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Replies (15)
- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4700
Rachel, "the difference each home has in the price history and the tax history... If your price history is blank, and your neighbor says they last sold their home in June of '09 for $350,000, this is why they have a higher zestimate."
That does not make sense. If my house was last bought in 1948 for $2,500 that does not change its current value of $185,000. The same way if a house was bought for $350,000 in 2006 at the top of the bubble that does not make it worth over $185,000 today.
What a house was purchased for at any given point in time has zero relation to what it is worth today.
The zestimate should not be looking at the purchase price of an individual house to determine that houses zestimated value today. It should instead be looking at several different sales of many comparable houses that sold to determine a zestimate value.
The tax valuation history I can understand. All houses in an area should be within a specified range supported by those tax assessments based on square feet and lot size. Although the tax bill may say the house is worth $100k that can be easily changed with a multiplier based on recent sales to determine it should be changed (increased as an example 48% to a zestimated value of $148k) to show a reasonable number.
The zestimate model needs work.
That does not make sense. If my house was last bought in 1948 for $2,500 that does not change its current value of $185,000. The same way if a house was bought for $350,000 in 2006 at the top of the bubble that does not make it worth over $185,000 today.
What a house was purchased for at any given point in time has zero relation to what it is worth today.
The zestimate should not be looking at the purchase price of an individual house to determine that houses zestimated value today. It should instead be looking at several different sales of many comparable houses that sold to determine a zestimate value.
The tax valuation history I can understand. All houses in an area should be within a specified range supported by those tax assessments based on square feet and lot size. Although the tax bill may say the house is worth $100k that can be easily changed with a multiplier based on recent sales to determine it should be changed (increased as an example 48% to a zestimated value of $148k) to show a reasonable number.
The zestimate model needs work.
- Vince Curtis, "SoCal Appraiser"
- Contributions:4699
Tax and price history aside, I see many times where identical homes or condo units DONT sell at exactly the same price, even on the same dates. WHY ? There are just too many variables involved. Sometimes even the efforts of an REA will determine the final selling price. Its actually RARE that two identical homes or condos will sell at exactly the same price, even if the units are new with identical upgrades.
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21466
Dan, the price purchased and date sold is only one variable, and the purchase price is adjusted for "housing inflation" according to data purchased prior to using in the modeling and extrapolation. It is only one piece of data. The modeling of the non-distressed recently sold properties in the area determine the weighting of the various variables.
- Rachel Rosen, "RachelRosen"
- Contributions:1494
Let me clarify a bit. The price history IS only one factor in the zestimate. However, it is an important one.
Simply put, what a buyer pays for a home IS the actual market value of that home on that day the purchase is completed.
"The zestimate should not be looking at the purchase price of an individual house to determine that houses zestimated value today"
-Dan
-Correct. It is only ONE data point.
"It should instead be looking at several different sales of many comparable houses that sold to determine a zestimate value."
-Dan
-Correct, that is what we do.
We use millions of data points to calculate zestimates. The price history is just part of that for not only that home, but every home.
Simply put, what a buyer pays for a home IS the actual market value of that home on that day the purchase is completed.
"The zestimate should not be looking at the purchase price of an individual house to determine that houses zestimated value today"
-Dan
-Correct. It is only ONE data point.
"It should instead be looking at several different sales of many comparable houses that sold to determine a zestimate value."
-Dan
-Correct, that is what we do.
We use millions of data points to calculate zestimates. The price history is just part of that for not only that home, but every home.
- CareyCox Angell
- Contributions:1
I've got one for ya...I want to bid on a home today. I know up front that if I do this, I will be entering into a dual agency (not agent, but agency broker/agent employer) situation as the listing agent and my agent both work at and for 'boss broker's' agency..It happens,that's not the 'good part"...'boss broker's' son is the owner of the property i want to bid on. 'Son' is also a general contractor who owns his own contracting/ construction, etc agency. Yeah, they're flipping but the flips are not your typical....Great neighborhoods with homes that were 'fancy schmancy " when they were built typically 50-70 yrs ago...Completely rennovated with pretty much the original footprint, but high end materials, new everything..roof, heat and air units, water heaters, electric wiring new throughout, new gas line, ...All the stuff that well, just has lived it's time and needs to be replaced. The inner footprint on mine has been changed ever so slightly and makes the 1300 sq ft. honestly feel like about 2000 to me, I love it. The materials, fixtures...pretties...all top notch high quality not look alike
stuff is only outdone in my opinion by the quality of the labor behind it....breathtaking, honestly.
So anyway, there's no catch...I know the home I'm buying is one of these, I know who the players are, I know the list price...but no price history. I've also located my 'comp' property..Almost identical twins.. to an almost scary degree ..I have a price history for it and I like it...purchased feb this year for 83,000, 4 months off marked, listed for sale 118,000 July this year, sold Aug this year for 113,500. I'd honestly have felt great being on either end of that deal. I do not know, however, WHO the players were on my comp. Comp house 2 blocks from the house I want to buy, same size, same housing edition, exact same type of flip done to the home...to the point I'm noticing in my pics and viewings they're so similar that the pretties are exactly the same as is the workmanship. It's really obvious to the eye that at least the 'flip'er (contractor and his subs) are one in the same on my wanna house and my comp. I do not, however, have a price history for the home I want to purchase, only a list price of 129,900.
Where, how, and how fast can I as Joe public (or can I) get a price history on the home I want to buy? It would be cool to also know the listing and buyers agents...the seller if possible of my comp...we all know where I'm going with this..Regardless of the info I'd like to have regarding my comp home, I don't feel I NEED it to pick my numbers for my bid, I'm just snoopy I guess. I 'd feel much more confident and quite honestly secure about my bid though with the numbers....
How can I as joe public (or can I) get the price history on the home I'd like to bid on. The section for it here on zillow, is unfortunately blank...
help?
stuff is only outdone in my opinion by the quality of the labor behind it....breathtaking, honestly.
So anyway, there's no catch...I know the home I'm buying is one of these, I know who the players are, I know the list price...but no price history. I've also located my 'comp' property..Almost identical twins.. to an almost scary degree ..I have a price history for it and I like it...purchased feb this year for 83,000, 4 months off marked, listed for sale 118,000 July this year, sold Aug this year for 113,500. I'd honestly have felt great being on either end of that deal. I do not know, however, WHO the players were on my comp. Comp house 2 blocks from the house I want to buy, same size, same housing edition, exact same type of flip done to the home...to the point I'm noticing in my pics and viewings they're so similar that the pretties are exactly the same as is the workmanship. It's really obvious to the eye that at least the 'flip'er (contractor and his subs) are one in the same on my wanna house and my comp. I do not, however, have a price history for the home I want to purchase, only a list price of 129,900.
Where, how, and how fast can I as Joe public (or can I) get a price history on the home I want to buy? It would be cool to also know the listing and buyers agents...the seller if possible of my comp...we all know where I'm going with this..Regardless of the info I'd like to have regarding my comp home, I don't feel I NEED it to pick my numbers for my bid, I'm just snoopy I guess. I 'd feel much more confident and quite honestly secure about my bid though with the numbers....
How can I as joe public (or can I) get the price history on the home I'd like to bid on. The section for it here on zillow, is unfortunately blank...
help?
- JOE REA, "BARONS"
- Contributions:12
carey, have your realtor on mls pull tax id for that home. it will show everyone who owned it from day 1 & prices.have realtor take you to the comp,better to inspect personally.than pics.sometimes they only show the good pics,not bad ones to get you there.also your realtor should have lists all cma.also see how many days its been on the market.any price reductions from original price.good luck im realtor in hb california prudential.
- Kim Banks, "Kim Banks"
- Contributions:21
Hi Carey, Sometimes it's hard to take that plunge, but it sounds like you LOVE this house! If you get caught up in over-analyzing it, you may risk losing it to someone else! Put in an offer that feels reasonable to you, and add an appraisal contingency, or the stipulation that you will pay "contract price or appraisal price, whichever is less." Or, if you'd feel more comfortable, just get an appraisal first, and then use that pricepoint to guide you in your offer. Good luck! Sounds like a beautiful home with all the bells and whistles! Nice!!
Kim Banks, Realtor in Savannah Georgia
[hotlink removed by Zillow moderator]
Kim Banks, Realtor in Savannah Georgia
[hotlink removed by Zillow moderator]
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25139
@Carey If Zillow does not have the past sales price listed, you can ask a local agent if the past sales are showing up in the MLS or you can get them from your local assessor or recorders office as part of the public record for free.
- Reba Haas, "reba_haas"
- Contributions:620
Be careful what you promise about what agents can and can't pull from their own MLS, not all MLS systems are set up the same and some will only show history back a certain timeline (like the NWMLS is about 8 years). Some of the tax info we can access goes back a ways, but that too has its limitations. Someone would need to access the recording office data for the county they are looking in to get all recorded information on a house. Even then, some of the data posted will not give everything you want. It's a number of steps in some cases (but not all).
- MarKus McClellan, "MarKusGroup"
- Contributions:106
Zestimate is based on public records.
- Rachel Rosen, "RachelRosen"
- Contributions:1494
Hi Markus,
The Zestimate is based on multiple items. You can click on the link in the top of the post for more information.
The Zestimate is based on multiple items. You can click on the link in the top of the post for more information.
- Jack Dudenhoeffer, Broker, "cycad1234"
- Contributions:22
The basic model needs to take into account location,view,lot size and overall quality of construction....more work may be necessary.
Dan the Country Hick is absolutely correct. It's all based on comparable sales. Appraisal 101
- Rachel Rosen, "RachelRosen"
- Contributions:1494
@ Jack Dudenhoeffer,
Sales transaction information is part of the zestimate. By default, a sale price already reflects location,view, lot size, and construction quality.
A buyer will pay more for a better view, a bigger lot (if wanted), a better location, and a higher quality home. This results in a higher sale price, which is calculated into the zestimate(s).
Sales transaction information is part of the zestimate. By default, a sale price already reflects location,view, lot size, and construction quality.
A buyer will pay more for a better view, a bigger lot (if wanted), a better location, and a higher quality home. This results in a higher sale price, which is calculated into the zestimate(s).
- SoCal_Engr
- Contributions:5667
I've been giving thought to the notion of comparable sales and their role in any valuation.
During the run-up to the bubble, comporable sales supported the escalating prices - even in the face of other information (e.g. salaries, amouint of market leverage, etc.). On the downswing, the inclusion of short-sales and foreclosures into the comporables has the opposite effect.
And, so...?
Absent some moderating factor, I question the actual value of the "comporable sales" data points. It assumes that the current market accurately reflects value, and is not being skewed by external factors.
While comporable sales can be used as an indicator, things like "cost to build" or "cost to replace" are likely a better indicator of basic valuation - as these are less likely to be influenced by "human factors".
During the run-up to the bubble, comporable sales supported the escalating prices - even in the face of other information (e.g. salaries, amouint of market leverage, etc.). On the downswing, the inclusion of short-sales and foreclosures into the comporables has the opposite effect.
And, so...?
Absent some moderating factor, I question the actual value of the "comporable sales" data points. It assumes that the current market accurately reflects value, and is not being skewed by external factors.
While comporable sales can be used as an indicator, things like "cost to build" or "cost to replace" are likely a better indicator of basic valuation - as these are less likely to be influenced by "human factors".
Zestimates: Price History + Tax History
similar?"
The most common reason after investigation is the difference each home has in the price history and the tax history.
The zestimate will always be more accurate with more information. First check to see if the home facts are complete. This includes bedroom count, bathroom count, square feet of the home, and lot size.
Your price history is below the zestimate chart. Make sure to check it out! If your price history is blank, and your neighbor says they last sold their home in June of '09 for $350,000, this is why they have a higher zestimate.
Here is the to our Zestimate FAQ
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