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Replies (10)
- Cindy Quinton, "Cindy Quinton"
- Contributions:1330
I don't know if I would call any of what he said "not good." Honestly, if we really are finally within months of a leveling out (bottom) and we have less than 5 to 10% to fall, I mean that is practically the light at the end of the tunnel, if it's not a new train...
I hope we are already leveled off here in OK.
I hope we are already leveled off here in OK.
- Pat Pribisko, "Pat Pribisko"
- Contributions:1426
The CEO of Zillow gave his opinion of the U.S. in gereral. We all need to look at our local markets. I, personally, believe that Northeastern OH, has hit bottom. Buyers are out looking for homes in the middle of January, in the snow. That's a good sign when we are in a recession and in an election year.
- Debra (Debbie) Rose, "Livingston NJ"
- Contributions:2736
well, Spencer gave his opinion.........3-5% further decline over the next year......then perhaps a leveling off, followed by some chugging along and flatlining for a few years.......
so.......he might be right....
he might be wrong....
kind of like the zestimate
so.......he might be right....
he might be wrong....
kind of like the zestimate
- Hamp Yonce, "Zilluminati"
- Contributions:3463
All I could wonder, while watching RE Wonderboy Rascoff's comments, was how does he know? He doesn't even have a RE license. Is he an Economist? I think he implied he is. I thought he was a Computer Media Goober. Economist are like the wrongest people in the multiverse; right in there with meteorologists, psychics, and sports betting prognosticators. They couldn't pick their noses.
I hope he's right. He sounds about right. His statements align with my gut instincts. It depends on global economics, a lot, unfortunately.
I hope he's right. He sounds about right. His statements align with my gut instincts. It depends on global economics, a lot, unfortunately.
- Tug of War
- Contributions:1975
I think he'll tell any story, push any scenario to point out Agents need to buy Zip Codes and Consumers should use Zillow.....think it's more motivated by [You need us..use us..pay us] than any RE or Economic Knowledge
Kinda like the motivation for many Agents who say
"Good time to Buy" ;)
Kinda like the motivation for many Agents who say
"Good time to Buy" ;)
- Dan, "the_country_hick"
- Contributions:4700
Spencer said "we look very closely at delinquencies and late payments on mortgages as a forward indicator of what is going to happen to house values down the road"
Spencer also said he thinks most of the bad loans have already gone bad.
Here is the problem. He is not looking at interest rate risk. He is not looking at buyer demand. He is not looking at lending standards. He is just looking at likely foreclosures. That is an important piece but only one small piece in the puzzle of housing price direction. Late payments do not cause house price declines. Buyers ability and willingness to pay a given price does that.
I personally think Spencer is being overly optimistic. What I see still looks worse than he is saying.
Spencer also said he thinks most of the bad loans have already gone bad.
Here is the problem. He is not looking at interest rate risk. He is not looking at buyer demand. He is not looking at lending standards. He is just looking at likely foreclosures. That is an important piece but only one small piece in the puzzle of housing price direction. Late payments do not cause house price declines. Buyers ability and willingness to pay a given price does that.
I personally think Spencer is being overly optimistic. What I see still looks worse than he is saying.
- hpvanc
- Contributions:2579
I'm sure that Tug is at least partially right. Unfortunately Zillow will proportionally lose credibility as an independent media outlet as the proportion of their revenue from agent and lender programs and advertising increases. If that is the case we may also be looking at the beginning of the end for Zillow.
The really sad thing is that many a wall street investors will like and buy into the idea that the CEO is willing to pander to short term interests, that will ultimately dismantle a companies long term viability. So if Spencer wants to cash in those stock options, his best strategy may be to destroy the future of the company.
The really sad thing is that many a wall street investors will like and buy into the idea that the CEO is willing to pander to short term interests, that will ultimately dismantle a companies long term viability. So if Spencer wants to cash in those stock options, his best strategy may be to destroy the future of the company.
Dan
" Here is the problem. He is not looking at interest rate risk. He is not looking at buyer demand. He is not looking at lending standards. He is just looking at likely foreclosures."
I agree with you as there is only one way interest rates are going and that is upwards, and that will bring further pressures on homeowners. I have attached the link to Thursday's Closing Bell interview with Mr Rascoff on CNBC where he said that homes prices are "limping along the bottom with only 25 - 4% decline in 2012" which is slightly better than the original video prediction. But if he is using his algorithm as a basis of hs forecast he may has well been on SNL as CNBC.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000067185#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMDY3NDIxIiwiZW5jVmlkIjoiTUVwWTJ4bnI3cTZMdFFJSzhGZytsdz09IiwidlRhYiI6InRyYW5zY3JpcHQiLCJ2UGFnZSI6IiIsImdOYXYiOlsiwqBMYXRlc3QgVmlkZW8iXSwiZ1NlY3QiOiJBTEwiLCJnUGFnZSI6IjEiLCJzeW0iOiIiLCJzZWFyY2giOiIifQ==
" Here is the problem. He is not looking at interest rate risk. He is not looking at buyer demand. He is not looking at lending standards. He is just looking at likely foreclosures."
I agree with you as there is only one way interest rates are going and that is upwards, and that will bring further pressures on homeowners. I have attached the link to Thursday's Closing Bell interview with Mr Rascoff on CNBC where he said that homes prices are "limping along the bottom with only 25 - 4% decline in 2012" which is slightly better than the original video prediction. But if he is using his algorithm as a basis of hs forecast he may has well been on SNL as CNBC.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000067185#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMDY3NDIxIiwiZW5jVmlkIjoiTUVwWTJ4bnI3cTZMdFFJSzhGZytsdz09IiwidlRhYiI6InRyYW5zY3JpcHQiLCJ2UGFnZSI6IiIsImdOYXYiOlsiwqBMYXRlc3QgVmlkZW8iXSwiZ1NlY3QiOiJBTEwiLCJnUGFnZSI6IjEiLCJzeW0iOiIiLCJzZWFyY2giOiIifQ==
- Pasadenan
- Contributions:21466
Certainly, the CEO of a company can be the official spokes person for the talking points from the statistics derived by their statisticians. And certainly the estimates play a major role in deriving the market indexes. And the Zillow market indexes have been demonstrated to have a very high correlation to Case-Shiller indexes where such indexes are available, but not as prone to influence from foreclosure saturation as the Case-Shiller index is.
Really I don't think he has said anything "new" that hasn't been said in the media recently by others. But I'm a bit more inclined to believe their statistical analysis that many areas are nearing a low point in the pricing than those that have a direct financial interest in selling houses.
Certainly Stan Humphies has spoken on housing financial issues in the past, and certainly he has a right to be such a spokesperson as the Chief Economist for Zillow. But I don't see any problem with him sharing talking points with the CEO.
I certainly trust Stan's opinion on the housing market more than I trust Lawrence Yun's opinion.
But as with all economic forecasts, one should get as many viewpoints as possible, and should verify their assumptions by reviewing their analysis.
I haven't checked recently to see if Robert Shiller has revised his opinion of when the prices will be near minimum. Nor have I recently checked to see if CoreLogic revised their projections.
Really I don't think he has said anything "new" that hasn't been said in the media recently by others. But I'm a bit more inclined to believe their statistical analysis that many areas are nearing a low point in the pricing than those that have a direct financial interest in selling houses.
Certainly Stan Humphies has spoken on housing financial issues in the past, and certainly he has a right to be such a spokesperson as the Chief Economist for Zillow. But I don't see any problem with him sharing talking points with the CEO.
I certainly trust Stan's opinion on the housing market more than I trust Lawrence Yun's opinion.
But as with all economic forecasts, one should get as many viewpoints as possible, and should verify their assumptions by reviewing their analysis.
I haven't checked recently to see if Robert Shiller has revised his opinion of when the prices will be near minimum. Nor have I recently checked to see if CoreLogic revised their projections.
- hpvanc
- Contributions:2579
For what it is worth, I think most of the country is nearing the bottom. At least there are unlikely to be annual declines exceeding 1-2% unless the economy hits major deflation. What I don't see is appreciation above 1-2% and quite likely closer to 0% annually, because I think that will be the upper extent of our annual inflation for the next 5 years or more.
Zillow CEO on housing market: 'Not good' What are your thoughts on this video?
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- 4.6/5.0
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