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buy now or wait

Profile picture for mrball
Contributions: 1
Zillow,

I wanted to know is now a good time to buy a home?  I'm a first time buyer and want to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit.  I know that it's going to end Dec1,2009.
Will there or is there already a decision made to extend the expiration date?
Will it still be for first time home buyers only?

Thank you
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November 02 - US
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Answers (27)

Profile picture for jonestim
Contributions: 68
"Is it a good time to buy is completly based on your own situation.  If you are making rent payments of $800 a month - that's $28,000 in three years that you are paying to your land lord to pay his mortgage.  Here in Central Oregon that payment could by you a very nice 3bd/2ba home and you could be putting that money to work for you."

Here in Central Oregon your newly purchased home would probably lose $28,000 in value in the next 6 months.  Many people who buy now will be underwater on their loans by this time next year.   We have 16% unemployment and will probably hit 3500 default notices for the year.  Last year at this time those numbers were 9% and 1928 respectively.   Banks are waiting longer to file the Notice of Default and they are postponing the foreclosures for months. The backlog of shadow inventory will take years to clear - we have too many homes in Central Oregon.  Builders kept building way past demand and home prices will continue to fall for a long time.

Learn about your area.  Do your own research.  Realtors and Mortgage brokers are not the only source of information.  Look for active real estate blogs in your are that get comments from people not in the industry - people that don't make money if you buy.   

Buying now to get the $8k credit would most likely leave me underwater next year in a house that is not as nice as if I just wait for prices to continue to drop as I expect prices to drop at least 20% in the next year here.

Your area may be near a bottom and it may make sense to buy.  Where are you located?
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November 05
The program seems to be certainly extended. The Senate voted on the 4th to extend the program through  next April and to expand it to other buyers who have owned a home for at least 5 years.  Now we all know that we need the House and the Senate to pass a bill and to get the Presidents signature to actually make it a law but the realities of today seem to strongly to indicate an extension of this popular program.
So the answer is its likely to be extended for first time buyers with a $8000 tax credit and expanded to people who have previously owned a home who would qualify for up to a $6500 credit.
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November 05
Profile picture for Pasadenan
Contributions: 6838
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Since January 2009

Cindy -

I've owned a home for a lot longer than you've been selling real estate, and thus I have no reason to rent.  But I certainly didn't pay the outrageous "appraised" rates of the present market.  Two years ago Zillow estimated the value of my house at $970,000.  It has "lost" about $300 thousand of "equity" since.  Two years prior to that, you could have bought a house on a substantially larger lot in the same area for $125k.

Can you say "bubble equity"?

Of course it makes a difference what your "equity" is even if you are not selling since without equity you don't get a loan and sometimes not even a credit card.  Of course I don't need any loans or any additional credit cards.  But most Americans are not in my position.

As for the repairs; I have a fairly good stock of replacement parts, and the skills and tools to do almost any imaginable repair project (including foundation replacement which I have done), so when I get "hit" with a sudden repair cost, it is less than your monthly payment, and less than the monthly rent for most renters.

In this market, I really don't care what a house appraises for.  I only want to know what it will appraise for in 5 years.

And your "CMA"'s are certainly no "appraisal", but just an estimate based on less data than Zillow uses.
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November 04
Profile picture for azrob
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5 to 7 years might not be even a start in many place. While the lowend of the Phoenix market has turned up (might be temporary, due to first time buyer credit, and FED forcing rates down) the mid portion of the market and on up has continued its precipitous fall. Quite simply, the market of half a million and up is going to pancake down on everything under it. A home that today lists for $300K might seem like a good deal, but given the terrible supply/demand imbalance 500K and up has, and mounting foreclosures a 30 to 40% drop of the value of everything in that market seems reasonable.
Today's 500K home is a hell of a lot nicer than today's 300K home, so though we may not see the effect on medium prices, as a homebuyer you sure the hell will.

In addition to the above market dynamics, lets consider a few simple facts.
Rates. Rates are at all time lows, they have nowhere to go, but up. Given current deficit spending, there is a fair chance of a sudden move up sometime in the near/mid future. (tomorrow through 5 years) Say goodbye to 5% mortgages, and hello to 8% (which would still, historically speaking, be good rates) This would smash your theory of "stay in the home 7 years" because the market will quite simply not hold even today's value if rates go up.
Easy lending. We still have easy lending: 3.5% FHA, crappy credit, etc. FHA's losses are mounting, they are quite certainly going bankrupt, Fannie/Freddie, which are already bankrupt are continuing to lose money. At some point, we might have to tighten them up, simply to stem the losses. ANY return to true risk based pricing and lending would take out a ton of today's first time buyers.

In summary, there are many risks out there that could keep housing prices down for decades, even when price/rent makes sense to buy.
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November 04
Profile picture for cindylapeer
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You are right Tiffany that equity alone is not good enough. Buyers have to understand that they should not plan on a quick turnaround. Most of my buyers right now are young first time homebuyers and we talk extensively about staying in the house 5 - 7 years if possible rather than 3 - 5. We are lucky here in the Houston area that we have not seen as much of the decline as some of the other areas of the country. The homes (for the most part) are affordable and often times it is much cheaper to buy than to rent.
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November 04
Profile picture for TiffanyBond
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Since August 2009

The issue is even with a higher appraisal...if enough properties become distressed in an area, then distressed price = market price. Although historically equity may have been a good gauge of success in a distressed purchase, equity is probably not the best way to look at a home as investment in this wonky market (although it is definitely something important to be discussed and considered). With many areas still declining, I usually advocate looking for buy (mortgage, taxes, repair costs, etc) < rent = buy. This way even if prices drop a bit then it still isn't as much of a backward move. This holds particularly true in markets with heavy rentals (for example, one of my homes is in Philadelphia where there are a ton of colleges and therefore a huge amount of renters).

It is good to have an end-game plan that involves a sale for substantially more than you paid for a property, but that just may not happen. The timing could be off, the market could drop, etc, etc. I think it is particularly relevant to evaluate cash flow vs. end game. After all, until you sell, equity is just on paper. But...I'm also in the unique position that I grew up with parents that flipped houses before anyone knew what that was and it definitely wasn't on cable! So I have probably seen a little more of the right and wrong of equity consideration strategies than most.
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November 04
Profile picture for cindylapeer
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I stand corrected Tiffany. In my head, I was thinking of equity as market value minus everything a client had put into a home including down payment. I wan's thinking about only the loan ifself. So, when I say they have "equity," I mean the price they paid for the home and its current market value. My way of thinking is even better for the clients! I do know the difference, so I will pass on the finance class this time. 
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November 04
Profile picture for TiffanyBond
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If your down payment doesn't contribute to your "equity" then you really paid too much for the house. Maybe a finance class is in order?
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November 04
Profile picture for jkonstant
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Since May 2009

With unemplyment above 12% in Punta Gorda and fast approaching that number throughout the state, it is fair to say, there will be a better time to buy soon enough.

Yes there are pockets of improvement scattered throughout the country, but the fact remains that shelter remains too expensive no matter where you are and it is far better for everbody that prices continue to fall. It should not take two incomes to put a roof over your head.

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November 04
Profile picture for cindylapeer
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I don't understand what you mean by down payment equity. If you paid it in down payment, it is not equity. And yes, a lot of these properties are distress sales, but that doesn't mean that the equity isn't there. Otherwise, the investors that are flipping properties couldn't do it. The property has to appraise and if the appraisal is over the amount paid for the house, that's equity. And with a lot of appraisers comping the properties at the sales price b/c they are concerned about getting in trouble, when an appraisal comes back higher, my clients and I feel pretty good about that. Or when a home just like yours sells for $100k over what you paid just a year after you bought, that's equity. And it happens. Maybe not all the time, but it does happen.

And if you are happier renting b/c you think there are too many costs involved in buying a home, then continue to rent. It really doesn't matter to me. No hard feelings at all. I'm not going to spend much time trying to convince you otherwise. It's not all about the cost. There is a certain intrinsic satisfaction in owning a home and you can't put a dollar amount on that. And if you don't see owning your own home as valuable, you won't understand what I'm talking about. I'm not trying to be rude, but just like I can't understand renting for all my life, you can't understand why anyone would want to own their home. It's a personal decision.
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November 04
Profile picture for Pasadenan
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Since January 2009

"Built in equity"?  You mean "down payment" equity?  Or "bubble equity"?  Or temporary speculation and tax incentive hype equity?  Or you mean the seller had to dump the house quick due to a lost job?

All I can say is don't count on any "equity" that is not based on the actual intrinsic value and condition of the property after all "bubble" factors have been removed.  And if you overpay, you don't get that money back.  But considering how much you will be paying for property tax, maintenance, and insurance, maybe the actual extra cost is not that important?  For most people it is still worse than renting as one is still making those monthly payments, will still get nothing back for it, and will be HIT with unexpected sudden maintenance costs.

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November 03
Profile picture for cindylapeer
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Ultimately, after doing your homework (checking comps and the price changes in your local market), the decision is going to be yours. There are many people who would tell you to wait and there are just as many who will tell you to buy now. But either way, the decision has to make sense for you in your life. I've helped many first time homebuyers buy homes in which their payment is far less than what they were paying in a rental and they have purchased with built-in equity. It made sense for them. However, there are buyers who had to hold off b/c timing was wrong. Talk to an agent in your area; in fact talk to several. Not all of us are all about the bottom dollar. As cliche as it might sound, we are here to build relationships for a lifetime and putting clients in bad situations now will only come back to bite us in the future. Again, ultimately, this major decision is yours and yours alone. Good luck b/c it is a big decision.
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November 03
Profile picture for luvefl
Contributions: 1

Sunnyview's answer was the best i read. Depending on your circumstances this may be a good time to buy, but do look before you leap. Whatever you decide....GOOD LUCK !!

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November 03
Profile picture for Caveat Emptor
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market watcher, i agree with you, but in this instance your statements are about as well supported as NAR's statements... next time link to "govt reports", or cite specific numbers.
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November 03
Profile picture for azrob
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Punta gorda "according to hoyle boil..."

median price was 460 on zillow in late 2005, now down to 270K... and dropped 16% in the last 12 months...

I think we have an answer to his question, "who is stupid?"
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November 03
Based on all the government reports the housing market is crashing. Don't trust anything the NAR says, you could get hurt badly since their interests don't match yours.

You could simply wait for a few more months and get more than $8000 off the house price.

In the meantime stay put and keep a keen eye on the housing market news. When it stabilizes there will be plenty of signs consistently for a long period.

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November 03
Profile picture for Pasadenan
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I think what they meant was that if you snooze, Bob  &  Bill loose.

The "million dollar question" was already answered close to a million times, at least 1000 times here on Zillow.  The government is investing BILLIONS to keep the market inflated to maintain a tax base and keep people from walking from the homes as the unemployment rate is still rising, another back log of 3 more years at 1.5 times the present "foreclosure rate" of mortgage defaults, and a banking industry that is on the verge of insolvency.  They will only keep the market propped up until inflation has devalued to dollar to the present house market values, so you lose either way.

Bob   &  Bill are just lying to you.  They know for a fact that if people in the houses that they sold to them within the past 5 years had to liquidate them, that they would not even "break even" after subtracting their realtor fees and other transaction costs.  And they also know they didn't factor in maintenance costs on their comparison to rentals, not the loss in equity as the market is continuing the adjust across the nation.

If they really believed the garbage they are telling you, they wouldn't be "selling" houses, they would be "buying" them.
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November 03
Profile picture for klarek the realist
Contributions: 6698
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"The Oregon Assoc of Realtors have been pushing for an extestion"

well of course they have, it helps their bottom line.  they don't care if it hurts the economy, whatever lines their pockets, right?

"Yes there will still be the Option-Arms and Foreclosures etc but over-all, the prices have hit bottom here approx. 4 months ago.
Of course it could always get worse.
Of course you could let your life pass you by too.
Time will tell. Write me back later when you see I was right."

Guys like you make these thoughtless claims, then disappear from these forums forever.  Most of us long-timers (2+ years) have called it right from the beginning.  I'll take your typical agent predictions (fed to you by NAR) over my own common sense and analysis the same day I decide to jump into a wood chipper.

Guess what?  We KNEW that the market would bounce when this stupid tax credit was offered.  In nearly every market, there is not a fundamentally-supported "bottom" to this market.  I'm sure an industry genius such as yourself has looked at studies of historical price trends, inflation, median household income, interest rates, and aggregate supply/demand models.  Or maybe you're just pulling predictions out of your rear end like all agents do, without any thought or credibility behind them.
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November 03
Profile picture for lukerummell
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 75
I am doing well with the program' And Colorado and Oregon in The luxury market has been my godsend...
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November 02
Profile picture for sunnyview
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Obviously not everyone lives in the same market so accusing others of being doom and gloomers might be a bit misplaced depending on their area. You stated that you "haven't missed yet", so I guess that I can I assume that you advised all your FL clients to sell before Spring 2006. Truth is people very few buy at the ultimate bottom, but it doesn't really matter in the end. Most buyers can still do well when they learn all they can about their local market and seek true property value over hype. I do wish you the best with your fishing. I hear the FL fish are gianormous.
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November 02
Profile picture for lukerummell
Real Estate Agent
Contributions: 75

The Oregon Assoc of Realtors have been pushing for an extestion

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November 02
Maybe some of you doom and gloomers sell to only first time home buyers but I have not sold a single one of those since the program has been out. (Top Producer and Awards every year since 1987/Sold over 2,500 properties at auction including commercial, residential, retail, businesses, golf courses, schools, land,  an island and more)
Since our marketplace has been noticed and recommended as the top spot to retire, the baby boomers have been smart and geting some pretty good buys.
Perhaps you might want to check the payment reports to see that many are on time with their payments in our neck of the wods right now and that for every 13 homes sold, there's been 2 new listed for several weeks/months.
Yes there will still be the Option-Arms and Foreclosures etc but over-all, the prices have hit bottom here approx. 4 months ago.
Of course it could always get worse.
Of course you could let your life pass you by too.
Time will tell. Write me back later when you see I was right.
Have not missed yet but I'm only human.
Good luck in your market but ours is pretty good and life is good here in my tropical paradise.
How about you? Who's stupid? Want to go fishing?
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November 02
Profile picture for Caveat Emptor
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That's been the 3 Million Dollar Question for the last 2 years(2 years ago agents were also then saying that it was the best time to buy in more than a decade, EXACT same pitch, but whatever)however whether you take advantage of the Tax Credit or not, it's the time to buy.

and every time i have said, in the last 3 years, to keep waiting, it has been the better advice. now, waiting is still the better advice. now isn't the worst time to buy by a long shot, but you can probably still save yourself 25%+ on the home by waiting for a few years.

but at this moment you could probably save yourself at least that, by waiting for 1
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November 02
Profile picture for klarek the realist
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Since September 2009

"it makes sense to get out and buy right now. Don't wait until spring. Don't wait until after the Holidays or anything else for that matter."

Bill, that's pretty stupid.  After the huge flux of buyers jumped into the shark tank for their $8000, wouldn't it be better to wait and watch the market crumble since the demand now will be so low?  Getting in now when prices are temporarily inflated due to the $8k tax credit is a pretty poor strategy, in my opinion.
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November 02
Profile picture for sunnyview
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Since January 2009

I think it really depends on where you are located, what your motivations are for buying and what your market trends look like. Zillow has some information on local markets here and you can also get more information by zip code by clicking on the chart on any given house page. You can also get more information about days on market, historical values in your area and an analysis of the market pressures on prices up/down from a local realtor in your area. 

As far as I've read, at this point there is no decision about extending the credit, but the current credit has moved prices up in many local markets in the last 3-4 months. You have to get as much information as you can, make sure you know your local market and do not rush to buy in order to collect the tax credit at the expense of other important things. Home ownership is a big decision. The buyers credit can help you, but you need to make your decision to buy without letting it influence you too much.
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November 02
Mr. Ball,

That's been the 3 Million Dollar Question for the last 2 years however whether you take advantage of the Tax Credit or not, it's the time to buy.
Here's why; I have been watching the inventory over the last 4-6 months go down.
Lately, it's gone down at a substantial rate. That coupled with many other factors means that prices will start to rise.
It will be at a moderate rate, approx. 2% per annum in my estimation over the next 6-8 months.
When you consider a bit higher pricing, the rates possibly going up slightly and then the selctions; it makes sense to get out and buy right now. Don't wait until spring. Don't wait until after the Holidays or anything else for that matter.
If you're seriously looking to take advantage of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and you're not one of those perpetual procrastinators, get out and buy! (Snooze You Lose!)
In fact, the best deals have already gone to the savvy people that already bought.
Good Luck and enjoy your new home!
Bill Hoyle
The According To Hoyle Group-Sun Realty
SW Florida
bill@accordingtohoyle.com
941-235-3528
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November 02
Profile picture for laynebo

mrball,

I'm not sure what part of the country you are in, but in most areas we are starting see what could be the "BOTTOM",  of course only time will tell.

Is it a good time to buy is completly based on your own situation.  If you are making rent payments of $800 a month - that's $28,000 in three years that you are paying to your land lord to pay his mortgage.  Here in Central Oregon that payment could by you a very nice 3bd/2ba home and you could be putting that money to work for you.

As for the the tax credit.  There is talk about extending through April and give those who are in contract by that time until June to close.  Again we are all waiting to see if this will happen, but with or without it, it is my opinion that this is one of the best "BUYERS" markets we may see for a long time.

Thansk

Bob

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November 02
 

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