) # bedrooms
4) # bathrooms
5) # stories
6) year built
7) tax assessed value (adjusted for local rules)
8) last sold price/date
9) covered parking (if in the county records).
From the data you gave about your present Zestimate and recent sale and appraisal, your Zestimate is about 20.5% low.
This is entirely possible as indicated by the chart. Remember, you are dealing with probabilities and statistics here, not absolutes nor appraisals!
But in any case, when there is such a discrepancy, it is nice to see which of the 9 data items from the county records may be throwing the estimate off and why. What is different about your property from these items as compared to the neighboring properties?
1) house sqft
2) lot sqft
3) # bedrooms
4) # bathrooms
5) # stories
6) year built
7) tax assessed value (adjusted for local rules)
8) last sold price/date
9) covered parking (if in the county records).
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21466
One thing that is noticed comparing the charts for Recently sold, verses listed is that the ones estimated too high are not brought down on the estimate after the sale; only the ones that were estimated too low are brought up!
Often, the ones estimated too high are due to being in some state of "fixer" condition which the county records info has no information on, so Zillow does not adjust for the "fixer" costs required. And some of the ones with sale prices below the Zestimate are family transfers or similar, so again, it does not affect the estimate.
So, I'm posting the %Zestimate to listing price as a function of listing price again so that you can compare "before and after" sale difference.
You will notice, that it is the ones that Zillow estimated too low that are adjusted upward toward the sale price; not the others being estimated down.
Web address for full size image to read the numbers:
http://photos3.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i5/i7519/IS1ht1e6q21e0f7.jpg
Enlarged; for the ≤$1 million listings, ±40% difference range:
web address for full sized image:
http://photos3.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i5/i7521/ISg9mmsr5txjmr.jpg
Often, the ones estimated too high are due to being in some state of "fixer" condition which the county records info has no information on, so Zillow does not adjust for the "fixer" costs required. And some of the ones with sale prices below the Zestimate are family transfers or similar, so again, it does not affect the estimate.
So, I'm posting the %Zestimate to listing price as a function of listing price again so that you can compare "before and after" sale difference.
You will notice, that it is the ones that Zillow estimated too low that are adjusted upward toward the sale price; not the others being estimated down.
Web address for full size image to read the numbers:
http://photos3.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i5/i7519/IS1ht1e6q21e0f7.jpg
Enlarged; for the ≤$1 million listings, ±40% difference range:
web address for full sized image:
http://photos3.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i5/i7521/ISg9mmsr5txjmr.jpg
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4398
Tell to your wife that she does not worry. Like 10s other websites, Zillow matches the Zestimate value to the sold price after the house is purchased, the neighbor's Zestimate that you see today is not the Zestimate which you see before the neighbor's house is purchased.
The History will be repeated, someday, one of your neighbor are going to ask on Zillow's advice that "My neighbor, who just bought the home for $415K and Zestimate is $416K (very close), And I'm also bought the similar house for $417k while Zestimate is $450K, am I got a good deal?".
The History will be repeated, someday, one of your neighbor are going to ask on Zillow's advice that "My neighbor, who just bought the home for $415K and Zestimate is $416K (very close), And I'm also bought the similar house for $417k while Zestimate is $450K, am I got a good deal?".
- Conor McGinley, "ConorMcGinley"
- Contributions:29
The true answer here silver is that zestimates are what they are, a guess an estimate incompasing a couple of factors, they are a mere guideline. They are not a true reflection of value. Having a professional appraisal done is the only true and accurate way to value your home. I work in bucks county so if you ever have any questions or would like a CMA done please feel free to contact me.
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21466
This is difficult to analyze as when the property sells, the new Z-estimate is affected by the sales in the area and the new sale price in the county record data (as sold price and date is one of the 9 county record variables used).
So, a couple days ago I had downloaded the "recently sold" data (within past 12 months) for Pasadena and graphed the % difference of Z-estimate to sale price by sale price, with different colors for "above" and "below".
But I hadn't posted the result as I consider it meaningless.
But since you asked, here it is:
web address:
http://photos2.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i5/i8099/IS1hzuuq1bosiw3.jpg
enlarged for sale price under $1 million:
web address:
http://photos1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i5/i8099/IS1hzuuq59r0mub.jpg
So, a couple days ago I had downloaded the "recently sold" data (within past 12 months) for Pasadena and graphed the % difference of Z-estimate to sale price by sale price, with different colors for "above" and "below".
But I hadn't posted the result as I consider it meaningless.
But since you asked, here it is:
web address:
http://photos2.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i5/i8099/IS1hzuuq1bosiw3.jpg
enlarged for sale price under $1 million:
web address:
http://photos1.zillow.com/is/image/i0/i5/i8099/IS1hzuuq59r0mub.jpg
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4398
- silver0708
- Contributions:2
Just some clarification...this home was bought in Chalfont, PA area. It is a rural area about 30 min outside of Philadelphia. It is a restored farmhouse with major upgrades. Even new electrical & plumbing, new Anderson windows, new roof. I understand it doesn't take the upgrades and features into account but it seems that about all the homes we have looked at on this website , that have sold, the Zestimate is pretty close to the sale of the homes (within 5%). With a $415,000 sale, we are around 20% over the Zestimate. Any thoughts?
- Vince Curtis, "SoCal Appraiser"
- Contributions:4699
I do the same, albeit informally, and for the So Cal area Zillow is pretty good, excpet for some bad guesses with short sales. Zillow does the same that you did and publishes their error rates - its good to know.
Just like with appraisals - the more urban the area, the more data, the higher accuracy you will find with Zestimates.
Just like with appraisals - the more urban the area, the more data, the higher accuracy you will find with Zestimates.
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4398
If I know your address, I can make a guess.
- jbone108
- Contributions:9
A Z-estimate is just that a estimate. I just purchased a home for 255k the Z-Estimate is 465K. It appraised for 300k
- wetdawgs
- Contributions:26854
Elsewhere on this site, there are statistics about actual sales price vs Zestimate for many major metropolitan areas in the US. (I'd pull it up for you but am typing from the muddled brain function of a high fever) The Zestimate doesn't take into account several features that may add value to your home (pools, views, upgrades etc) that the appraiser does take into account.
"Z-estimate" Versus the Sale of the Home
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