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- Sam DeBord, "SeattleHome.com"
- Contributions:3472
The man tells it like he sees it - no "cheerleading" for the market, just analysis.
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25115
I appreciate the honesty. Time will tell what the market will will do, but at the very least I think planning for a slower recovery benefits the buyer with a more solid long term position overall. The market will recover to normal levels. It will just take some time and the waiting is terrible.
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4385
Not to mention the need of watch the news and reading on Zillow all day.
and a wife beating you down to buy now. Right Hoang? ;-)
- HomeSand.net, "White Picture"
- Contributions:4385
Otherwise, there is no sleeping together. ;-)
What a refreshing paragraph, hats off to Rascoff!
Here is some more anti-spin:
"The economic news these days can be readily parsed into two separate types: increasingly positive “survey” data and increasingly worse “real” data."
"Spin Cycle Set to “High”
Here is some more anti-spin:
"The economic news these days can be readily parsed into two separate types: increasingly positive “survey” data and increasingly worse “real” data."
"Spin Cycle Set to “High”
More refreshing reading:
"The key to housing being the foundation of middle class wealth was not the rise in value--it was the reduction of debt to zero. Removing equity from one's home was unheard of--there were no HELOCs (home equity lines of credit) and second mortgages were modest"
"The key to housing being the foundation of middle class wealth was not the rise in value--it was the reduction of debt to zero. Removing equity from one's home was unheard of--there were no HELOCs (home equity lines of credit) and second mortgages were modest"
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25115
Thanks for the great links.
- Spencer Rascoff, "spencer"
- Contributions:2093
Thanks guys. I call em like I see em. I wish I had better news.
Zillow's 1st Quarter Reports come out tomorrow -- expect to see lots of media coverage, and check our blog for the latest data.
I'll be on CNBC and Fox Business tomorrow morning talking about Zillow's latest housing data. Taking a redeye to Dallas for a conference and straight off the plane into the TV studio. Should be interesting...
Zillow's 1st Quarter Reports come out tomorrow -- expect to see lots of media coverage, and check our blog for the latest data.
I'll be on CNBC and Fox Business tomorrow morning talking about Zillow's latest housing data. Taking a redeye to Dallas for a conference and straight off the plane into the TV studio. Should be interesting...
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25115
All you can do is give them the straight facts. Have a good flight.
- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
Keep up the honest analysis, Spencer. It is appreciated.
Most of us so called "doomers" would like to buy eventually, when our individual markets have stabilized. It's encouraging, not to mention refreshing, to know Zillow values objectivity unlike so many others with a stake in housing that prefer fabricated, distorted and/or manipulated propaganda.
Most of us so called "doomers" would like to buy eventually, when our individual markets have stabilized. It's encouraging, not to mention refreshing, to know Zillow values objectivity unlike so many others with a stake in housing that prefer fabricated, distorted and/or manipulated propaganda.
Well said, Dacolan - I fully agree. Rock on, Spencer!
More un-spin:
"It was a ray of hope in the rainbow of deception and lies. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. After the brutal free-fall, the banks and builders were in a bounce, as was to be expected. That bounce has now run its course and the best way to know it is to hear the pollyana-ish news spewed by analysts and the media, which typically occur at the top of the market. It's the same old scam again — the institutional investors lure you in just before they get out."
"— the institutional investors lure you in just before they get out." <----- Hey maybe we've found out nvchaz's story here.
"It was a ray of hope in the rainbow of deception and lies. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. After the brutal free-fall, the banks and builders were in a bounce, as was to be expected. That bounce has now run its course and the best way to know it is to hear the pollyana-ish news spewed by analysts and the media, which typically occur at the top of the market. It's the same old scam again — the institutional investors lure you in just before they get out."
"— the institutional investors lure you in just before they get out." <----- Hey maybe we've found out nvchaz's story here.
- Amanda Wilson, "WilsonAmanda"
- Contributions:1610
We will see further unemployment figures...reaching 10%--there is definitely more shadow inventory...as banks are holding on--can process what they have in their inventory currently! I do beliefve we will begin to actually see more vital evidence of a recovery in the 3rd-4th quarter of this year--but don't expect too much for this year....2009 is the year of liquidation; followed by 2010--year of recovery............
- Spencer Rascoff, "spencer"
- Contributions:2093
The new Zillow data is out for 1Q09 and it's grim. Here's the Reuters story.
Highlights (or lowlights) are:
- 21.9% of homeowners have negative equity
- Zillow Home Value Index nationwide -- the median value of every single home in the US, not just those that sold in the period -- declined 14.2% year-over-year
The scariest news is that we think there might be about 20 million homes waiting as "shadow inventory", meaning that they will come on the market when things start to improve. (My house is one of them.) This means an "L-shaped" recovery is highly likely.
The good news is that in some markets (e.g., Southern California), the rate of decline is no longer increasing. So things are still bad, but they're not getting more bad than they already are.
The quarterly reports can be found here.
Highlights (or lowlights) are:
- 21.9% of homeowners have negative equity
- Zillow Home Value Index nationwide -- the median value of every single home in the US, not just those that sold in the period -- declined 14.2% year-over-year
The scariest news is that we think there might be about 20 million homes waiting as "shadow inventory", meaning that they will come on the market when things start to improve. (My house is one of them.) This means an "L-shaped" recovery is highly likely.
The good news is that in some markets (e.g., Southern California), the rate of decline is no longer increasing. So things are still bad, but they're not getting more bad than they already are.
The quarterly reports can be found here.
- Spencer Rascoff, "spencer"
- Contributions:2093
[I'm blown away by how helpful Twitter search is when you're following breaking news. I can watch as people across the country read the Reuters story with Zillow data and tweet it. Fascinating.]
- Spencer Rascoff, "spencer"
- Contributions:2093
Here is the main link for the latest Zillow housing data.
- girouard property RE
- Contributions:981
Spencer: if the news is really bad....we'er breaking up...... this time for good.....well maybe next time
"21.9% of homeowners have negative equity"
Absolutely mind blowing, as are the shadow inventory estimates (foreclosures) coupled with this from the Reuters story:
"In a separate survey of homeowner sentiment, nearly one-third, or 31 percent, of homeowners said they would be at least somewhat likely to put their homes on the market in the next 12 months if they saw signs of a recovering real estate market, the reports showed."
Holy inventory Batman.
Absolutely mind blowing, as are the shadow inventory estimates (foreclosures) coupled with this from the Reuters story:
"In a separate survey of homeowner sentiment, nearly one-third, or 31 percent, of homeowners said they would be at least somewhat likely to put their homes on the market in the next 12 months if they saw signs of a recovering real estate market, the reports showed."
Holy inventory Batman.
- Spencer Rascoff, "spencer"
- Contributions:2093
More info... here's my blog post on the topic.
Here's Stan Humphries' (Zillow's head of analytics) post on zillowblog with more data.
Here's the press release.
Here's Stan Humphries' (Zillow's head of analytics) post on zillowblog with more data.
Here's the press release.
- Spencer Rascoff, "spencer"
- Contributions:2093
More info... here's my blog post on the topic.
Here's Stan Humphries' (Zillow's head of analytics) post on zillowblog with more data.
Here's Stan Humphries' (Zillow's head of analytics) post on zillowblog with more data.
Man plans, God laughs.
- Lady Chattel
- Contributions:3110
Thanks Spencer for the great updates. This news doesn't bring joy, there is only validation. Makes it so much easier to feel confidant in the decsions I have made and where I am.
"Zillow's negative equity estimates strike me as a little high," said Richard DeKaser, a real sate analyst and founder of Woodley Park Research in Washington D.C. He pointed out that other estimates of negative equity from Moody's Economy.com, for example, and First American (FAF, Fortune 500) CoreLogic, have not been that elevated.
The last CoreLogic report was for data through the end of 2008 and it estimated that 8.3 million homes were underwater.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/05/real_estate/underwater_homeowners/index.htm?postversion=2009050608
- daveyjones2007
- Contributions:469
I don't see anything in this article about the demand side. The US still has net household formation, which means more houses will be required each year. Yes we overbuilt so there is plenty of excess supply, and yes we overbought and overpaid so there will be a period of low demand and price drops, but after some time of below average purchases there will be pent up demand to buy. Who knows how long it takes but I don't want to ignore it. Did Zillow happen to ask what potential buyers are thinking, while they were surveying potential sellers?
Not trying to get bullish here, just want to see both sides of the story.
Not trying to get bullish here, just want to see both sides of the story.
Another big wild card here is government intervention. Zillow can't get a handle on that because it can't be tracked by historical data or current, (though lagging), statistics.
Programs have been put in place, some are on the way, and others are now are being cooked up. The only prediction that I think is fair to make is that government will strongly intervene in a somewhat reactionary and ill-conceived manner when the macro targets are in danger of being missed. Will those programs work? That is another debate and my short answer is no.
Will those programs present short-term opportunities? They have so far, and I suspect they will continue to do so.
By relying solely on extrapolations on historical trends and statistics, doomers are finding comfort and validation. Thinking is hard and the herd instinct is strong. Those that continually study this rapidly changing real estate environment and respond to real opportunities will greatly benefit. Those who ignore unprecedented events in this unprecedented economic climate will miss opportunities that many not surface again for decades.
Programs have been put in place, some are on the way, and others are now are being cooked up. The only prediction that I think is fair to make is that government will strongly intervene in a somewhat reactionary and ill-conceived manner when the macro targets are in danger of being missed. Will those programs work? That is another debate and my short answer is no.
Will those programs present short-term opportunities? They have so far, and I suspect they will continue to do so.
By relying solely on extrapolations on historical trends and statistics, doomers are finding comfort and validation. Thinking is hard and the herd instinct is strong. Those that continually study this rapidly changing real estate environment and respond to real opportunities will greatly benefit. Those who ignore unprecedented events in this unprecedented economic climate will miss opportunities that many not surface again for decades.
- dacolan
- Contributions:1073
I don't see anything in this article about the demand side. The US still has net household formation, which means more houses will be required each year. Yes we overbuilt so there is plenty of excess supply, and yes we overbought and overpaid so there will be a period of low demand and price drops, but after some time of below average purchases there will be pent up demand to buy.
The other side of this equally worth considering is the much more strict lending standards. Between '03/04 through '07 anyone with a pulse could get a loan for nearly any amount they desired; bad credit, no down payment, can't document your income - no problem.
Moving forward, not only will you be required to demonstrate the capacity, but more and more families with once decent credit are short selling, defaulting, declaring bankruptcy, etc. The pool of "qualified" buyers from just a few years ago has been greatly diminished.
The other side of this equally worth considering is the much more strict lending standards. Between '03/04 through '07 anyone with a pulse could get a loan for nearly any amount they desired; bad credit, no down payment, can't document your income - no problem.
Moving forward, not only will you be required to demonstrate the capacity, but more and more families with once decent credit are short selling, defaulting, declaring bankruptcy, etc. The pool of "qualified" buyers from just a few years ago has been greatly diminished.
- ja8669
- Contributions:1
Thanks for speaking the truth Mr. Rascoff. I am a Realtor in San Diego and I see a slight peak in home prices but that is only because the inventory got sucked up by investors picking up REO's with cash. Now that the moratorium is lifted on foreclosures I see much more REO's heading for the market. I am a bit worried about those investor's paying cash and cutting the true home owner out of the market.
Thanks again for coming on the SPIN ZONE and telling it like it is.
nvchaz: "Zillow's negative equity estimates strike me as a little high," said Richard DeKaser,"
Thanks for the quote from the banker cheerleader:
Richard DeKaser's Experience
*
Founder
Woodley Park Research
(Research industry)
March 2009 — Present (3 months)
*
SVP&Chief Economist
National City Corporation
(Financial Services industry)
October 1999 — March 2009 (9 years 6 months)
*
Senior Financial Economist
Bank of Boston
(Public Company; BKB; Banking industry)
1990 — 1999 (9 years)
maybe you can follow up with something from narblog.realtor or greg swann?
Thanks for the quote from the banker cheerleader:
Richard DeKaser's Experience
*
Founder
Woodley Park Research
(Research industry)
March 2009 — Present (3 months)
*
SVP&Chief Economist
National City Corporation
(Financial Services industry)
October 1999 — March 2009 (9 years 6 months)
*
Senior Financial Economist
Bank of Boston
(Public Company; BKB; Banking industry)
1990 — 1999 (9 years)
maybe you can follow up with something from narblog.realtor or greg swann?
- sunnyview
- Contributions:25115
ja8669, I would love your take on the San diego market in the months to come. I hope you will consider posting your observations on your local market. Another honest ear to the ground in a local market is always very appreciated.
Zillow COO on Bottom Callers
- Spencer Rascoff, Zillow
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